I think this dip is the 'getting ready for X configuration announcement' dip before we crush $300
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Two knives are enough for me. September and August. I'm done. Unless we go lower. Ugh. Decisions.
This is reminiscent of September 15, 2014 (What we were saying then). Morgan Stanley put out that strange note that downgraded TSLA, and by then end of the day we fell from ~274 to ~253, a drop of $20 and more than 7%. I hope this time isn't the same thing, and instead we consolidate a bit to form a cup and handle before Model X release.
sub
Active Member
Wasn't expecting this, ouch. Seems like when there is an "upgrade" on the stock lately that there is little to no reaction. This drop seems unwarranted.
virtuesoft
Member
Often, when a stock has been moving up with so few pullbacks, any news can cause a big drop like this. This is because there are a ton of bulls profit taking, and a ton of others waiting for cheaper prices to step aboard. This is what has happened today. I wouldn't worry about it. The Model X will be revealed shortly and the stock will reach new all time highs. This 'downgrade', which includes an increase in their price target, now approx $20 higher than the current price is nothing. Stay long and strong.
You don't lose until you sell. If you aren't selling, just take the punches. Pretty sure we've all been there if not worse.
mejojo
Active Member
Account down $60K so far, I planted my flag with 20 * 7/17@250 for 15.25.
Yoyo coming back up.
Yoyo coming back up.
There is no new Morgan Stanley analysis released at this time(that article is in error), there is only Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank raising his price target by 15% and calling it a "downgrade."
What is happening today is spontaneous market panic and selloff in NASDAQ, particularly momentum names and those linked to Chinese business. It appears we have bottomed for the moment though.
China is flailing and looking impotent to contain a stock market crash, and this spooks the world.
chickensevil
Active Member
Except the RAISED their Price Target in this instance... which makes no sense at all. And it wasn't Morgan Stanley that put out the note (AJ had a lot of pull on the swing of the stock back then... less so today...)
That group that freshly shorted TSLA I hope they are smart and are covering on the way down cause I really don't feel like this is going to stick for long as there is no news and certainly nothing that would be construed as negative in this instance. And If and I recall correctly I was one of the ones suggesting that we were about ready to fall off the cliff at the last peak (which I seem to recall people getting a little upset with me over that one, lol) and I really just don't see that happening this time around. The company is in a far better place today than Sept of last year and we are on the cusp of continued great things given that we still have:
1: X design studio - Late July (Tesla time, I am not expecting anything before August... but you know...)
2: X reveal/initial sales - Sept (which will mean we get the reviews on the car later in the year, another Car of the Year award, Motor Trend?)
3: Massive positive cash flows - Q4
4: New Body in White / Body Center line up and running - Q4 (which should finally let us push full steam ahead into 2k a week run rates)
5: Model 3 prototype reveal - Q1
6: First cells made in Gigafactory - Q1 (targeted at March)
7: Record sales in Q3, followed by Q4, and followed possibly again by Q1/16 (the Fish just keep jumping in the boat)
8: Initial Stationary Storage production pushed out somewhere in there and we find out what their margins are currently and hopefully reaffirm targeting 20% margins in the near future
This is setting up for 1 positive after another between now and Q1 of next year. I am not saying that the stock should keep going through the roof in that time period, but seeing a repeat of history and us legitimately falling back below 250? Not happening... The closest thing to a negative I see happening is that we miss 55k deliveries for this year (which we won't know until much later... that is not something that should be scaring people right now as things are in line with us actually meeting the 55k still based on the new Q2 numbers making Tesla shy of their 40% target by a rounding error at the moment... If that warrants a 20$+ drop then it should have happened last week instead of us rising into 280...
I still feel confident that 292 is in our sights and would recommend buying into this weakness. As I stated previously, we haven't had a *real* drop since we started this climb up from 185... It is just happening all at once (which is painful to see, I will admit)
Last time I stayed long and strong, I missed an opportunity to sell at $280 last September, when I wanted to, but held long and strong and watched it tumble down and struggle between $185 - $200 months afterwards. There was too much bearish pressure back then, but this time around, the bear thesis is very weak and short interest is still high. Also, several catalysts mentioned above.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
...tempted to BTFD (as Tesla story still intact).
As far as I know it was a report by Deutsche Bank.
I have the impression Deutsche is reloding their ammo by setting buy -> hold.
Just imagine they recomend a buy rating again in some days/weeks with a good market timing (new info and media coverage about Model X detailed spec, Model X first deliveries, ...).
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