Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Drax7]

model s was deliberately designed not to be controversial in styling.
I don't think Elon will risk there.

I hear sitting down is the new smoking,
maybe model 3 will have no seats.

 

[Papafox]

I agree that we wish to see a Model 3 that is both aesthetically pleasing and aerodynamically efficient. We know that Model S has a low drag coefficient. A shrunken Model S would have less drag, but word of Elon wanting even more drag reduction is somewhat worrying, because I think we could see some more-extreme measures to cut drag. The car doesn't need to be a knock-out in appearance as Model S was, but it should not be perceived as weird or homely-looking, either. Holding my breath on this one. Tesla has used good judgment in the past, let's hope they do so with Model 3.

 

[AlMc]

I agree that we wish to see a Model 3 that is both aesthetically pleasing and aerodynamically efficient. We know that Model S has a low drag coefficient. A shrunken Model S would have less drag, but word of Elon wanting even more drag reduction is somewhat worrying, because I think we could see some more-extreme measures to cut drag. The car doesn't need to be a knock-out in appearance as Model S was, but it should not be perceived as weird or homely-looking, either. Holding my breath on this one. Tesla has used good judgment in the past, let's hope they do so with Model 3.

Agreed. *Fingers crossed*. EM did indicate that they would not be doing things as intricate as FWDs. A 'mini me' model S would be just fine with me.:wink:

 

[austinEV]

I agree that we wish to see a Model 3 that is both aesthetically pleasing and aerodynamically efficient. We know that Model S has a low drag coefficient. A shrunken Model S would have less drag, but word of Elon wanting even more drag reduction is somewhat worrying, because I think we could see some more-extreme measures to cut drag. The car doesn't need to be a knock-out in appearance as Model S was, but it should not be perceived as weird or homely-looking, either. Holding my breath on this one. Tesla has used good judgment in the past, let's hope they do so with Model 3.

2 words "wheel covers". I wish they would leave well enough. The model S is borderline too round. It gets away with it by being so long and stretched out. If you shrunk a model S down it would be curvier, rounder more VW bug-like. I would like to see a return to some corners, if just suggested in the styling on the front and back, while compromising on drag coefficient. Just make a nice looking, normal car with >0.20 drag. If you have to use a few more cells, do it. If they do a featureless, no-front-grill, round, no rearview mirror, wheel covered, conical rear car with a 0.18 drag coefficient they will have made a weirdmobile that will be mocked. The problem is this is the direction they want to go based on what I have surmised.

 

[JRP3]

Though Elon has specifically said "no weirdmobile". I don't think good aero needs to be weird, especially considering that most of use are more used to aero styling now. Wheel covers could be optional and/or easily removable.

 

[sub]

I have faith in Elon/Tesla to get the styling right to make the majority happy, you can not please everyone obviously. All the traditional auto makers sell lots of cars and I consider 98% of them to be ugly. The reveal may not move the stock price one way or the other, the length and growth rate of the reservation list should however.

 

[Ocelot]

I kinda hoped they would lure whoever has been head of design over at Jaguar the last few years over to help...something that looks like the F-coupe would be perfect (for me).

 

[stealthology]

Anyone know if Tesla will announce the detailed specs in March? For example, miles per charge, power output/hp, that stuff?

 

[austinEV]

Anyone know if Tesla will announce the detailed specs in March? For example, miles per charge, power output/hp, that stuff?

If the past is any guide, they will but be vague. They will say >200 mile real world range, for example.

 

[Papafox]

I kinda hoped they would lure whoever has been head of design over at Jaguar the last few years over to help...something that looks like the F-coupe would be perfect (for me).

Ocelot, you bring up an intersting point that one way to accomplish low drag is by a low, sports car profile like Tesla Model S or Jaguar F Series. I think the challenge with a smaller car is that you still have the same size humans to fit inside, and the same level of streamlining becomes more difficult with a smaller car. Back in the early 1970s, Datsun came out with the 240Z, which was inexpensive, stylish, and aerodynamic. The compromise was that the humans inside had to step down into the car to achieve this level of looks and aerodynamics, and it was not a comfortable car to get into for older people. Additionally, it looked great as a 2 seat coupe, but the appearance went downhill quickly when the 2+2 edition was introduced.

