Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

I think TM will communicate 100 000th vehicle delivered soon, either with the Q4 delivery number early in January or a bit later during the Q4 ER.

 

[Julian Cox]

I agree. Just think of the myriad of bullet points Tesla has brought in house when others dropped the ball.

Like MX pedestal seats. Who ever had that contract made a huge mistake in not meeting the schedule and production needs.

And the company has shown it is very effective at raising capitol to bring anything under roof which furthers the mission.

Yup. The simplest way for big auto to seek to slow Tesla down is to use their relative importance as volume customers to prevail upon the common supply chain to raise Tesla's prices, miss Tesla's deadlines or flat out refuse to supply. There are no gentlemen in the auto industry. Tesla's response to those suppliers: Cooperate or we will in-source it and probably hire away your best people too and if we're the future, you're history. Having done that a few times I guess the general level of supplier cooperation generally improves over time.

I have to say that Tesla's preemptive end run around the lithium cartel is the kind of thing that makes me smile. Elon may be mild mannered on YouTube but as a strategist this guy and his team is strictly lethal.

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I think TM will communicate 100 000th vehicle delivered soon, either with the Q4 delivery number early in January or a bit later during the Q4 ER.

Interesting. Didn't they already pass 90,000 a while back with 3,000 vehicles on hand (at time of seatbelt inspection)? Tesla has the occasional habit of throwing curve balls in the form of interim guidance. As I wrote earlier I would expect to see one in December for reasons stated. This sounds like another good reason/excuse.

 

[MitchJi]

The mechanism is Elon Musk.

How could he possibly by himself have that huge an impact? The only way that I can think of is to make something like 20-50 GF's for energy storage. If you seriously believe he's going to do that its a great investment opportunity!

 

[ludicrousspeed]

How could he possibly by himself have that huge an impact? The only way that I can think of is to make something like 20-50 GF's for energy storage. If you seriously believe he's going to do that its a great investment opportunity!

You do not need 20-50 GFs to make an impact. I'm not saying he is single-handedly changing the energy landscape, but if you don't think Musk himself already has and will continue to make an impact, you need to do familiarize yourself with the changes and accomplishments he has led over his career.

 

[MitchJi]

You do not need 20-50 GFs to make an impact. I'm not saying he is single-handedly changing the energy landscape, but if you don't think Musk himself already has and will continue to make an impact, you need to do familiarize yourself with the changes and accomplishments he has led over his career.

Quote Originally Posted by MitchJi View Post
And how much difference do you think this "Landmark Deal" will actually make?


Great goal, but no mechanism to achieve it.

The mechanism is Elon Musk.

It's all about context.
That implies single handed to me, and I don't think his post was literally what he believes. In any case my reply was semi joking.

 

[FluxCap]

How could he possibly by himself have that huge an impact? The only way that I can think of is to make something like 20-50 GF's for energy storage. If you seriously believe he's going to do that its a great investment opportunity!

There is simply no one else trying in a credible way. I spent way too many years believing nonprofits and advocacy and good-hearted politicians could make a meaningful pre-emptive change in the planet's warming trend given the overwhelmingly definitive climate science, but then I realized it was folly. Elon Musk is the only credible pre-disaster mechanism available today. And by pre-disaster I mean making a serious dent before glacier melts put Manhattan underwater and people are forced to change, at which point it's probably too late.

And by Elon Musk, I mean by association to include all the fantastic people working with him to accomplish the common goal. Which includes we early adopters.

It's the master plan. (Incidentally, it's hilarious and sad how "journalists" are saying they "discovered" the master plan blog post that "might hint at Tesla's goals.")

 

[hobbes]

I think TM will communicate 100 000th vehicle delivered soon, either with the Q4 delivery number early in January or a bit later during the Q4 ER.

Tesla is delivering Model Ses with VINs in the 118,000 range at the moment. I know VINs are not necessarily equal to number of cars, but I doubt they skipped 18,000 of them. Maybe they´ll mention it in the Q4 shareholder letter that they passed the 100,000 in September (my guess).

 

[Scott Ales]

Tesla is delivering Model Ses with VINs in the 118,000 range at the moment. I know VINs are not necessarily equal to number of cars, but I doubt they skipped 18,000 of them. Maybe they´ll mention it in the Q4 shareholder letter that they passed the 100,000 in September (my guess).

Mine is to be delivered here in Florida the last week of this month. 114298

 

[hobbes]

Mine is to be delivered here in Florida the last week of this month. 114298

O.k., should have said the highest VINs having been delivered are in the 18,000 range. Batching, transport...
Model S Order Delivery - Google Sheets

 

[Hogfighter]

Mine is to be delivered here in Florida the last week of this month. 114298

Way to go!

