Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[winfield100]

The shorts are fundamentally mistaken....incoming cash flows due to the insane Q4 push on Model S deliveries.

as a single data point, I have been going by the Gude Drive (rockville, md, usa )Tesla service center for the past 2 week about every other day and doing a count of Teslas I see. there are between 20- 40 every time, most are different (lots shrink wrapped) some being serviced. someone is buying and having them delivered.
daily see Teslas driving every day, (distinctive headlights) i agree with Julian about lots being delivered

 

[replicant]

Google to Make Driverless Cars an Alphabet Company in 2016

Google Inc. plans to make its self-driving cars unit, which will offer rides for hire, a stand-alone business under the Alphabet Inc. corporate umbrella next year, a person briefed on the company’s strategy said.

Google’s autonomous vehicles have logged more than 1 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) on public roads, mostly around San Francisco and Austin, Texas, making these cities logical places for launching a service, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. The fleets *-- which would include a range of large and small vehicles -- could be deployed first in confined areas like college campuses, military bases or corporate office parks, the person said.

 

[MitchJi]

- TSLA is a momentum stock, people beat it up and down, it has exaggerated moves (that could be stressful, but you can make money on that.

That will continue as long as they have high capex, relative to the size of the company.

- Just as there have been some issues during early ramp of any new vehicle (not only at Tesla Motors), there will be some issues during early production of Model X in 2016. People will blow these issues out of proportion. Userer here will show that this is exaggerated. SP will dive. Some weeks/months later SP will recover as the issue was blown out of proportion.
That is why I will reduce my positions a bit to de risk during next summer (e.g. getting rid of some calls, adding some protective puts).

I think that sooner or later they will nail a launch. I think the key is to be prepared if they do, but also prepared if they don't. Looking back over the last six months it was pretty clear that they were likely to have problems. It looks like most of the problems were caused by a combination of the complexity of the MX and the fact that the MS and the MX share part of the same production line which is preventing the MX ramp without impacting MS production. It's possible that neither of those issues will effect the M3 ramp.

 

[jesselivenomore]

With indices currently on lows, this price spike is almost certainly a spillover from short covering over at SCTY.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Zoomed past the $226 resistance on volume, let's see if momentum keeps going.

 

[phigment]

Zoomed past the $226 resistance on volume, let's see if momentum keeps going.

What's next? 232?

 

[austinEV]

With indices currently on lows, this price spike is almost certainly a spillover from short covering over at SCTY.

Wow, nice for SCTY holders.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What's next? 232?

Yes, and after that $238.

 

[Krugerrand]

For example. Following the Model 3 unveil, in my opinion it is highly likely that Tesla will receive a tsunami of reservations indicative of near term demand significantly in excess of 500,000 vehicles per year by 2020 and more indicative of demand for 500,000 Model 3 vehicles like right now. Assuming this occurs, this will have a number of cascading effects. For one, removing significant numbers of customers from the traditional auto market will put the hurt traditional auto makers in a way that traditional automotive management culture is simply not equipped to comprehend.

This is a very interesting point. IF the Model 3 reservations come in (like some of us are thinking they will) this does mean that a large group of people are now out of the market for a new ICE within a relatively short time frame. These people will be making their current used vehicles 'last' until the Model 3, or they'll perhaps extend their lease a bit, or they might buy a 'used' car (privately I hope :smile to tide them over, but they won't be buying a 'new' car while they wait for the Model 3. So yeah, IF those reservations come in in the kind of quantity some of us are thinking, THAT could really put a couple of OEMs in a pickle.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Crisis in confidence in those who are short Elon Musk today. Hello Chanos?

 

[stealthology]

Apart from the shorts who have really no idea what they're doing, what are the seemingly smart shorts banking on? No X production ramp in the immediate future? Q4 delivery #'s not being reached? I'm not concerned about either one of those.

 

[gene]

Wow, nice for SCTY holders.

I suppose, like me, some SCTY sellers who are cashin' it in big time this morning, are taking some of that money and buying TSLA.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I suppose, like me, some SCTY sellers who are cashin' it in big time this morning, are taking some of that money and buying TSLA.

That is the minority. Mostly it is short sellers who are in both TSLA and SCTY rethinking their bets against Elon Musk after getting ripped a new one.

 

[austinEV]

Apart from the shorts who have really no idea what they're doing, what are the seemingly smart shorts banking on? No X production ramp in the immediate future? Q4 delivery #'s not being reached? I'm not concerned about either one of those.

• Model X is stupid, no one will buy them
• An ICE OEM will turn on EV's any day now and steal all TM's business
• Another battery maker will start making batteries in volume and that will cause TM to go out of business.
• A new battery tech will be invtented any day now that will strand the GF investment and enable any fool to make model S's.
• Apple/google/faraday/x will make an EV and take all of TM's business.
• TM loses money on every car they sell.
• Model 3 will really be 60k so TM will go out of business.
• The total market for 100k+ EV's is approaching saturation so TM's sales will flatten and then decrease, TSLA will plummet.
• The GF is dumb for a variety of reasons.
• TM will need to do lots of capital raises to build up capacity.
• Model S's have terrible reliability and someday the sheeple will wake up.
• Something something Fukata motors, taiwan, lies, lies.

I think that covers it.

To be clear, these are not good arguments. But it is what the Bears are banking on. I have a whole thread debunking many of these.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I think that covers it.

He said the "smart shorts".