 

[Fallenone]

I think the model 3 announcement next March would be quite a positive catalyst. The $80 price drop in the past few months goes beyond model X being delayed mass production alone, the market's confidence in TSLA's words is also hurt and doubting how many delays will be seen in model 3. Remember, model x was announced in 2012, announced to be delayed to 2015 in 2014, design studio had a delay and also one can argue it's not even opened yet because it's invitation only now, handing 6 founders cars on the last day of Q3 just to make it for "in Q3" is also not very on-time-ish. To repair this damage, of course being able to mass produce model x is the biggest factor, but sticking to the original schedule of the announcement of model 3 would also be a big plus.

I think it will be a medium catalyst. product announcements, particularly ones that are telegraphed in advance as this one is, are weak stock movers. Financial news associated with being cash flow positive, or taking in a large number of cash deposits are stronger IMO. I would say a small catalyst, but this is arguable the most important product unveiling ever, only rivaling the model S.

 

[MitchJi]

I don't think that this company is a threat to Tesla. After about 30 hours of studying their battery pack costs I believe that Tesla is on a path by 2017, at their current prices, which are below disruptive, to increase their GM 30-50%. I don't think that sonnenbatteries will even be close. But I'm going to watch for their announcement:
The Threat to Tesla Motors That You've Never Heard Of -- The Motley Fool

One of the notable news stories about Tesla Energy to come out recently was news that Sonnenbatterie hired away Tesla's head of operations in Germany and another seven leaders of the German team followed as well. This comes ahead of a major announcement from Sonnenbatterie on Nov. 25, expected to be a product that will answer Tesla's entrance into the market.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Interesting video about GM's plans for Battery storage and Electric Vehicles. Is GM partnering/working with Tesla or another "recent entrant" to the automobile industry that manufactures Electric Vehicles, that has somehow gone unnoticed. How do these videos have 0 views?

Daniel R. Frakes - Director of G R D General Motors Public Policy Center - USA - YouTube

Thierry Willemarck - President FIA Region 1 - Belgium - YouTube

Dr. Daniel Kok - Manager for Advanced Electrified Powertrain Systems Ford Motor Company - USA - YouTube

Egil Otter - Manager - International Relations and Policy Director(NAF) – Norway - YouTube

Andrew Cattell - Head of Regulatory Affairs, Driver and Vehicles Standards Agency (DVSA) - YouTube

Francois Guichard Economic Affairs Officer and Engineer (UNECE), Switzerland - YouTube

 

[MikeC]

Production X reservation holders were invited to configure this afternoon: Production Configuration has begun!! Yeah!!! - Page 88

 

[anon]

Production X reservation holders were invited to configure this afternoon: Production Configuration has begun!! Yeah!!! - Page 88

It's confirmed that the X70D starts at $80k. Hopefully should put to rest the headlines and analyst comments about the price being too high.

 

[Drax7]

Starting Ignition cycle , ......... We have liftoff

 

[The Blue Owl]

Starting Ignition cycle , ......... We have liftoff

I'd love to get excited about Tesla's production ramp-up of its third electric vehicle, but I'm too worried about the Tesla killers that VW/Audi/BMW will release three years from now!

 

[Papafox]

I'd love to get excited about Tesla's production ramp-up of its third electric vehicle, but I'm too worried about the Tesla killers that VW/Audi/BMW will release three years from now!

Familial Rhino, funny ... but from way out here in Hawaii I could see your nose grew longer when you said that.

 

[MitchJi]

Starting Ignition cycle , ......... We have liftoff

Whoa, lets not get carried away. What has actually changed, except we have prices? Sig's started to configure almost three month's ago but how many have been delivered? Unless you are referring to the DS (web site) Launch?

Can order 70D for mid to late 2016, P90D early 2016 or 90D for mid 2016 more later...

 

[Papafox]

The real action right now is in a TMC Model X thread where screenshots are being posted and buyers are sorting out the options:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/57871-Production-Configuration-Has-Begun!


Model X is priced as promised at $5,000 above the equivalent battery-sized Model S. Notice that the 7 seat interior is a $4,000 option and the 6 seat interior is a $3,000 option. With pricing such as this I suspect Tesla will be able to achieve a reasonable gross margin with the X, once production ramps up and smooths out.

Edit:
Another interesting point is that P90D is shown as deliveries in early 2016, 90D mid 2016, and 70D is mid to late 2016. The high gross-margin Model X vehicles will be front loaded toward the beginning of the production run, where Tesla can best benefit from them. The delay for 90D and 70D also gives buyers the incentive to go for the performance version or larger battery, if they're in a hurry to get an X. This arrangement is similar to what happened with Model S intro (85kwh cars built mostly built 1st, then 60kwh cars, then finally the handful of 40s (with software-limited 60kwh batteries).