Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ibcs]

You don't lose until you sell. If you aren't selling, just take the punches. Pretty sure we've all been there if not worse.

Last year, it was a loss. This year I'm taking punches and staying short / long for now.

 

[Paracelsus]

I still feel very stongly that we overshoot.....perhaps to $360....and then pull back to end the year around $333 for several reasons. We ended last year at $222, so that would be the 50% growth that Elon projected. And if I recall, he receives his final stock incentive at approximately $333. I think $360ish on the high because that will let Big Money make 100% on the stock from it's lows of ~$180 this year where I added position, while all of the long term investors still make 50%. I think that trend should continue going forward (perhaps the dip from $360 to $333 continues after the first of the year to 'create' another Big Money buying opportunity to gain another 100% in 2016 while we ride the stock till the end of the year for another 50%). Big Money has to see HUGE opportunity in the ability to easily manipulate this stock in its still-early years while the technology is still be accepted and implemented. What I am most hopeful for is that Elon will very publicly accept the incentive and then reinvest the bulk of it to help expand the Gigafactory (#1 or #2............or #1.5 with a larger footprint). That alone should help achieve next year's 50% gains

 

[Noble Ninja]

I still feel very stongly that we overshoot.....perhaps to $360....and then pull back to end the year around $333 for several reasons. We ended last year at $222, so that would be the 50% growth that Elon projected. And if I recall, he receives his final stock incentive at approximately $333. I think $360ish on the high because that will let Big Money make 100% on the stock from it's lows of ~$180 this year where I added position, while all of the long term investors still make 50% .......

I was thinking something similar as well. The 52-wk low is about $180 and if you use some fibonacci stuff, psychologically round numbers, and support / resistance lines, I was thinking we reach $360 ATH (100% gain from year-low of $180), then around October (typically horrible month for the macro market), we see a correction of 31.8% (fibonacci) of the high / low difference (360-180=180), which brings us to $302, just above the current ATH of $291 of last September (psychologically significant number). We'll then trade sideways around $291-$300 as support (psychological $300 mark), and have a "tug-of-war" with the bears like we did last year with the $191 - $200 mark as support.

I probably missed something there, but anyways this is just my instincts telling me this and wanted to share.

 

[chickensevil]

I still feel very stongly that we overshoot.....perhaps to $360....and then pull back to end the year around $333 for several reasons. We ended last year at $222, so that would be the 50% growth that Elon projected. And if I recall, he receives his final stock incentive at approximately $333. I think $360ish on the high because that will let Big Money make 100% on the stock from it's lows of ~$180 this year where I added position, while all of the long term investors still make 50%. I think that trend should continue going forward (perhaps the dip from $360 to $333 continues after the first of the year to 'create' another Big Money buying opportunity to gain another 100% in 2016 while we ride the stock till the end of the year for another 50%). Big Money has to see HUGE opportunity in the ability to easily manipulate this stock in its still-early years while the technology is still be accepted and implemented. What I am most hopeful for is that Elon will very publicly accept the incentive and then reinvest the bulk of it to help expand the Gigafactory (#1 or #2............or #1.5 with a larger footprint). That alone should help achieve next year's 50% gains

Just a caution, 50% growth in the company itself doesn't necessarily translate into 50% stock value appreciation. It could be more... it could be less... it could be negative... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is the quote I think I am looking for here.

Also just to correct the stock incentives are tied to market cap *and* specific goals. The issue has never been the market cap and continues to be hitting those goals. They still have to Drop the Model X Production vehicle (which is certainly in target), Make a Model 3 prototype (also in target), Make a Model 3 Beta (that is a couple years off), Make a Model 3 Production vehicle (late 2017), And hit total Gross Margins of 30% (I think that was it) for 4 quarters in a row (which seems highly unlikely at this point, but would be awesome if it did happen).

Otherwise, yes, I could see it going to ~360 and then finally having our serious pullback... maybe as low as the 260s again... as I am sure once we get into next year there are likely to be some bumps along the way that scares people off, that causes our next real sell-off.

 

[MartinAustin]

I was able to pick some up at $264. Feeling pretty good about that since it will likely go back up during this month.

 

[sub]

feels like we hit a bottom, at least that's what the optimist in me thinks!

 

[Robert.Boston]

interesting, did many people order that option?

Numbers in Norway showed low uptake of the executive rear seat, but it's China where this option is critical. I think @electracity's speculation that there's going to be a bigger refresh has some merit.

