Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[doctoxics]

The street's problem with Tesla right now is the uncertainty in the Model X launch. Model X sales are needed to pay for expansion of manufacturing, sales and service. The lack of delivery dates in the Model X threads is telling us that there is a problem with the launch. We don't know the exact nature of the problem(s) or when they will be resolved. A lot of uncertainty until we are updated on Tuesday. We need certainty to move TSLA up.

 

[Scott Ales]

The street's problem with Tesla right now is the uncertainty in the Model X launch. Model X sales are needed to pay for expansion of manufacturing, sales and service. The lack of delivery dates in the Model X threads is telling us that there is a problem with the launch. We don't know the exact nature of the problem(s) or when they will be resolved. A lot of uncertainty until we are updated on Tuesday. We need certainty to move TSLA up.

The "Problem" appears to be the same as most of the problems in the past. Getting it right. I specifically recall Elon stating how unhappy customers would be to receive their new Model S sedan without the trunk carpet! The lack of trunk carpet was slowing production of the MS.

I agree with this contributing significantly to the down-line, but I refer to it as a "delay" not a problem. Something you would think would be more routinely accepted by now given the time-line track record of Tesla. Fisker hit their times pretty well, right? Oh yeah, on time but lack luster product.

I can wait for my new cars and I understand they all may be 1-3 years late. They're worth it!

Again, I agree it is impacting the stock value.

 

[MitchJi]

Yeah, this stuff still holds. What's interesting is that things would progress so quickly. I suspect much of the utility and gas industries thought they had another 5 years of gas peaker dominance. Many utilities like Southern Company and Duke have been investing heavily in natural gas, even buying upstream production and distribution assets. But now batteries are jumping directly from pausibly economical to making it hard to justify anything but batteries.

I'm not sure if the utilities will figure this out, but with batteries it probably doesn't make much sense to have plants dedicated to only be used as peakers.

I think they will make the 50k target, but I also don't believe a miss is completely priced in. I believe that knowing there is a miss is worse than thinking they will probably miss. I don't think that the SP will fully recover until they start producing 500-800 MX per week, but if they strongly claim that they can do that as soon as they get parts I think that will help.

 

[Drax7]

You are right. Mobileye took care of most things. On the Tesla side, a few engineers who can actually understand the API and configure the parameters is necessary so that crashes on demo day does not happen. The fact that this needs connection to the mothership and requiring a huge battery is something that's unique to TSLA.

Also, the fact that electric motor with precise feedbacks allows Mobileye to have smoother control. This explains why it is so much smoother on a TSLA. As they do not have to handle the special cases of how much slippage there are between input and output.

So for the other manufacturers to get it right. They need 1~2 years for integration. At least 1 year for road testing. Integrate more precise acceleration and braking feedback (hardware electronic change, Hardware braking system change, motor modification). A way to update data over the air (Software engineering). Data center to store the data (Engineer with cloud data center experience, administrators for cloud servers). These can be worked on in parallel. Assuming they are already 1 year into their research, it'll take about 2 more years for a competing one to come out. What I mean by this, is taking advantage of deep learning to smooth out the experience over time as that requires internet connection.

The biggest obstacle I see for traditional ICE manufacturer, is that an ICE car's gear shifting mechanism that causes an instantaneous increase or decrease in acceleration. This always present a messed up situation with Automatic gain controls that are necessary to adjust acceleration/deceleration. If anything, the ICE manufacturers will have to switch to an ICE + electric motor combination or only deploy it on their Hybrid for now. Again, TSLA might have stumbled into this synergy with their 1 speed transmission here from 10 years ago, or Elon had the foresight to force this implementation because he saw this problem coming with AP 10 years down the road.

What TSLA is probably doing at the same time to prepare for fully automated driving is the google way. Which means HD mapping data because they already got all the component in place. This part is outside of the scope of MobilEye's API. My guess is, it'll be released once the rest of the industry catches upto the current AP.

Thanks for explaning car integration .
Mobileye expects the eyeq4 processor chip supplied with 8 cameras will allow for autonomous driving.
That is expected in 2017. Active safety is first and foremost , and that is operational now.

 

[Lump]

Should get some attention,
http://www.streetinsider.com/Inside...ture+in+Effort+to+Slow+Bleeding/11022719.html

Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) is ending one of the key services it offered to customers as the company looks to stem its cash outflow.
According to market reports, Tesla will end its $100 Ranger service, which was a service tech sent by the company to repair a broken-down Model S. The tech could either fix the vehicle on the spot, or have it towed to a handful of global service centers.
The $100 was a flat-fee regardless of how far from a service center the customer was.