 

[JRP3]

Well, the Lithium supply issue is real. Tesla's announced deals are indeed with junior mining companies that have yet to produce anything. That Tesla was on the verge of buying a mining company is telling - it would mean they haven't figured out how to get Lithium cheaply any other way. One thing I don't know is how much of the cell cost Lithium represents. It may not matter much if Tesla has to buy Lithium at market prices.

Lithium is about 2% of the pack and lithium carbonate is around $6/kg.

 

[jhm]

Lithium is about 2% of the pack and lithium carbonate is around $6/kg.

So at 250 Wh/kg, the lithium cost is about $0.48/kWh. So on the path to a total cost of $100/kWh, lithium is not likely to be a barrier.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Model S pack weight is 1600 lbs, or 725 kg. Assuming the 2% figure is off of pack weight, that's 14.5 kg of lithium per pack. At $6 per kg, there's only $87 of lithium per pack. Mind you, the Model S pack is bigger than the Model 3 pack will be, so this is an upper bound estimate.

All this talk about securing lithium supply at certain costs is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot.

 

[dakh]

A bit off topic, but next SpaceX launch is this weekend:

Dec. 19/20Falcon 9 • Orbcomm OG2
Launch window: 0125-0425 GMT on 20th (8:25-11:25 p.m. EST on 19th)
Launch site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

 

[Johan]

Model S pack weight is 1600 lbs, or 725 kg. Assuming the 2% figure is off of pack weight, that's 14.5 kg of lithium per pack. At $6 per kg, there's only $87 of lithium per pack. Mind you, the Model S pack is bigger than the Model 3 pack will be, so this is an upper bound estimate.

All this talk about securing lithium supply at certain costs is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot.

Agree. But appearances can be important and it's very common for people to believe we're driving around with a couple of hundred kg's of Lithium in the battery.

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How could he possibly by himself have that huge an impact? The only way that I can think of is to make something like 20-50 GF's for energy storage. If you seriously believe he's going to do that it's a great investment opportunity!

Yes it is! That's kind of what we are discussing here

 

[stoebs]

A bit off topic, but next SpaceX launch is this weekend:

Dec. 19/20Falcon 9 • Orbcomm OG2
Launch window: 0125-0425 GMT on 20th (8:25-11:25 p.m. EST on 19th)
Launch site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

Does anyone know if they're planning to land the Falcon rocket on this launch?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I feel like sometimes it is important to think about the things no one is talking about.

Right now everybody is excited about:
- TM being able to meet their Q4 and 2015 year guidance with Model S deliveries.
- Production ramp of Model X being able to pump out vehicles in a reassuring quantity for the investment crowd (and the owners ).
- As part of COP21 discussion SolarCity and stationary storage got a lot of press mentions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture I get the impression that people right now totally forgot about Tesla Motors stage three in their Masterplan:
- Stage three got ignition some weeks ago: Currently Tesla Motors is combining their best work forces in development for Model 3!
- The Model 3 unveil is only three months away, I bet we will see the first rumour about some Model 3 design items leaked/teased and reported soon.

Folks, let's keep ahead of the crowd.
And please let's not discuss issues like Model X key fob shape here.
Obviously an issue with the supplier, so nothing to see there.

Personally I am surprised by the TSLA SP moves during the last months/years.
- The drop after the f***s was perfect
- The SP beaten down because of port strike issues, D issues and others was perfect
- The run up this spring was perfect
- The double 'deutsche bank' top this summer was perfect
- The high volatility phase since then was perfect

What I do see now in addition to some invisible momentum already building towards Model 3 unveil in three months (no more lower lows recently):
- Company still growing (manufacturing, sales, service, SuperCharging infrastructure and energy department)
- Revenue still rising.
- Capex slowing down due to a lot of investments already done for a bigger production capacity (like 500000/year cap for paint shop, thank's to Dürr and Eisenmann).
- Capex slowing down due to engineers working during early development stage not that expensive.
- Possibility of Model S deliveries meeting guidance only adding fuel.
- Possibility of Model X ramp getting to a rate of dozens per week and a bit later to hundreds per month, reassuring quantity for investment crowd, only adding fuel.
- Shorts only adding fuel.
- Low trading volume only adding fuel.
- SP in charted teritory, possible 20% SP increase to ATH only adding fuel.

So big question: Am I bullish again? Yes.
Only waiting for the rate hike meeting later today to decide on any additional moves.