 

[AlMc]

Got creamed with the $280 weeklies I bought yesterday.....But, added 300 shares at $265....and some sept calls. TSLA is certainly a wild ride.

 

[doggusfluffy]

How Disruptive Is Tesla, Really? | MIT Technology Review

While Christensen’s theory has considerable explanatory value, it is not the only theory that can help us explain how new technology shapes the competitive dynamics of an industry. After all, Apple’s iPhone emerged as a high-margin, high-end product, but that didn’t stop Nokia from going bust in the transition to smartphones. Another important factor is related to how a new technology affects the capabilities and organizational structures of established firms.

Touch Screens Taking Over Dashboards, Despite Distraction Risks

“You can’t be looking at a screen and be looking at the road at the same time,” said David Strayer, a professor of cognition and neural science at the University of Utah, who has written several studies on distracted driving. The screens “are enabling activities that take your eyes off the road for longer than most safety advocates would say is safe.”

Notice the screenshot image of the Model S...actually doing both. :wink:

 

[Gtoffo]

Wow guys.....the expectations in this thread are really becoming irrational....can we please return to sanity?

We just had a 3 month 50%+ run and are approaching ATH....how can we NOT expect a spontaneous pullback or a big fall after an analyst downgrade?

I think the DB note describes what a prudent investor should do at these levels.....holding is exactly what I'm doing with my long term plays. We might continue going up from here and never see those prices again in the future, but it isn't an obvious buying opportunity to me.

Also, I see a lot of expectation for the Model X design studio, but let's not ignore the fact that most of its effects may already have been priced in (unless some big news comes out of it). The media will be all over it but the rise of the last few months has not been accidental. This means that any NEGATIVE piece of news will have a bigger impact at this point.

I think we should adopt a more prudent and conservative attitude... that way the stock might pleasantly exceed our expectations. Hoping/betting for 350$+ in the next few months (although possible with Tesla) is an unrealistic expectation.

 

[MartinAustin]

I see a lot of expectation for the Model X design studio, but let's not ignore the fact that most of its effects may already have been priced in (unless some big news comes out of it). The media will be all over it

This coverage will still bring investors to TSLA who don't think of it is as overpriced. Generally the momentum will be up... assuming the X looks good

 

[Renaud]

Wow guys.....the expectations in this thread are really becoming irrational....can we please return to sanity?

We just had a 3 month 50%+ run and are approaching ATH....how can we NOT expect a spontaneous pullback or a big fall after an analyst downgrade?

I think the DB note describes what a prudent investor should do at these levels.....holding is exactly what I'm doing with my long term plays. We might continue going up from here and never see those prices again in the future, but it isn't an obvious buying opportunity to me.

Also, I see a lot of expectation for the Model X design studio, but let's not ignore the fact that most of its effects may already have been priced in (unless some big news comes out of it). The media will be all over it but the rise of the last few months has not been accidental. This means that any NEGATIVE piece of news will have a bigger impact at this point.

I think we should adopt a more prudent and conservative attitude... that way the stock might pleasantly exceed our expectations. Hoping/betting for 350$+ in the next few months (although possible with Tesla) is an unrealistic expectation.

You have wise words and indeed this was expected and I suppose is not unhealthy after such a rally. I don't think we've had such a price drop since somewhere in march, and I don't think a lot of us were expecting to reach 280 again that soon.
As for the hoping/betting for 300-350 in the next few months, why not? Could be end of the year?
My memory is short, so what is the difference since last time we were at ATH august last year and now, in terms of sales/future prospects/GF?

 

[CyberDutchie]

I'm counting on hitting a new ATH of $300 some time before the end of the year. If that doesn't happen, we would have a down year on record for Tesla stock, which given all the progress made would be unwarranted.

 

[aznt1217]

Wow guys.....the expectations in this thread are really becoming irrational....can we please return to sanity?

We just had a 3 month 50%+ run and are approaching ATH....how can we NOT expect a spontaneous pullback or a big fall after an analyst downgrade?

I think the DB note describes what a prudent investor should do at these levels.....holding is exactly what I'm doing with my long term plays. We might continue going up from here and never see those prices again in the future, but it isn't an obvious buying opportunity to me.

Also, I see a lot of expectation for the Model X design studio, but let's not ignore the fact that most of its effects may already have been priced in (unless some big news comes out of it). The media will be all over it but the rise of the last few months has not been accidental. This means that any NEGATIVE piece of news will have a bigger impact at this point.