 

[JRP3]

Also:

After less than one week of the official release of version 7 update in Asia, the Hong Kong Transport Department has officially issued a press release and a warning letter to the vehicle manufacturer. The letter requested the manufacturer to remove the update and take follow up action to the owners who have already updated the software roll back to the version without this new autopilot feature.

http://insideevs.com/hong-kong-transport-department-pulls-plug-tesla-version-7-auto-pilot-feature/

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Also: http://insideevs.com/hong-kong-transport-department-pulls-plug-tesla-version-7-auto-pilot-feature/

Honk Kong Transport Department envious of Tesla for such an advanced feature like the autopilot IMO.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I was really expecting a pre-announcement on earnings. This is going to be an interesting 48 hours.

 

[Bobbyducati]

not a bad start today, not what i was expecting, but def what i was hoping for.

 

[Bobbyducati]

moved out of my short term holdings on this latest bump for positive gains (minus a batch of puts i want as insurance for tomorrow/wed). I'm admittedly very down on the stock lately, so I just have a hard time thinking the markets not going to act negatively, thus making some cash on the puts. If the stock does go up I have some (essentially) worthless dec calls that could come back to life a little bit of cash. Good luck everyone.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Jeep Sales Soar Again as Shoppers Disregard Quality Ratings - Bloomberg Business

Last month, Consumer Reports readers ranked the sport utility vehicle line the second-least-reliable in the U.S. market, leading only Fiat. If quality alone mattered, Jeep would be doomed to the bargain bin.

Instead Jeep is, by any other measure, a massive hit. The iconic brand is closing in on a second-straight year as the fastest-growing major auto line in the U.S. Sales in the market rose 23 percent this year through September, outpacing second-place Subaru’s 14 percent, after soaring 41 percent last year. Jeep, along with Ram, is the main moneymaker for the third-largest automaker in the U.S., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.

“Jeep reminds me of the European sports cars of the late ’50s and ’60s,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst with Autotrader.com. “They were just nightmares in terms of quality and reliability, but people still loved them. Jeep is unique. People of all ages really aspire to owning one. It has a certain cachet, regardless of the surveys.”

America’s renewed affection for trucks and SUVs, deepened by available credit, affordable fuel and the latest technology, is pushing auto sales to the highest level in at least a decade, helping fuel Jeep’s expansion...

 

[theschnell]

Hi,

Jeep Sales Soar Again as Shoppers Disregard Quality Ratings - Bloomberg Business

You couldn't give me a Jeep if it was under the condition that I had to keep it and use it. The operating costs alone on those beasts is a nightmare, much less actually spending good money to buy one. I can't imagine they would be fun to drive either, but I have to admit I have not driven one anytime recently. Sorry about possibly offending all the Jeep owners out there... I just don't understand how some Americans can be so short-sighted. Gas prices will go back up. I don't know when. It may be 5 -10 years from now, but they will go back up, and that Jeep will be expensive to fuel as well as expensive to maintain.

On a more relevant note. Will this amateur hour stock price hold today?

 

[EarlyAdopter]

TSLA spiking up on no news. It would appear someone just covered their short position. Massive buy.

 

[farzyness]

TSLA spiking up on no news. It would appear someone just covered their short position. Massive buy.

Looks like it's just following general NASDAQ move, no?

 

[austinEV]

I don't understand, the numbers next to TSLA are green. What happened to the red? Did someone change it?

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Looks like it's just following general NASDAQ move, no?

TSLA up 3.00%. NASDAQ up 0.8%. That's nearly 4x to 1. Plus, the chart on the NAS is more gradual. There was a single large buy in TSLA around 9:40. Big block trade. Followed by a series of additional large block trades for 5 minutes. Definitely someone big placing a buy campaign.

 

[Scott Ales]

moved out of my short term holdings on this latest bump for positive gains (minus a batch of puts i want as insurance for tomorrow/wed). I'm admittedly very down on the stock lately, so I just have a hard time thinking the markets not going to act negatively, thus making some cash on the puts. If the stock does go up I have some (essentially) worthless dec calls that could come back to life a little bit of cash. Good luck everyone.

I just studied my positions carefully again with today's bump. I'm going to just hold it out. The little bit of value to exit and punch back in lower is minuscule. If my Jan. Mar. 16 close worthless it is a 10% swing at this point. With my luck I would exit and re-enter just when it peaked again!

It's volatile now and will be for some time. I knew that going in and accept it. No tears.

 

[phigment]

What did I miss? Why the spike?

 

[austinEV]

What did I miss? Why the spike?

Ridiculously oversold and weak shorts panicking. Take your pick.

 

[Cattledog]

What did I miss? Why the spike?

I think everyone is remembering that Elon and TSLA are at their best when everyone is bailing and jumping ship. I expect good news on referral program, stationary storage, Model X production start-up, Auto-Pilot early numbers and maybe a wiggle that they will produce 50K cars and do their best to get them all delivered. Perhaps we'll get another 'fish jumping into the barrel gem'.