I have been buying today. A few shares, June 220s/Jan'17 200s. Only about 10% of available cash. I will continue to DCA both calls and stock. I see a rebound coming but we still have Q3ER/CC and awaiting confirmation of first Sig production/deliveries. Still waiting for J '18s and trying to decide if leverage there is better than stock.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Of course, Gross Margin trickles down. But the big problem with this argument is the assumption that cell capacity exists is false. It's not there yet-- otherwise there would be no point in a gigafactory. Competition is heating up... this slays me. Based on what? Plans that of a car that will be released in 3 years?
Nobody is underestimaing LG's ability to ramp up at all, but the fact of the matter is the Gigafactory is starting production in q1 2016. That's real. Please send me plans to LG's next battery plant dedicated to high capacity Li-On automotive cells.
Folks - this is 2013 all over again. Tesla is gaining some serious momentum again in the public eye (Model X, Autopilot, Model 3). All of the issues cited by CR are based on 2012 and 2013 cars which were well chronicled with their reliability issues. However, part of why Tesla has a 97% approval rating is due to Tesla's willingness to asses and fix the issue so quickly and effectively.
Buy and hold as been the key strategy for TSLA since its inception - this move is due to a well-known and now rectified issue that is lagging about 2 years behind reality.
Buy and hold as been the key strategy for TSLA since its inception - this move is due to a well-known and now rectified issue that is lagging about 2 years behind reality.
Perfectlogic
Member
Sure the production capacity for batteries doesn't exist today but just like Tesla is ramping up production, LG is doing the same. The competition is heating up because the Bolt will be released next year (a year earlier than the Model 3) with more than 200 miles of range at the same price range. Most other car companies have also recently said that they are now very serious about their BEV plans.
^^^ This. When people ask me what I love about my Tesla and would I recommend it, I explain that I *love* being a "beta tester" and that I *expected* problems and have been *thrilled* with how responsive the service centers are and how ingeniously proactive engineering can be because they have instrumented all the cars to diagnose/predict problems and remediate them so effectively (with tech service bulletins, design changes and mfg line improvements). I think a lot of the early "fit and finish" issues have been eradicated (remember the windshield cracks? And door handles? I know they've gone through a couple of refinement runs on those, and I don't hear anywhere near the volume of issues now)
The only thing I disagree with "nothing to be done in the short term but hold" - I think this is a huge buying opportunity.
People on this fourm need to stop attacking those that present a valid viewpoint. I believe that these high flying targets of $350 $450 etc. are reddiculous. Remember the mission of Tesla is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" not "be the largest, most profitable car company in the world". Technically if all the big car makers recognize the risk of Tesla and ramp up fast enough that Tesla never takes over the world, Tesla is still considered successful but $TSLA will look like a ****** investment which won't move out of its current trading range for a decade.
Right. So what does the argument hinge on? The LG Chem battery plant has been making the packs for the Volt so using the time frame, they should have had a Gigafactory now... but they don't. Let's assume Apples to Apples that Tesla and LG Chem make their battery plants at the same time at the same scale (which I highly doubt), who has more control over gross margins for the car, GM or Tesla?
You're getting to my point that I was trying to express for tftf. He was basically presenting an argument that said this was mutually exclusive. It's not.
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I agree a million times, but when people present arguments that have a poor basis or comp set, I rage hard like a P90D. I also think the high flying targets are crazy as well, but you need to remember it's just a straight DCF calc off of ten years to help people understand potential growth (you know this already but others might now).
And yes, it's not to be the most profitable company in the world, but Tesla's been around presenting "business cases" for 10 years and the giants are still sleeping for some stupid reason. So if that's what it takes to be the biggest and most profitable car company in the world to make others make BEV's... so be it.
For me, I'm all out of cash and not willing to go margin on this due to misinformation. The biggest thing is the stationary storage that I don't think is priced into a lot of the analysts' models. That's an easy 20B addition to Market Cap right there.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
After a quick charge at Effingham SuperCharger in Illinois, the autopilot Model S is again on the road to complete the coast to coast trip to NYC, more news out tomorrow.
BTW got rid of the remaining 10% of my protective puts today.
Hope this was a good decision
Good luck all.
Just a quick update on the current deliveries in some countries like Switzerland.
The figures below provides some context on other car manufacturers taking market share with their BEVs from Tesla Motors, enjoy this, this is epic (thank's LST):
BTW got rid of the remaining 10% of my protective puts today.
Hope this was a good decision
Good luck all.
Just a quick update on the current deliveries in some countries like Switzerland.
The figures below provides some context on other car manufacturers taking market share with their BEVs from Tesla Motors, enjoy this, this is epic (thank's LST):
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Please spare us your prediction , which is no better than those you denigrate.
This is the same ill-logic I have seen used against AAPL for the past 15 years and it has always been wrong. People will pay more for genuine innovation and quality. Copycats have to compete on price which drives their margins toward zero or below. That doesn't necessarily apply to market leaders.
