Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FluxCap]

Here's the DJ headline.

Tesla Sets $81,200 Price for Base Model X SUV - WSJ

 

[Scott Ales]

Tesla is burning the midnight oil my friends! They're going to shock everyone with the 4th quarter I think.

I received a call from Tesla Sales on Saturday at 7:48 est. I missed the call but was able to speak with a representative today. They invited me to move my production up to take delivery just before the holidays instead of Jan. 2016. I presumed that was the reason for the call and was anxious to hear how they would handle me declining their offer. Would I get a hard sell like all other car sales people? Would they grind on me or play games with some invented risk if I didn't take advantage of this wonderful opportunity?

NO!


I explained to him that I preferred to acquire the 2016 vs 2015. The representative kindly accepted my answer instantly and replied "I completely understand Sir, thank you for the consideration." he then asked if I had any other questions he could answer. I can't tell you how thrilled I was at the response. It was exactly as I had hoped and drives yet another nail in the coffin of the old franchise dealer system!! Even though I am sure they are working every angle to meet production numbers, they did not pressure me. Pure class my friends. These are the things that drive the value of a company.

Good luck Tesla killers, you've all got a long way to go.

Go Tesla!!

 

[hockeythug]

You would have received a 2016 VIN either way.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The representative kindly accepted my answer instantly and replied "I completely understand Sir, thank you for the consideration."

And you didn't figure out that his response meant: "I understand I'm dealing with a customer whose understanding of the used car market is rooted in the irrelevant past. No point in even talking to this one. Next!" Glad you're happy and think you're clever, but you could have had your car sooner if you were smarter. Of course you might get lucky and some key improvement will go into the build by the time you get your car, but deliberately going down that path will leave you never getting a car as you'll keep waiting for the next wonderful thing.

 

[Papafox]

The representative kindly accepted my answer instantly and replied "I completely understand Sir, thank you for the consideration." he then asked if I had any other questions he could answer. I can't tell you how thrilled I was at the response. [/SIZE]

I too am impressed with that response. Thanks for passing it along.

 

[MitchJi]

Whoa, lets not get carried away. What has actually changed, except we have prices? Sig's started to configure almost three month's ago but how many have been delivered? Unless you are referring to the DS (web site) Launch?

After more thinking my assumption is that this means that the are more confident that they will meet their "several hundred per week by the end of the year" goal. So my personal confidence just want from about 80% to about 95%.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Here's the DJ headline.
Tesla Sets $81,200 Price for Base Model X SUV - WSJ

What does anybody think about short term SP movement during the next days?
Will there be enough positive press mentions about official pricing and production configurations allowed to get some positive momentum rolling again?
The last couple of weeks have been a little volatile.
The short term SP movement the morning after last ER up and down during the following days have been a bit quick and a bit irrational imo.
Just thinking about what will come next, and hoping for something positive
Have to get rid of some red calls that expire end of December and end of February
Currently looking for a good time to get rid of the calls.
Any advice?

 

[Scott Ales]

You would have received a 2016 VIN either way.

According to all Tesla representatives, that is incorrect. If you were right, don't you think they would have suggested so in order to sell this car in 2015? Something along these lines, "Sir, your car will have a 2016 VIN even if you take delivery in December, would you like to take advantage of this opportunity?"

 

[Scott Ales]

And you didn't figure out that his response meant: "I understand I'm dealing with a customer whose understanding of the used car market is rooted in the irrelevant past. No point in even talking to this one. Next!" Glad you're happy and think you're clever, but you could have had your car sooner if you were smarter. Of course you might get lucky and some key improvement will go into the build by the time you get your car, but deliberately going down that path will leave you never getting a car as you'll keep waiting for the next wonderful thing.

Quite interesting, I'm 30 years in the business of the irrelevant past and have been championing Tesla for the past 2 years to everyone I know. I'm a six figure bull Tesla investor, own, have bought, driven, (given thousands of rides), sold, or have on ordered over 10 Tesla cars. It has nothing to do with being clever. It's about making a decision that is right for our family. At the very minimum, my involvement with the brand revolves around the actual customer experience. This is what drives my investment strategy and has provided many insights beyond just reading about the company. The customer experience is second to none when making investment decisions.