If you are a smart short in TSLA, you are betting on an overall economic downturn, or that in a rising interest rate environment there will be a revaluation of high beta stocks.

Both of which may come to fruition, but are likely 20+ months out, and at much higher share prices.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

That is the minority. Mostly it is short sellers who are in both TSLA and SCTY rethinking their bets against Elon Musk after getting ripped a new one.

Correct. Just like bulls might consider TSLA and SCTY as a combined investment, bears might want to short both companies without deeper knowledge in the one or the other. Just imagine you are working at a traditional car company or in the oil or coal industry.
The result is even more fuel for the TSLA squeeze:
- Shorts that are under water with their bearish SCTY position might bail their short position at TSLA sooner.

 

[Drax7]

• Model X is stupid, no one will buy them
• An ICE OEM will turn on EV's any day now and steal all TM's business
• Another battery maker will start making batteries in volume and that will cause TM to go out of business.
• A new battery tech will be invtented any day now that will strand the GF investment and enable any fool to make model S's.
• Apple/google/faraday/x will make an EV and take all of TM's business.
• TM loses money on every car they sell.
• Model 3 will really be 60k so TM will go out of business.
• The total market for 100k+ EV's is approaching saturation so TM's sales will flatten and then decrease, TSLA will plummet.
• The GF is dumb for a variety of reasons.
• TM will need to do lots of capital raises to build up capacity.
• Model S's have terrible reliability and someday the sheeple will wake up.
• Something something Fukata motors, taiwan, lies, lies.

I think that covers it.


To be clear, these are not good arguments. But it is what the Bears are banking on. I have a whole thread debunking many of these.

Nice job.

Time to start discounting what is great about Model x.

Fakuta, ha ha, sounds like fakaktus .

 

[Julian Cox]

This is a very interesting point. IF the Model 3 reservations come in (like some of us are thinking they will) this does mean that a large group of people are now out of the market for a new ICE within a relatively short time frame. These people will be making their current used vehicles 'last' until the Model 3, or they'll perhaps extend their lease a bit, or they might buy a 'used' car (privately I hope :smile to tide them over, but they won't be buying a 'new' car while they wait for the Model 3. So yeah, IF those reservations come in in the kind of quantity some of us are thinking, THAT could really put a couple of OEMs in a pickle.

It is interesting isn't it. There was a 7% vehicle demand shortfall between 2008 vs 2007. That is all it took to kill GM and Chrysler almost kill Ford and cause Toyota to abandon NUMMI.

2014 total US sales 16.52 million units. 7% of that is 1,156,400 units (1.16 million). That is all it would take (just Model 3 reservations without any production capacity to back it up) for a total re-run of the 2008 auto recession and there will be no repeat of government bailouts. That ship has sailed.

Average new car selling price in the USA is approximately $35K - and that is for those budgeting for gasoline and routine ICE vehicle maintenance on top of the purchase price. There is a very good chance in my opinion that the base Model 3 will perform in many respects consistently if not favorably with a $40-$50K ICE vehicle in terms of acceleration, handling, safety and cabin sophistication bringing those premium features within reach of the mid market for the first time ever. Of course AWD performance options will be available on up from there extending the appeal above the mid market too. I think there is a very high chance of the majority and not a minority of Prius owners defecting to the Model 3 (at least those that have not already defected to Model S and X on account of affordability) and Model 3 will also cut straight across everything from Lincoln to Lexus and BMW to Porsche as well.

I don't think it is impossible for Tesla to amass that 7% market share in Model 3 reservations during the course of 2016 and the ramifications if it does will be spectacular. The reason for that is that big auto is typically doing production planning for projected demand at least 180 days in advance and their 2016 projections will be bullish coming out of 2015 while considering Tesla demand to be irrelevant until 2018 at the earliest and probably somewhat irrelevant even at that juncture. To have Tesla evacuate dealer lots by redirecting significant percentages of 2016 consumer demand from dealer lots to a Tesla web server will totally and completely blind-side that business process. Should Tesla absorb anything like 7% of 2016 demand as Model 3 reservation holders there will be abject chaos in the auto industry accompanied by a TSLA bonanza of both capital inflow as well as opportunity to pick up stranded production capacity at fire sale prices. This is not a guarantee but the chance of that happening IMO is deep into double digit percentages and cannot be dismissed from analysis. Put it this way, I would not want to own F, GM or TM going into 2016 and if I did TSLA would be the appropriate hedge.

BTW it is a delight to come out swinging for TSLA and to watch the market go vertical by way of coincidence.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Question:
Does this candle look like a trend reversal on the daily?
(Let's wait and hope for a nice today's close)

 

[jesselivenomore]

Correct. Just like bulls might consider TSLA and SCTY as a combined investment, bears might want to short both companies without deeper knowledge in the one or the other. Just imagine you are working at a traditional car company or in the oil or coal industry.
The result is even more fuel for the TSLA squeeze:
- Shorts that are under water with their bearish SCTY position might bail their short position at TSLA sooner.

Yes, shorts have been emboldened recently by SCTY's share price collapse. The thinking was, "If Musk can be wrong about one company, maybe he can be wrong about TSLA too."

That thinking, at least for today, has turned into, "If I can blow half of my account shorting SCTY, maybe I should save the other half and cover TSLA before I completely go broke."

At least that is how I imagine the smart and self aware shorts are thinking. Of course there are the delusional ones who will go down with the proverbial ship. Which is fine, we will need someone to hit the ask on the first 300.00 print after all.