Perfectlogic
Member
They shouldn't have a gigafactory by now because the demand isn't there yet, if they had expanded capacity that much by now it would have been a mistake and the low utilization rate of their capacity would weigh down their GM.
Something I have learned in my studies of the market is that contrary to what might seem logical at first, being the most vertically integrated company isn't always the best. Take Apple for example, arguably the most succesful company today (highest mkt cap by far), they still aren't vertically integrated even though they have huge amounts of cash on hand and is a mature company (Foxconn produces their phones). Another example is the solar industry that is ridden with bankruptcies of companies that tried to bite off more than they could chew and was crushed under the weight of the debt left by extreme capex.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
My impression as well, this exceeds some German car manufacturers change management process.
More and quicker increments.
Just remember the early Roadster times.
They faced some really tough decisions (gear box change to single speed) and just resolved the issues.
This is the reason why Tesla Motors does not fear sharing some of their patents cause as soon as somebody else is able to integrate the tech of a patent into it's own tech, Tesla Motors again is one step ahead.
BTW positive note from Stifel already out?
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Daily range: $39.70 - $55 for these calls. Can't believe I left $0.30 on the table! :wink:
How does that make any sense. The Gigafactory needs to be there so there is gross margin on a lower price car that has to be made to bring forth the demand that is there. What comes first? The car which requires the factory... or the demand? The materialization of demand only presents itself if there is a product there. If you build it they will come... and if it sucks they won't. If they extended the capacity, the economies of scale (in theory) would enable them to recapture more GM and recoup the investment faster. That's not the problem. The problem is nobody took the time to expand to the scale Tesla is doing with the gigafactory, not until it actually comes to fruition. LG/Samsung/etc. aren't companies that take huge risks. They'll wait until somebody else does.
Please define your studies of the market. Obviously being vertically integrated isn't the best this is a given, but when executed properly for the core components like Tesla has control over gross margins (which was the whole point TFTF was bringing about is better) and profit control and retention is significantly better because the most cost prohibitive part is the battery in the EV. Tesla only vertically integrates when it's forced to. In manufacturing Apple obvously sourced from different suppliers because the products are signficantly easier to make and ship easier.
Big-T
Member
I hope so, the one thing that stuck with me from the CR report was that if the first year or two production of the 3 series has a similar percentage of reliability issues as the S, Tesla would likely be unable to handle the service volume very well, given the expected production rate. I'll be keeping an eye out on reliability rankings of the X series. If they're better then I can belive the 3 series will be better as well. If the first year or two of X series production has similar reliability ratings then that may be a problem come the model 3.
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
Respectfully...
I don't really buy into the logic that the electric car business is a zero sum game. The pie is growing. Other automakers getting into the business only lends more credibility in EVs in general. So on balance GM, Nissan, VW, Volvo, etc getting into it is a good thing even for Tesla.
However what I am seeing here with these LG related announcements is that "everyone" other than Tesla is going to LG for batteries and EV related equipment. There is great opportunity for Tesla to differentiate themselves from the rest of the pack (increase their share of the pie). Essentially everyone else is going to build a LG car with their own badge slapped on it. It's been understood for a long time that most automakers out-source almost everything except their internal combustion engines. Now they are going to build cars without ICEs and outsource the only thing that was "theirs" (the powertrain).
Tesla has the powertrain, the software, and the charging infrastructure under their control. Basically everything needed for an EV. It is Tesla's opportunity to differentiate against LG. Everyone else is hitched to the technology and manufacturing capacity of LG. Yet, LG (nor anyone other than Tesla) doesn't have the rest of the EV ecosystem (dealers or charging infrastructure) in place to support the product.
I see it as Tesla's moat is still in place, the sky is not falling. We have gone from absolutely no EV commitment/ridiculing EVs from the majors to a half hearted "greenwashing" type commitment. Still a long way to go for real Tesla pie-eating competition.
The other reservation I have with this CR report is they are equally weighting issues in reliability. Drive trains-- I'll give them that. But for screen freezes and things that a nip/tuck issues and non-critical to core functionality of driving I don't agree with. These are relatively smaller things to deal with and can be remedied with a reset or something. I'll take these issues over a MB transmission or suspension giving out any day.
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This by 1000%. I wrote it in my other posts. Too many people are treating things mutually exclusive. It's what sells though... "Tesla Killers"... in 2017,8,9
Perfectlogic
Member
Sure Tesla needed to build the gigafactory to make sure they had the battery supply for their expansion plans, I agree. I am just saying that trying to break into two industries that is very capital intensive with low margins is a big mouthful and it carries a risk. If the competition heats up too much or Tesla extecutes poorly they may have trouble raising needed capital at competetive cost. That said if competition doesn't heat up too much and Tesla has great execution the opportunity for SP appreciation is large. Just trying to balance the discussion a bit here.
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