It's unfortunate that you responded in such a derogatory fashion. Not sure why you would rush to criticize another Tesla fan so aggressively. My decision to take the 2016 is significantly more complex than your assessment. You missed it by a couple of miles at least. But if my perspective actually was as simple as you suggest, it would still be supported by the principle stated a few days ago with respect to the recent 2014 Tesla MS being shopped around in the Florida wholesale market. If you didn't read that, I suggest you dig into my "post" history and get up to speed before rushing to the keyboard. It's a real world view from a seller's perspective and experience over the last few weeks. I am certain you have an expertise far in advance of me within your field. I respect that and can appreciate you. I have traded vehicles for the past 30 years as a vocation and have been fortunate to continually engage new methods and technologies before my contemporaries. It has been my competitive edge. Tesla has been my main field of interest since June of 2013 and remains so today. I'm not the expert on the company, but I am knowledgeable on the industry. And I offer that not boastfully, but with 30 year of wins / losses that directed us consistently on what people like and don't like.

Manufacturers over the last century made it a point to separate and divide owners from one another. Largely from the racing rivalry on Sunday, "Race on Sunday, win on Monday." This created a serious competitive and often hatred spewing position from one company supporter to another. It is so refreshing to hear EM speak about the competition both ICE and EV, as opposed to bashing them publicly. We should all consider supporting one another and treating the competition differently as in the past. No need to create a winner take all mentality or winners vs losers position. Rarely if ever does this result in someone crossing over. Try being a bit more constructive, you'll have a more positive impact if you truly are interested in presenting your message and the advancement of the company.

At least that has been my experience in the past.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

More and more datapoints line up and suggest that Model X production is finally ramping:
- Model X vehicles spotted at end of production in Fremont.
- Delivery timeframe (last week in December) given to a Model X owner.
- First review of a production Model X out some days ago.
- Founders VIN 0034 at Centinela service center.
- Already more than 1500 production series Model X owners invited to configure their Model X.
The fear about only a couple of hand build Model X delivered during 2015 is getting more and more overblown (bears had their fun).
There are still more than 5 weeks left to deliver Founders/Signature Model X till end of 2015.

Now waiting for first delivery dates arranged, first deliveries and more Model X reviews in the media.

 

[Scott Ales]

More and more datapoints line up and suggest that Model X production is finally ramping:
- Model X vehicles spotted at end of production in Fremont.
- Delivery timeframe (last week in December) given to a Model X owner.
- First review of a production Model X out some days ago.
- Founders VIN 0034 at Centinela service center.
- Already more than 1500 production series Model X owners invited to configure their Model X.
The fear about only a couple of hand build Model X delivered during 2015 is getting more and more overblown (bears had their fun).
There are still more than 5 weeks left to deliver Founders/Signature Model X till end of 2015.

Now waiting for first delivery dates arranged, first deliveries and more Model X reviews in the media.

I feel the new owners will flood the world with videos.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I feel the new owners will flood the world with videos.

IMHO SP and especially some of my calls could need a couple of nice videos going viral and spreading round the world

Every single Model X that TM is delivering on top of Model S till Thursday 31st of December will count as a complete successfull sale and will add to the financial report for Q4 2015.
Every vehicle delivered will bring TM closer to cash flow positive, that is so much needed (by the company and by the stock).

 

[AlMc]

IMHO SP and especially some of my calls could need a couple of videos going viral and spreading round the world
Every Model X TM is delivering on top of Model S till Thursday 31st of December will count as a complete successfull sale and will add to the financial report for Q4 2015.
Every vehicle delivered will bring TM closer to cash flow positive, that is so much needed (for the company as for the stock).

I agree that the SP will be more affected (even a nice short squeeze) once the company is cash flow positive and hits delivery targets in the same quarter. The X videos will have a positive impact on SP, but IMO, not one that will trigger a short squeeze/10-20% quick jump in SP.

The next big move, IMO, will not come from the X but from the company meeting/exceeding guidance and being cash flow neutral/positive.

 

[chickensevil]

Here's the DJ headline.

Tesla Sets $81,200 Price for Base Model X SUV - WSJ

What is really annoying about this, is this is NOT the base price... it is 80k. Yes, I realize the 1200 is added fees for delivery and such, but they don't go around pointing out these fees on other cars. It is always listed as the base price MSRP by itself.

 

[Scott Ales]

What is really annoying about this, is this is NOT the base price... it is 80k. Yes, I realize the 1200 is added fees for delivery and such, but they don't go around pointing out these fees on other cars. It is always listed as the base price MSRP by itself.

