Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[MikeC]

In the past week, Tesla purchased an additional 1550 acres of land for the Gigafactory to add to the original 1000 acres purchased (at 6:45):

Original Post: Tesla Gigafactory - Page 51

 

[everman]

And I have to clean up my monitor now...

Which beverage did you just spit all over your monitor? :biggrin:

 

[JRP3]

The untapped Russian market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sians-beg-musk-sell-us-your-iphone-on-wheels-

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The untapped Russian market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sians-beg-musk-sell-us-your-iphone-on-wheels-

This makes me want to put on a fur hat, get silly drunk on Vodka, stay up all night and wait for tomorrow's short squeeze.

 

[vgrinshpun]

In the past week, Tesla purchased an additional 1550 acres of land for the Gigafactory to add to the original 1000 acres purchased (at 6:45):

Original Post: Tesla Gigafactory - Page 51

Fantastic video!

Looks like Elon indeed not showing all of the cards! According to public information GF building is supposed to be 10M sq.ft. Looks like internal plans, however, are for 24M sq.ft. (starting from time stamp 16:10). So the building could be 2.4X of what was originally planed --> 120 GWh of batteries. Time to rename the factory Hecto-Gigafactory!

Among other juicy bits of information - Panasonic to bring 14(!) companies with them.

 

[Cattledog]

Fantastic video!

Looks like Elon indeed not showing all of the cards! According to public information GF building is supposed to be 10M sq.ft. Looks like internal plans, however, are for 24M sq.ft. (starting from time stamp 16:10). So the building could be 2.4X of what was originally planed --> 120 GWh of batteries. Time to rename the factory Hecto-Gigafactory!

Among other juicy bits of information - Panasonic to bring 14(!) companies with them.

He also said the factory will be producing batteries in March. My only worry is he was sharing a lot of numbers, not sure the level of accuracy for all of them. But super interesting and compelling video. Makes me want to go long on Storey County!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Australia Lures Solar Battery Suppliers - Bloomberg Business

 

[chickensevil]

Fantastic video!

Looks like Elon indeed not showing all of the cards! According to public information GF building is supposed to be 10M sq.ft. Looks like internal plans, however, are for 24M sq.ft. (starting from time stamp 16:10). So the building could be 2.4X of what was originally planed --> 120 GWh of batteries. Time to rename the factory Hecto-Gigafactory!

Among other juicy bits of information - Panasonic to bring 14(!) companies with them.

I think you might be multiplying up the wrong number. Shouldn't it be based on the 35GWh number as that is raw battery production? The 50 number was pack assembly as they would pull in from outside suppliers. Even still ~83GWh of production is pretty crazy!

- - - Updated - - -

The real question will be, how much of a scoop do we hold on this gigafactory news and when will it hit the stock? I'm buying some more Sept calls to be safe maybe some late July on the off chance of that plus the X news.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think you might be multiplying up the wrong number. Shouldn't it be based on the 35GWh number as that is raw battery production? The 50 number was pack assembly as they would pull in from outside suppliers. Even still ~83GWh of production is pretty crazy!

- - - Updated - - -

The real question will be, how much of a scoop do we hold on this gigafactory news and when will it hit the stock? I'm buying some more Sept calls to be safe maybe some late July on the off chance of that plus the X news.

The external supply of cells is supposed to be used initially, but the steady state future plan is to have 15GWh worth of cells coming for recycling. The recycling stream will be proportional to the cell production, so my 120GWh number is the right one.

 

[sahanim]

I think you might be multiplying up the wrong number. Shouldn't it be based on the 35GWh number as that is raw battery production? The 50 number was pack assembly as they would pull in from outside suppliers. Even still ~83GWh of production is pretty crazy!

- - - Updated - - -

The real question will be, how much of a scoop do we hold on this gigafactory news and when will it hit the stock? I'm buying some more Sept calls to be safe maybe some late July on the off chance of that plus the X news.

so (35 x 2.4) + 15 from outside suppliers= ~100 GWhs of pack production.

if size of factory correlates with production capability we're looking at a GF that is twice as big as originally intended.

holy smokes

 

[vgrinshpun]

Deutsche Bank downgrades TSLA from buy to hold, while raising PT from $245 to $280. In it's note it ironically assumes Tesla stationary storage to be only 15GWh annually in 2020.

streetinsider digest:

Deutsche Bank downgraded Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Buy to Hold with a price target of $280.00 (from $245.00). Analyst Rod Lache thinks shares already reflect opportunity in Stationary Storage, and he downgraded the stock based on valuation.

"We’ve been bullish on Tesla’s prospects, based on the company’s EV opportunity. In late April Tesla announced plans to leverage their scale and battery systems knowhow in Stationary Storage. This market is in its infancy (1.2 GWh added in the US in 2014). But we’ve become convinced that it will increase dramatically (14.3 GWh by 2020). The global opportunity is likely >2x this level. And we believe that TSLA could become a dominant player. But at this point, Tesla’s shares appear to already reflect this opportunity. We’re lowering TSLA to Hold on Valuation," said Lache.
"We’re adjusting our 2020 EPS estimate to $22.20 from $20.00. In our fcst, we assume that TSLA approaches 500k vehicle sales per year and achieves a 15% operating margin on those sales. We further assume that TSLA’s Stationary Storage business ramps to 15GWh’s per year. Our target price is increased to $280 (from $245) based on 20x our 2020 EPS est of $22.20, discounted back 12%/yr. But based on our current valuation framework, there is insufficient risk/reward to maintain a Buy," added the analyst.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.
Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $279.72 yesterday.

 

[AlMc]

Deutsche Bank downgrades TSLA from buy to hold, while raising PT from $245 to $280. In it's note it ironically assumes Tesla stationary storage to be only 15GWh annually in 2020.

streetinsider digest:

Well, it looks like this will sink my July 10 280s just bought yesterday:scared:

 

[ibcs]

Only if individuals could purchase before 8 AM. Looks like a buying opportunity to me.

 

[ScepticMatt]

In the past week, Tesla purchased an additional 1550 acres of land for the Gigafactory to add to the original 1000 acres purchased (at 6:45):

Original Post: Tesla Gigafactory - Page 51

just a note - This video is part 1 of 3.

He talks about how Panasonic brings 14 other companies, innovative vacuum waste water systems, 120 kV power lines etc.
Fun fact: An airplane could land and take off on the roof of the completed Gigafactory without turning around.

 

[InTheShadows]

Well, it looks like this will sink my July 10 280s just bought yesterday:scared:

On the bright side it will provide an opportunity to get some Septembers.

 

[AlMc]

On the bright side it will provide an opportunity to get some Septembers.

Yes. Such is life in 'options land':wink:

edit: Or if I was real aggressive I could double the weekly 280s.........hmmm.

 

[InTheShadows]

Yes. Such is life in 'options land':wink:

edit: Or if I was real aggressive I could double the weekly 280s.........hmmm.

That usually doesn't work when I try it.

This downgrade could hit us half decently. We haven't had a breather for some time now.

 

[ibcs]

Picked up shares at $274.75. Hopefully without any other news, we will get back to 277 for the day.

 

[AlMc]

That usually doesn't work when I try it.

This downgrade could hit us half decently. We haven't had a breather for some time now.

It has Only worked for me once.... 2014 NAIAS....reckless growth....my absolute favorite TSLA time. I agree it may be time for a breather.

 

[aznt1217]

I actually think the DB note is fair ... Till Model X comes out