I think we should adopt a more prudent and conservative attitude... that way the stock might pleasantly exceed our expectations. Hoping/betting for 350$+ in the next few months (although possible with Tesla) is an unrealistic expectation.

Honestly TSLA the car company I believe is priced in for the X to have modest deliveries. What I think is totally not priced in (and cautiously so) is TSLA the battery/energy storage making company because we have not seen these come to fruition yet. We are experiencing Model S a la 2012 with Tesla energy storage products. Demand and contracts are there now it is up to Tesla to fulfill them. This has and always been the case with Tesla playing catch up because they created a product with a proof of concept that has people drooling at the mouth.

I do agree a lot of the veterans that are battle tested don't reply as often because we've gotten used to the undulations. I'm going to reference Elon's options milestone of 50B Market Cap in the next year or so. It will happen and when it happens be ready for it because it'll be fast because TSLA is still extremely divisive as is Elon Musk. People either love him or hate him.

The level of "obviousness" if that's even a word is relative to your time horizon. Long term (1+ year) it's very obvious. Short term (weekly trading) it's a little tricky but I can tell you that after a TMC conference people get real fired up because we get some tid bits of information that are public but take the media time to publish/absorb.

 

[sub]

I'm counting on hitting a new ATH of $300 some time before the end of the year. If that doesn't happen, we would have a down year on record for Tesla stock, which given all the progress made would be unwarranted.

$300 by the end of the year was my estimation also, anything above that would be gravy. I only have one Sept 200 call, everything else is J16 or farther out so i'm not concerned about today though it's never fun watching the account drop like this.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Obamas Renewable-Energy Fantasy - WSJ

Google engineers came to a similar conclusion last year. After seven years of investigation, they found no way to get the cost of renewables competitive with coal. “Unfortunately,” the engineers reported, “most of today’s clean generation sources can’t provide power that is both distributed and dispatchable”—that is, electricity that can be ramped up and down quickly. “Solar panels, for example, can be put on every rooftop, but can’t provide power if the sun isn’t shining.”

 

[ibcs]

Ameritrade just posted Option Alert: Tesla Aug $330 Call Sweep; 1988 Contracts at Ask @$1.68; Now $274.42. Can someone put this in English for a non-option person.

 

[aznt1217]

Obamas Renewable-Energy Fantasy - WSJ

Hence the invitation for Tesla Energy being called the missing piece. Didn't read all of it because of paywall.

 

[mejojo]

Obamas Renewable-Energy Fantasy - WSJ

"Bill Gates recently noted that the cost of decarbonization using today’s technology is ‘beyond astronomical.’"

Of course, the cost of Earth becoming uninhabitable to the human race is....hmmm....free??? irrelevant???

 

[SteveG3]

Wow guys.....the expectations in this thread are really becoming irrational....can we please return to sanity?

We just had a 3 month 50%+ run and are approaching ATH....how can we NOT expect a spontaneous pullback or a big fall after an analyst downgrade?

I think the DB note describes what a prudent investor should do at these levels.....holding is exactly what I'm doing with my long term plays. We might continue going up from here and never see those prices again in the future, but it isn't an obvious buying opportunity to me.

Also, I see a lot of expectation for the Model X design studio, but let's not ignore the fact that most of its effects may already have been priced in (unless some big news comes out of it). The media will be all over it but the rise of the last few months has not been accidental. This means that any NEGATIVE piece of news will have a bigger impact at this point.

I think we should adopt a more prudent and conservative attitude... that way the stock might pleasantly exceed our expectations. Hoping/betting for 350$+ in the next few months (although possible with Tesla) is an unrealistic expectation.

I agree. I sold the trading shares I bought ~$200 in the $250s. I actually think fair value is currently $350, but I consider 25-30% above and below that "hold" territory on my long term shares, and not a time to play with short term trading shares. We often feel the itch to make a move. Holding is one of the most skillful moves... it's exercising your will not to have your muscles do something foolish.

One final point, given the volatility in Tesla, I don't real see a stock price, but rather a range. To me, Tesla, is trading at $280 +/-15. I'm reasonably optimistic that with X and quite possibly improvements to the S (please a bigger battery!), the price will move up to $300 +/-15. fwiw, of course, if there's a big market downturn all this changes. All of this is why I don't hold onto my trading shares to try to get every last dollar in a run.