Agreed, you have to wonder at what point all the misinformation will slow or stop. They could just as easily stated and wouldn't have been wrong with, Base Model X starts at $72,500 with tax incentives. Why present the one company that can lead the US away from all the Middle East crap we have to deal with in a negative light? They should be as embarrassed as people were buying new Hummers back in 2006!

 

[Drax7]

Quite interesting, I'm 30 years in the business of the irrelevant past and have been championing Tesla for the past 2 years to everyone I know. I'm a six figure bull Tesla investor, own, have bought, driven, (given thousands of rides), sold, or have on ordered over 10 Tesla cars. It has nothing to do with being clever. It's about making a decision that is right for our family. At the very minimum, my involvement with the brand revolves around the actual customer experience. This is what drives my investment strategy and has provided many insights beyond just reading about the company. The customer experience is second to none when making investment decisions.

It's unfortunate that you responded in such a derogatory fashion. Not sure why you would rush to criticize another Tesla fan so aggressively. My decision to take the 2016 is significantly more complex than your assessment. You missed it by a couple of miles at least. But if my perspective actually was as simple as you suggest, it would still be supported by the principle stated a few days ago with respect to the recent 2014 Tesla MS being shopped around in the Florida wholesale market. If you didn't read that, I suggest you dig into my "post" history and get up to speed before rushing to the keyboard. It's a real world view from a seller's perspective and experience over the last few weeks. I am certain you have an expertise far in advance of me within your field. I respect that and can appreciate you. I have traded vehicles for the past 30 years as a vocation and have been fortunate to continually engage new methods and technologies before my contemporaries. It has been my competitive edge. Tesla has been my main field of interest since June of 2013 and remains so today. I'm not the expert on the company, but I am knowledgeable on the industry. And I offer that not boastfully, but with 30 year of wins / losses that directed us consistently on what people like and don't like.

Manufacturers over the last century made it a point to separate and divide owners from one another. Largely from the racing rivalry on Sunday, "Race on Sunday, win on Monday." This created a serious competitive and often hatred spewing position from one company supporter to another. It is so refreshing to hear EM speak about the competition both ICE and EV, as opposed to bashing them publicly. We should all consider supporting one another and treating the competition differently as in the past. No need to create a winner take all mentality or winners vs losers position. Rarely if ever does this result in someone crossing over. Try being a bit more constructive, you'll have a more positive impact if you truly are interested in presenting your message and the advancement of the company.

At least that has been my experience in the past.

I agree that the SP will be more affected (even a nice short squeeze) once the company is cash flow positive and hits delivery targets in the same quarter. The X videos will have a positive impact on SP, but IMO, not one that will trigger a short squeeze/10-20% quick jump in SP.

The next big move, IMO, will not come from the X but from the company meeting/exceeding guidance and being cash flow neutral/positive.

We all know the market anticipates events, once its evident the X production is under way , the price of the stock
will follow it up. All the negatives of model X have been discounted, now the positives have a chance.

the ignition cycle count down is under way.

technically if we close above yesterdays high , very positive.

 

[demetri]

Agree. IMHO we will see 300 to 500 sigs delivered this year. The videos will go viral and the X will be THE HOTTEST SUV to own. The stock should drift upward by eoy. Deliveries and cash flow positive in 1q should get us to ath. DS told me yesterday my sig 774 is not in production yet, should see it 1q. Go Tesla!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any ideas about the next couple of days?
Anybody adding/selling share/calls/puts?

 

[schonelucht]

More and more datapoints line up and suggest that Model X production is finally ramping:

Unfortunately there is still one big datapoint that suggests otherwise : neither sig #1 nor sig #2 have any indication of their car being in production let alone delivery being imminent. I also feel the announcement that non-performance model X's will be delivered starting in the second half of 2016 is another delay, although in a stealthy fashion. It's the final nail in the coffin of the supposedly 'fast ramp on the X'.

 

[Scott Ales]

Any ideas about the next couple of days?
Anybody adding/selling share/calls/puts?

I am mildly optimistic for my Mar. 16 calls, regard my Jan. 16 calls as a pure long shot (currently well out of the money), and Jan 17 calls solid. If I could I would swap the Jan 16s for Jan 18s. But their worth so little now I'm playing the ultimate gamble and holding to worthless likely. I don't see the stars lining up for upper $200s SP till 3-6 months.

Still love the product and company!