Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Scott Ales]

Here is the real litmus test. If you can go out and buy a used Model S soon because it is such a horrible car then I will concede.

Guess what, that won't happen. All the analysts, testers, and want to be writers are way wrong. Tesla changed the world no matter what happens. It would be a shame for the entrenched interest to benefit from Tesla's loss but I do admit it is a distinct possibility.

My $165k is down to $25k now, the pain is over and I'm sitting tight till all the options expire. I'll always have the solace that I was a positive part of the greatest ca company ever created.

I'm very concerned the tables have turned and many are going to cut bait and run.

I don't think this drop can be stopped.

 

[mmd]

stop the nonsense ,nothing you say matters

Yes. I'm here to read the borderline lunatic comments posted by most commenters day and night

 

[FredTMC]

Excellent time for a Google to do an investment in Tesla. Couple billion would be great. capital raise for Model 3 tooling ramp-up etc

 

[FluxCap]

The problem for Tesla is that LG - or Samsung, they are an archrival and will fight LG hard - can sell these EV components to any large car maker (not just limited to cells and/or battery packs):



It's not just about a lonely GM Bolt or its design.

There will be dozens of EVs / PHEVs coming by 2020 (likely more than anticipated a few months ago because of VW's Dieselgate).

I mentioned that scenario months ago and was mostly ridiculed because there was apparently no credible long-range EV competition.

Oh good grief, of course today is the day tftf decides to come back and concoct TSLA hit pieces.

 

[tftf]

How is my interpretation of this GM-LG news lunatic? Why shouldn't it matter to Tesla?

Here it is with some comments from InsideEVs added:

GM And LG Teamed Up Intimately To Produce Chevrolet Bolt, Lots Of LG Inside

Ignore these developments at your own peril.

 

[eloder]

Did you read the GM-LG press release? Why doesn't it matter? It's highly relevant to Tesla short- and long-term imho.

Of course, the huge drop today was mainly because of the poor CR report...but long-term, the LG-GM news and reiterated late 2016 production date for the Bolt will matter even more imho.

Anyone relying on LG Chem batteries will not be a credible M3 or MS/X competitor short-term, mostly due to the inability for LG to supply many vehicles. They'll have a hard cap of--best estimates--somewhere around Leaf sale numbers for all manufacturers combined.

Its strange because other car manufacturies already drives around in europe whit autopilot (Mercedes s class and a few more).

Tesla autopilot is leagues ahead of those systems found in competitors.

 

[esk8mw]

hoping I caught the falling knife. Jan17 $200 calls @ 40. Order in to buy more shares @ $200, let's see if it will fill.

 

[eepic]

Not really. Consumer Reports has their rules, and the rules for a recommended vehicle require high scores in the road/usability tests, (which the Model S absolutely destroyed) and "average" or better reliability. The Model S, according to the results of 1400 customer surveys, is below average from a reliability standpoint. Now that it has been on the market for 3 years, the data better represents long-term ownership of the car. But it also means any improvements to the Model S reliability that have been made recently will not be reflected well, because owners haven't had the car long enough to see these improvements in reliability. I do expect this will improve over time as Tesla gets even better at manufacturing. But that doesn't help their reliability scores today.

It's interesting that 97% of these owners said they would buy the car again, and this customer satisfaction is #1 in CR's ranking. So do I think the market is over-reacting? Yes. But do I think CR is "exaggerating?" No.

Tesla's best reaction to this would be to acknowledge it, say that they're improving things every day, customer service is their #1 priority, reinforce the fact that nearly all of these service calls have been covered under warranty at no cost to customers and loaners have been provided for any extended service issues. And also remind people of the 97% customer satisfaction rating.

If Musk pulls out another ill-advised Twitter attack - against CR no less - he will only make things worse. Acknowledge, reinforce commitment to quality, promise better and move on.

+1 to this. Fair criticism on Tesla, but a clear overreaction to TSLA as reliability has never been that strong so it shouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

[sub]

The problem for Tesla is that LG - or Samsung, they are an archrival and will fight LG hard - can sell these EV components to any large car maker (not just limited to cells and/or battery packs):



It's not just about a lonely GM Bolt or its design.

There will be dozens of EVs / PHEVs coming by 2020 (likely more than anticipated a few months ago because of VW's Dieselgate).

I mentioned that scenario months ago and was mostly ridiculed because there was apparently no credible long-range EV competition.

You state this as though it's an either/or and not a both. This has been pointed out a million times, how many ICE cars does Toyota, GM etc sell? Yet BMW, Porsche etc all still happily exist. Why is that? Because some people like me will never buy garbage from GM, period, and I don't like riding around in tin can Toyota's either (my vintage Landcruiser being an exception).

When all you do is bash a company at every possible moment, people stop listening to anything you say. You have been "tuned out". I can always expect guys like you to pop in this thread at moments like this screaming the sky is falling yet hear nothing from you on good news days. Moaing (sp?) will be here any moment I'm sure.

 

[eepic]

How is my interpretation of this GM-LG news lunatic? Why shouldn't it matter to Tesla?

Here it is with some comments from InsideEVs added:

GM And LG Teamed Up Intimately To Produce Chevrolet Bolt, Lots Of LG Inside

Ignore these developments at your own peril.

Because it's good news for Tesla, not bad news as you are trying to spin it. More serious EV programs means public charging infrastructure build out.

If you're going to go on about how EVs are a niche market and this will crowd the space, then I (and most others here) disagree and believe it's one overall car market. If the Bolt AND Model 3 are compelling, there's no reason why they won't sell like hotcakes in lieu of gas cars.

 

[aznt1217]

Debating on what to do. I'm sitting pretty because I have a low cost basis, but the call options are looking extremely lucrative. What are people doing with 1+ year holding periods?

 

[Noble Ninja]

TFTF (Tales From The Future), I've seen all your posts on SeekingAlpha and here, and all you ever do is bash TSLA every chance you get, exaggerating and conjecturing scenarios. You sound like all the short investors on SeekingAlpha like cparmarlee, potpie and logical thought.

 

[mmd]

How is my interpretation of this GM-LG news lunatic? Why shouldn't it matter to Tesla?

TFTF, My comment wasn't for you Partly because of this ultra-bullish, blind to everything negative board, people like Scott Alles lost huge sums today. Wish you all good luck.

 

[FluxCap]

TFTF (Tales From The Future), I've seen all your posts on SeekingAlpha and here, and all you ever do is bash TSLA every chance you get, exaggerating and conjecturing scenarios. You sound like all the short investors on SeekingAlpha like cparmarlee, potpie and logical thought.

I'm pretty sure he is a paid plant.

 

[Bobbyducati]

i hope we hit bottom already. possible turn here.

 

[farzyness]

So 2012 and 2013 model cars bringing down the score of a continuously evolving car which has a 97% satisfaction rating despite all the reports regarding reliability. Any reason not to be a buyer?

 

[esk8mw]

Looks like Tesla provided a measured response, highlighting customer service and satisfaction scores. Good.

 

[dha]

Looks like Tesla provided a measured response, highlighting customer service and satisfaction scores. Good.

link?

 

[esk8mw]

So 2012 and 2013 model cars bringing down the score of a continuously evolving car which has a 97% satisfaction rating despite all the reports regarding reliability. Any reason not to be a buyer?

My only short-term concern is bad Q3 earnings and/or missing 50k cars will send the SP to $180 or so. Of course, I'll just buy more shares if that happens.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I tried to sell a naked call when the markets opened and TOS came back and said I did not have enough firepower. Dammit.