Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[PaulusdB]

Found this article on the street (...).

Tesla (TSLA) Struggles to Grow Sales in Netherlands as Competition Increases - Pg.2 - TheStreet

The real explanation for this temporary PHEV succes is that dec-31-2015 is the last day for registering this type of cars to obtain a substantial discount on the Dutch taxation on private use of a company car. (Commonly referred to as 'bijtelling voor privégebruik'.)

 

[Drax7]

Which is going to be harder to achieve if margins don't improve. However, I suspect margins are under pressure because Tesla is offloading loaners and inventory by offering attractive deals to buyers. This should correct itself next quarter. But then again, Q1 will see a large delivery of lower-margin model X's (due to the signature discount). Maybe cash flow positive is only for Q2. Makes sense not to continue the rally on a mixed bag.

do us a favor........................

 

[Zaxxon]

Another few thousand X reservation holders were just invited to configure. They've invited up through P8000 at least thus far.

 

[AlMc]

do us a favor........................

.....and stick around. Personally, I want to hear all points of view as long as they are delivered with respect to other forum members.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Looks like a huge buy here near the close. Anyone noticed?

 

[larmor]

Another news point, apparently EV rally car is using TM batteries:
Acciona Dakar

 

[Discoducky]

Another news point, apparently EV rally car is using TM batteries:
Acciona Dakar

Looking on the site I don't see it. Where did you read this? Link?

 

[replicant]

Looking on the site I don't see it. Where did you read this? Link?

Website:

Batteries: TESLA 150 KW HIGH PERFORMANCE, FAST CHARGING IN 60 MINUTES

 

[Cobbler]

150KW, shouldn't be confused with 150kWh, which I don't see available in a Tesla before 2018??

 

[Fallenone]

The way I read the text is Tesla saying exactly their GM for Q4 is lower than what Tesla thought it could be (higher than 25% in Q3 as they said in Q3 shareholder letter), which means Q4 GM is below 25%.

This shouldn't come as a surprise as we are seeing all the referral programs and selling showroom/loaners.

2016 Q1 would probably would be closer to 25% than 30% in my opinion. Because production of model X won't be at its optimum and the discount going on in China won't help GM.

I had to do a double take on that too. I think what they are saying is the current margins(~24%) that is already expected by the street is disappointing, because they feel it can be as high as 30%, which they said they are targeting within 18 months. I don't think they are saying their margins for q4 is below expectations. But the way it is worded is open to interpretation.

 

[jesselivenomore]

The way I read the text is Tesla saying exactly their GM for Q4 is lower than what Tesla thought it could be (higher than 25% in Q3 as they said in Q3 shareholder letter), which means Q4 GM is below 25%.

This shouldn't come as a surprise as we are seeing all the referral programs and selling showroom/loaners.

2016 Q1 would probably would be closer to 25% than 30% in my opinion. Because production of model X won't be at its optimum and the discount going on in China won't help GM.

Maybe. But if current margins are so weak, how are they still targeting positive cashflow in Q1?

 

[chickensevil]

Maybe. But if current margins are so weak, how are they still targeting positive cashflow in Q1?

Mostly because R&D will fall through the floor combined with the massive increase in Y/Y deliveries. From Q3 to Q2 alone I expect there will be around a 50% increase. That means 50% more revenues at even a 25% GM would be about 50% more cash flow than before. If R%D dumps off and OpEx only goes up marginally this will cause a nice leveling out on the cash. Pretty easy to hit the cash flows for at least 1 quarter. What will be more interesting is seeing that cash flow stick around for a bit.

 

[Discoducky]

Website:

150KW, shouldn't be confused with 150kWh, which I don't see available in a Tesla before 2018??

Thanks for the link and it says batteries are "Tesla origin". I hope that means that Tesla is assisting, but could mean they just bought some salvage batteries. Hopefully they do well and it reflects well on TSLA

 

[Scott Ales]

Jay Leno Attempts to Take Down a Tesla in his 427 Cobra | CleanTechnica

Exposure like this can't hurt.

 

[Fallenone]

Well I'm not as confident as others on this forum that Tesla will be cashflow positive in 2016 Q1, Q2 is a much safer bet. But since they do have a strong control of their RND and capex spending, tuning down these in Q1 would make Q1 cashflow positive possible. Therefore stock price can be pumped in accordance with ramped up model X, gigafactory grand opening, Tesla Energy mass delivery, M3 reveal, and other possible positive catalysts. At that level, Tesla will have more power to attain current employee (not saying their bleeding too fast, but higher values of stock/option in the package certainly would help from being poached by others) as well as at a better position to go a much larger scale of secondary offering compared to this year's. Again I would consider selling more stocks a massive advantage, because at that time, Tesla has proven they can accomplish Model X, giga is producing results, and M3 is near. Market would gladly fuel Tesla's growth with a big secondary offering with these things in place. It's like your kid nailed SAT but needs money to go to Ivy, is this a bad thing?

Maybe. But if current margins are so weak, how are they still targeting positive cashflow in Q1?

 

[Drax7]

.....and stick around. Personally, I want to hear all points of view as long as they are delivered with respect to other forum members.

The guy goes flat and now starts fantasizing scenarios why the rally is over,
yes do us a favor based on wishful thinking

 

[AlMc]

The guy goes flat and now starts fantasizing scenarios why the rally is over,
yes do us a favor based on wishful thinking

And I do appreciate that this might bring up a debate/discussion. If you wish to put him on your ignore list or dispute his/her claims then that is your choice. I would rather hear all the information the longs/shorts/bear/bulls have at their disposal. It is my belief that to be able to sift through the information before investing is a sound principle. I accept that it may not be the way you choose to invest.

As long as things remain civil I see no need to try to ask/cajole/intimidate anyone to stop participating on an open forum.

 

[schonelucht]

Regardless if I am still welcome here : Eneco, a large publicly owned electricity provider in the Netherlands, announced today they will start selling Tesla powerwall to individuals next year. 2 test installations in January and probably the public at large 'during the first quarter of 2016'. Link with product description (in Dutch). Price is 3675 EUR for the battery only. They are also planning to run a 'virtual power plant' on the total capacity of installed powerwalls by having them charge and discharge according to grid demands. Since they have their own smart power control and always-connected thermostat, called Toon, they are well positioned to do smart things in this regard.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What does anybody think about the Credit Suisse spike (TM hinted to hit Q4 and 2015 guidance in talks with the bank) yesterday, is there more to come or flash in the pan?
Anybody changing strategy?

 

[Drax7]

Regardless if I am still welcome here : Eneco, a large publicly owned electricity provider in the Netherlands, announced today they will start selling Tesla powerwall to individuals next year. 2 test installations in January and probably the public at large 'during the first quarter of 2016'. Link with product description (in Dutch). Price is 3675 EUR for the battery only. They are also planning to run a 'virtual power plant' on the total capacity of installed powerwalls by having them charge and discharge according to grid demands. Since they have their own smart power control and always-connected thermostat, called Toon, they are well positioned to do smart things in this regard.

Of course you are welcome, but don't let your current position cloud your views.
Tesla is on a trajectory to a legitimate cash flow problem , that should be overcome
by production of the model X , and GM are a function of manufacturing quantity,
which does not yet exist.