And I would like to mention some food for thought, I do see a post Model 3 lull again middle of next year because:
- No stock is trading only up or only down, just take a look back in the TSLA time machine
- TSLA is a momentum stock, people beat it up and down, it has exaggerated moves (that could be stressful, but you can make money on that)
- Just as there have been some issues during early ramp of any new vehicle (not only at Tesla Motors), there will be some issues during early production of Model X in 2016. People will blow these issues out of proportion. Userer here will show that this is exaggerated. SP will dive. Some weeks/months later SP will recover as the issue was blown out of proportion.
That is why I will reduce my positions a bit to de risk during next summer (e.g. getting rid of some calls, adding some protective puts).

And for sure factory running at full steam and churning out Model S, X, 3 and Y will generate a lot of revenue and this will be a positive catalyst again.

BTW sorry for that monster post, just wanted to share my point of view.
Would love to have a nice and friendly discussion about the ideas
And again, sorry for my bad English, unfortunately I am not a native English speaker;(

 

[Julian Cox]

Does anyone know if they're planning to land the Falcon rocket on this launch?

Yes, and apparently they are seeking clearance to land it here: SpaceX on Twitter:

One other insanely cool thing is that the upgraded engines and the redistribution of mass to the upper stage means that a single center engine on the fist stage core should have enough thrust to weight ratio to enable fully controlled hovering transitions and a gentle touch-down exactly like the grasshopper. Assuming this one gets to orbit without breaking as a result of a 'learning experience' with cryogenic densified fuel and uprated engines the chance of it landing in one piece is massively improved over the previous nail it or else attempts at sea that came as a result of a slightly negative thrust to weight ratio with the previous iteration of the Merlin 1D. It also looks as though they have added some extra cold gas thrusters between the grid fins for additional yaw control at low speed and I presume after landing too until a support rig or boot welders show up in the case of high winds (and/or an unstable platform at sea).

Sorry for geeking out but that is just the way it is. To bring it back on topic, I suspect a successful SpaceX mission will be crowned by interim guidance from Tesla confirming they have surpassed at least the lower end of their delivery guidance. I don't think they will drag out that news until January and this could be the trigger to release it.

 

[Julian Cox]

I feel like sometimes it is important to think about the things no one is talking about.
Would love to have a nice and friendly discussion about the ideas

(

The shorts are fundamentally mistaken about the forward looking fundamentals. All else pales in comparison. There will be another significant dose of spending on Model X in Q4 but there will also be record revenues and incoming cash flows due to the insane Q4 push on Model S deliveries. They might even get to cash flow positive in Q4 which will totally marmalize the shorts.

The stock is $6 billion oversold in obvious error. That is basically a market cap windfall that the shorts are obligated to purchase with interest between now and April at the latest.

This is no time to be shy about going long TSLA.

I am not certain what effect a rate hike will have. My feeling is any such hike will be extremely minor and its effects on TESLA even more minor than that. Put it this way, it won't prompt the financial system to pull out of equities and jump into savings overnight and particularly not for high risk high return growth stock investors for whom less than 10% guaranteed return per year is of no importance. The only effect that increased interest rates will have over the long haul is to raise the level of interest Tesla would probably need to offer to be market-competitive when floating convertible bond issues in future. This is still a minor effect when compared with factors relating directly to the business.

For example. Following the Model 3 unveil, in my opinion it is highly likely that Tesla will receive a tsunami of reservations indicative of near term demand significantly in excess of 500,000 vehicles per year by 2020 and more indicative of demand for 500,000 Model 3 vehicles like right now. Assuming this occurs, this will have a number of cascading effects. For one, removing significant numbers of customers from the traditional auto market will put the hurt traditional auto makers in a way that traditional automotive management culture is simply not equipped to comprehend. It will promote TSLA stock price significantly, it will unlock significant Panasonic Gigafactory investment early and it will most likely give opportunity to a giant capital raise with minimal dilution as well as attract global investments in additional Tesla factories - and depending just how much defection from dealer lots occurs, if it is truly significant (for example the majority of the world's Prius customers simply defect from Toyota overnight - which is well within the realm of the possible), Tesla may well be able to purchase additional abandoned facilities around the globe in the same way that it bought NUMMI and/or name its terms when it comes to dealing with the likes of Toyota as an OEM licensee.

 

[stealthology]

- Possibility of Model X ramp getting to a rate of dozens per week and a bit later to hundreds per month, reassuring quantity for investment crowd, only adding fuel.

On the Q3 call, and re-iterated last week, Tesla feels very confident of producing several hundred X's per week by the end of the year.