Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Matias]

Regardless if I am still welcome here : Eneco, a large publicly owned electricity provider in the Netherlands, announced today they will start selling Tesla powerwall to individuals next year. 2 test installations in January and probably the public at large 'during the first quarter of 2016'. Link with product description (in Dutch). Price is 3675 EUR for the battery only. They are also planning to run a 'virtual power plant' on the total capacity of installed powerwalls by having them charge and discharge according to grid demands. Since they have their own smart power control and always-connected thermostat, called Toon, they are well positioned to do smart things in this regard.

Can they remotely control customers powerwall for that?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What does anybody think about the Credit Suisse spike (TM hinted to hit Q4 and 2015 guidance in talks with the bank) yesterday, is there more to come or flash in the pan?
Anybody changing strategy?

Looks like the market already found the answer: flash in the pan
Premarket down about 2%.

 

[phigment]

Looks like the market already found the answer: flash in the pan
Premarket down about 2%.

A little early to tell, but looks like it might just be tracking the macro today...

 

[AlMc]

Tracking lower than the indices....continuing to DCA J18s, if my bids are taken

 

[FredTMC]

This weakness compared to macro is very strange. Tesla just said yesterday that they are going to hit their guidance.

Its interesting how sometimes this kinda news kinda dribbles out but isn't widely appreciated.

 

[Scott Ales]

I am consistently shocked at how oddly the SP moves on no or little news. Including this morning. While I am extraordinarily comfortable being a fundamental long term bull, I cannot get my head around any reasonable strategy for short term investing. Not sure I'll be contributing much moving forward because of this acknowledgement. But I will be watching you all weigh in regularly still.

Best to all!

Like I said yesterday.

 

[Bobbyducati]

got greedy and didnt move out of some calls yesterday, thought id have more time today. This action has been so crazy lately.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations: New PT $400 Club Member

Hi there,
there is a new analyst covering TSLA out of Moscow, Russia:wink:. The guy has a 'buy' rating with a $400 PT.
His price target brought the average 12 month PT back above $300 !
don't have his rationale but have a look at the corps he is covering.

 

[Causalien]

This weakness compared to macro is very strange. Tesla just said yesterday that they are going to hit their guidance.

Its interesting how sometimes this kinda news kinda dribbles out but isn't widely appreciated.

It's a sign thaT people are losing trust in Elon or Tesla's words. I think they are near the inflection point where ehat they say will simply be discarded if they have 1 or 2 more slip ups in their promised deadline. The market simply do nit believe they'll come true.

Heck, even I am waiting for Bonnie's delivery to decided whether or not theQ4 promise is real or not. 3 weeks left and 1 of them is the Christmas week. It's not looking good.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's a sign thaT people are losing trust in Elon or Tesla's words. I think they are near the inflection point where ehat they say will simply be discarded if they have 1 or 2 more slip ups in their promised deadline. The market simply do nit believe they'll come true.

Heck, even I am waiting for Bonnie's delivery to decided whether or not theQ4 promise is real or not. 3 weeks left and 1 of them is the Christmas week. It's not looking good.

Can we say buying opportunity? Seriously, if people don't trust Elon or Tesla then they haven't been paying attention. Tesla will reach their end game or die trying...that can be stated as a fact based on what we know about Elon and Tesla to date. History won't remember or care that it took a few extra months (or years) for such and such aspect (Model X deliveries, AP release, fill in whatever suits your fancy) to come to fruition. The plan has been telegraphed from day one, and the bricks are being laid as we sit here and type on this forum. Time is all that's needed...oh, and a bit of money.

 

[schonelucht]

This weakness compared to macro is very strange. Tesla just said yesterday that they are going to hit their guidance.

But they also admitted having trouble with margins. I think the market already anticipated on Tesla making guidance with the run up from 210 to 230 recently. The next concern is cash flow. Especially the cash flow positive goal for Q1 slipped a little bit farther away.

 

[FredTMC]

It's a sign thaT people are losing trust in Elon or Tesla's words. I think they are near the inflection point where ehat they say will simply be discarded if they have 1 or 2 more slip ups in their promised deadline. The market simply do nit believe they'll come true.

Heck, even I am waiting for Bonnie's delivery to decided whether or not theQ4 promise is real or not. 3 weeks left and 1 of them is the Christmas week. It's not looking good.

no argument there with me. I originally guesstimated 500 MX deliveries for Q4. Last week or two of December is certainly the likely outcome due to transit times.

Love to see tesla "under promise and over deliver" in 2016. It's my New Years resolution wish for Elon.

 

[dalalsid]

But they also admitted having trouble with margins. I think the market already anticipated on Tesla making guidance with the run up from 210 to 230 recently. The next concern is cash flow. Especially the cash flow positive goal for Q1 slipped a little bit farther away.

My theory is that production X's are being asked to confirm to boost margins. But I don't understand accounting enough to know whether that is true/possible or not. Making all those deposits non-refundable by confirming now and delivering in Q1 could(?) help Q4 margins but then hit Q1 margins later.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Honestly I have been waiting too long for some positive kind of rumor or signal that X is finally ramping.
Some pics leaking, an other Eds, or anything.
With some days needed in advance for any X delivery and the holiday at the end of the year, here is an uber bull seeing dark black.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Credit Suisse' Industrials Conference

this is an extract from CS' report.

