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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think that DB went uber-conservative with ASPs in order to get to their PT. My quick math based on their data leads to PT of $346.
So I do not think that their note is fair, even before the MX configurator goes live.
On another hand, I agree that we needed a breather...
In 2020:
100K Model S/X @ average selling price of $100K, 15% net margin à 100x100x0.15=$1,500M
400K Model III @ ASP of $50K, 10% net margin à 50x400x0.10=$2,000M
Stationary storage: 15Gwh at $250/kWh (official company pricing), 10% net margin à15x250x0.1=$375M
Total 2020 profit: $3,875
At 20x$3,875=$77,500M
Discounted 4 years back to 2016 (to reflect the 12-month PT): $52,000 / 1.12[SUP]4[/SUP]=$49,253
Assume 3% annual dilution over 4 years: $49,253 / 1.03[SUP]4[/SUP]= $43,760M
Current capitalization: $35,400 (@ SP of $279.72)
12-month PT: $279.72 x $43,760 / $35,400 =$346
------------- Edit ------------------
On an up-side to the data used by DB, I think that stationary storage will be multiples of 15Gwh assumed by DB, the auto production might hit 700K by 2020, and at that time, since there will be more factories (both automotive and battery) being constructed, the 20 PE might be unrealistically low.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Some other brewing news that I haven't seen much on to validate the potential real impact, but it could be playing a role in the down pre-market:
Tesla Motors Inc Faces Backlash From Contractors
Note this appears to be just the carpenters union, and there is only three people observed protesting. Something stinks about this... and if it is a sub-contractor issue only then complaining about Tesla is the wrong place to complain... you should complain to the prime contractor who you willingly took the job from at those crappy wages...
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Protest at Tesla | TESLA OWNER
Just to link back to the original source of the report (who is a reputable source, mind you) so don't think I am calling out on this being made news as people are just reporting what they are seeing. What I am implicating is the link to the carpenter's union making this Tesla's issue, when it isn't as evidenced by the explicit wording on the flyers: "requiring the General Contractors and all their sub-contractors pay the Carpeter Area Standard Wages and Benefits on all jobs all the time". Unless otherwise evidenced I am not inclined to think that Tesla is unfairly paying out for the contract itself and it is simply the contracting company that is shafting their employees... So call out the contracting companies by name, shame them, and remove the spotlight from Tesla.
In either case, if there is any sell off because of this it does *NOT* appear to be an issue with Tesla itself and would simply be a panic sell. I would recommend buying on this weakness, which is what I plan to do.
As others have stated a healthy pullback at this stage is probably a good thing as we have gone from ~250 to ~280 relatively unscathed... and the ~250 resistance didn't really drop the price it just traded flat for around a week. So a legitimate pullback would not necessarily be the worst thing in the world as we prep for a breakout of the ATH. I would only get cautious if we dip below 265.
Tesla Motors Inc Faces Backlash From Contractors
Note this appears to be just the carpenters union, and there is only three people observed protesting. Something stinks about this... and if it is a sub-contractor issue only then complaining about Tesla is the wrong place to complain... you should complain to the prime contractor who you willingly took the job from at those crappy wages...
- - - Updated - - -
Protest at Tesla | TESLA OWNER
Just to link back to the original source of the report (who is a reputable source, mind you) so don't think I am calling out on this being made news as people are just reporting what they are seeing. What I am implicating is the link to the carpenter's union making this Tesla's issue, when it isn't as evidenced by the explicit wording on the flyers: "requiring the General Contractors and all their sub-contractors pay the Carpeter Area Standard Wages and Benefits on all jobs all the time". Unless otherwise evidenced I am not inclined to think that Tesla is unfairly paying out for the contract itself and it is simply the contracting company that is shafting their employees... So call out the contracting companies by name, shame them, and remove the spotlight from Tesla.
In either case, if there is any sell off because of this it does *NOT* appear to be an issue with Tesla itself and would simply be a panic sell. I would recommend buying on this weakness, which is what I plan to do.
As others have stated a healthy pullback at this stage is probably a good thing as we have gone from ~250 to ~280 relatively unscathed... and the ~250 resistance didn't really drop the price it just traded flat for around a week. So a legitimate pullback would not necessarily be the worst thing in the world as we prep for a breakout of the ATH. I would only get cautious if we dip below 265.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Covered @ 2.77 for an almost $600 profit (cost basis 5.75)
Not sure where we go from here, hopefully fill the gap up.
Don't know, but it was only added a few months ago. Perhaps they are redoing just the executive seat for the existing S. But more likely, IMO, the S will be put in sync feature wise with the new model X. This would be a larger than anticipated announcement, if true.
With a change in production, I would expect Tesla may run out of a few options in advance of the new interior.
The counter argument would be that Deutsche Bank understands what is in the model X reveal, and is not impressed.
sahanim
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hockeythug
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
Crap, I bought my calls too soon... lol! Whelp, here is hoping we get the recovery I'm expecting otherwise I'm going to be hurting tomorrow!
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