{NSN NYZD166K50XU<Go>}

 Tesla: In our view, the most bullish outlook statements werefrom Tesla. Company is on-track for Model X production of
"several hundred per week" sometime in December, notes
that X launch has not impacted Model S production in the
quarter, and expects Model S to reach #1 mkt share in Europe
in its price segment for first time in Q4 (all statements
supportive for Tesla hitting Q4 delivery guidance). Reiterated
outlook for "positive free cash flow (including lease financing
inflows)", which is supportive of our above-consensus 2016
EPS forecast. Mgmt believes current gross margins are
disappointing and far below potential, implying upside
potential in 2016…noting new Body Shop / Paint Shop would
lead to 60%+ cost reductions in those areas. Gigafactory
launch is on-track and now producing Tesla Energy products.
Finally, the company expects its Tesla Energy products to
reach 15% gross margin by Q2 / Q3 and eventually reach
mid-20% (with significantly lower operating expenses than the
vehicle business).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Honestly I have been waiting too long for some positive kind of rumor or signal that X is finally ramping.
Some pics leaking, an other Eds, or anything.
With some days needed in advance for any X delivery and the holiday at the end of the year, here is an uber bull seeing dark black.

And what's really not helping at all is that there is no word out from Tesla about what's going on (X ramp, powerpack/powerwall ramp, S delivery target, factory upgrade, international expansion plans, new projects).
Just give your retail investors a tiny little bit of information so that they are able to decide if they want to invest in this company any longer.
Giving your investors NO information IMO translates to investors will pull their money out of Tesla.

- - - Updated - - -

this is an extract from CS' report.

Derek, thank's for posting CS report info.

 

[farzyness]

And what's really not helping at all is that there is no word out from Tesla about what's going on (X ramp, powerpack/powerwall ramp, S delivery target, factory upgrade, international expansion plans, new projects).
Just give your retail investors a tiny little bit of information so that they are able to decide if they want to invest in this company any longer.
Giving your investors NO information IMO translates to investors will pull their money out of Tesla.

I don't agree with this. Let them do the work. They already gave guidance. They will report their deliveries in the first week of January.

 

[AlMc]

It's a sign thaT people are losing trust in Elon or Tesla's words. I think they are near the inflection point where ehat they say will simply be discarded if they have 1 or 2 more slip ups in their promised deadline. The market simply do nit believe they'll come true.

Heck, even I am waiting for Bonnie's delivery to decided whether or not theQ4 promise is real or not. 3 weeks left and 1 of them is the Christmas week. It's not looking good.

no argument there with me. I originally guesstimated 500 MX deliveries for Q4. Last week or two of December is certainly the likely outcome due to transit times.

Love to see tesla "under promise and over deliver" in 2016. It's my New Years resolution wish for Elon.

Posts like this from you two give me some trepidation. This is either a great buying opportunity or time to sit on cash......analysis/paralysis setting in for me

If Flux comes on and says the macros are bad and DaveT analysis for TSLA Q4 2015/ Q1 2016 is questionable

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I don't agree with this. Let them do the work. They already gave guidance. They will report their deliveries in the first week of January.

I agree to let the people at TM do their work. They need to concentrate on their job.

I just think about what might happen during the next three to four weeks till TM is reporting Q4 deliveries early January next year. It is just so sad and not really encouraging to not hear anything from TM. Maybe some strange and made up rumors will take the SP to $100? Neither TM, EM, most people here, nor me want's that?! The longer I think about it it looks like (but for sure, I doubt it) this has to be the TM EM strategy Is it possible that they are totally not aware of this?
And don't get me wrong, I don't want them to release info to push the SP, but there is something in between that an zero information.

In a company communications strategy it's important to take an active part (like they used to with at least some tweets or blog posts from time to time), you have to be the player, otherwise some one else will do this job for you and he might have his own strategy, that might be different to yours
This is just so sad to get news from a third party CS report (that might be true, might be not), and no official word from TM. Always behind some other participant in the market.
Either TM wants retail investors, in this case they should care a little bit about them, or they don't want retail investors, in this case there is no issues with this 'no communication strategy'.

This is a very sad story as I put my real money to support Tesla because I think it's a great company.
But I have the feeling this communications strategy used to be a bit better some months/years ago.
And I am just not in a position to put all my money on a risk maximizing strategy, like WTF IDK Musk the super hero on earth, no problem to lose all my money for Musk

(BTW sorry for this OT post, but I felt like I had to say this. Maybe some else feels the same. I miss the social thread in these ocasions.)

 

[The Blue Owl]

I just think about what might happen during the next three to four weeks till TM is reporting Q4 deliveries early January next year. It is just so sad and not really encouraging to not hear anything from TM. Maybe some strange and made up rumors will take the SP to $100? Neither TM, EM, most people here, nor me want's that?! The longer I think about it looks like this has to be the TM EM strategy Is it possible that they are totally not aware of this?
And don't get me wrong, I do not want them to release info to push the SP, but there is something in between that an zero information.

"People try to really read the tea leaves, even though there's really not enough information to make conclusions. And then they'll get exuberant, and then depressed. I mean, as Warren Buffet said, dealing with the market is like dealing with a manic depressive." --Elon Musk