Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

Folks. News flash. 7Racer says his MX is in PRODUCTION!

BIW (metal shell) is done and headed to paint shop soon!

link:
Production ramp up discussion - Page 13

 

[MikeC]

Great news on the MX production confirmation.

Looks like LG is supplying the cells for the Roadster upgrade: Tesla Gets Boost From Korean Battery Maker LG Chem - WSJ

The article says that Panasonic is the only known supplier, but this cites Samsung as a supplier in February 2015: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2015/02/133_173217.html

I'm also not sure if LG "has earned a reputation among car makers for its high-quality materials that have led to long-lasting batteries."

I wrote in another thread that Tesla buying up LG's supply is further squeezing out the legacy automakers and their aspirations for a "Tesla killer".

 

[sub]

This is how a rumor start. Double check Bonnie's response. There is nothing concrete she mentioned.

No intention to mislead on my part, I could have quoted her directly to avoid confusion. However, read what she said and what I posted and it's not far off, we both used the term "expect(ing)". She has now been quoted directly and it appears we have more data with 7racer.

 

[replicant]

Great news on the MX production confirmation.

Looks like LG is supplying the cells for the Roadster upgrade: Tesla Gets Boost From Korean Battery Maker LG Chem - WSJ

The article says that Panasonic is the only known supplier, but this cites Samsung as a supplier in February 2015: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2015/02/133_173217.html

I'm also not sure if LG "has earned a reputation among car makers for its high-quality materials that have led to long-lasting batteries."

I wrote in another thread that Tesla buying up LG's supply is further squeezing out the legacy automakers and their aspirations for a "Tesla killer".

This article talked about a Samsung SDI deal back in August 2013:

Samsung SDI and Tesla Motors are in the final stage of signing a contract for the Korean firm to supply lithium ion batteries for the California-based electric carmaker, according to industry sources.

“We understand SDI and Tesla are undergoing last-minute tests before the Korean company starts to supply its batteries,” said a source close to the matter.


Final steps before the contract is inked include testing the battery life, which will be conducted by Samsung SDI, coupled with driving and safety tests, which are to be carried out jointly by SDI and Tesla.


The Tesla model that SDI will supply has yet to be specified, but sources said it was likely to be the Model S, which is selling strong, and possibly the Model X, which is to be produced starting next year.

BYD and LG Chem were listed as contenders too. Has anything come through from these "final steps" in the last two years? I'm tempted to view these leaks as tactics to turn up the heat on Panasonics, and I hope they won't get tired...

 

[Room_A113]

I'm also not sure if LG "has earned a reputation among car makers for its high-quality materials that have led to long-lasting batteries."

“We’ve seen what I would call pharmaceutical levels of quality in cell production. Of the more than 20 million cells that have been produced for the first generation Chevy Volt, we’ve seen less than 2 problems per million cells produced.” Larry Nitz, General Motors’ vice president of electrification.

Plus, LG cells have been on the road in Volts for nearly half a decade now with no degradation in range even for a guy who has over 270,000 miles on his Volt. High Quality? Check. Long lasting? You bet.

 

[jhm]

Nope.

Tesla wants batteries with minerals mined to Western standards of environmental responsibility and no conflict minerals.

On top the material issue, can't have Tesla haters all over the internet(Seeking Alpha) posting pictures of Chinese mines leaving of cesspool of chemicals in rivers meant as drinking source or pictures of African kids with their hands blown/chopped off because Tesla funded local warlord by using their minerals.

I take it importing minerals into China from non Chinese companies is problematic as well as authenticating Chinese minerals are mined clean or purchased from ethical sources.

Thanks for the info. This is quite a conundrum. In the long run, Tesla does well to make batteries in China for domestic use, but must secure an ethical supply chain. Building out that supply chain could be most difficult. I wonder if this could be an opportunity for Australia or some other country in the region.

 

[Cosmacelf]

“We’ve seen what I would call pharmaceutical levels of quality in cell production. Of the more than 20 million cells that have been produced for the first generation Chevy Volt, we’ve seen less than 2 problems per million cells produced.” Larry Nitz, General Motors’ vice president of electrification.

Plus, LG cells have been on the road in Volts for nearly half a decade now with no degradation in range even for a guy who has over 270,000 miles on his Volt. High Quality? Check. Long lasting? You bet.

One of the reasons the Volt doesn't have range degradation is that GM opted to reserve a significant amount of pack capacity for anticipated range degradation. When new, the battery actually has a much longer range, but GM doesn't give you access to this range. Tesla does it differently, giving you as much range as the car has at any point in its life.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla does it differently, giving you as much range as the car has at any point in its life.

It's well documented that this is not the case. The reserve is less, but is there.

 

[Room_A113]

It's well documented that this is not the case. The reserve is less, but is there.

Yes, a Tesla 85 Kwh battery is estimated to have 76 kwh available when new, or about 90% of total capacity.

My recollection is that the 2011-2015 Volts were really conservative and utilized about 65% of total capacity. I think one of the reasons that the electric range on the 2016 Volt jumped from 38 miles to 53 miles is because GM realized it was being too conservative with the first gen Volt and is using more capacity in the 2016.

Regarding TSLA stock, it can only be a good thing that Tesla is getting batteries from LG too, because Panasonic can't just relax and think they have Tesla completely to themselves. Competition is good.

 

[Drax7]

"Regarding TSLA stock, it can only be a good thing that Tesla is getting batteries from LG too, because Panasonic can't just relax and think they have Tesla completely to themselves. Competition is good." [/QUOTE]

Panasonic is an investor in tesla, and partner.
If panasonic wants to market power packs, then tesla needs another supplier.

 

[JRP3]

Regarding TSLA stock, it can only be a good thing that Tesla is getting batteries from LG too, because Panasonic can't just relax and think they have Tesla completely to themselves. Competition is good.

Not sure if we can give too much weight into LG supplying some cells for a handful of Roadster upgrade packs.

 

[FredTMC]

Regarding MX entering actual production, I contacted a reporter. This has hit the press yet. It will.

 

[aznt1217]

Regarding MX entering actual production, I contacted a reporter. This has hit the press yet. It will.

lol. By now we know how it will be spun depending on next Tuesday (even though it's totally wrong)

If it's a Miss: Model X delay causes miss in earnings. Elon Musk fails to deliver.
If it's a Beat: Model X propels Tesla to a quarter beat. Elon Musk is everything.

I think I'm jaded.

 

[MitchJi]

Regarding MX entering actual production, I contacted a reporter. This has hit the press yet. It will.

Would you mind clarifying that?

Did you provide the information to the reporter or get it from them?

Good news or bad?

 

[FredTMC]

lol. By now we know how it will be spun depending on next Tuesday (even though it's totally wrong)

If it's a Miss: Model X delay causes miss in earnings. Elon Musk fails to deliver.
If it's a Beat: Model X propels Tesla to a quarter beat. Elon Musk is everything.

I think I'm jaded.

lol. So true

I think main thing for next Tuesday is whether or not Tesla reaffirms Q4 delivery guidance.
I think they will reaffirm 50k-55k

 

[MikeC]

This article talked about a Samsung SDI deal back in August 2013:


BYD and LG Chem were listed as contenders too. Has anything come through from these "final steps" in the last two years? I'm tempted to view these leaks as tactics to turn up the heat on Panasonics, and I hope they won't get tired...

The article I linked to in Korea Times says that Samsung is expected to supply 8% of demand in 2015.

 

[FredTMC]

Would you mind clarifying that?

Did you provide the information to the reporter or get it from them?

Good news or bad?

i provided info

 

[Lump]

Regarding MX entering actual production, I contacted a reporter. This has hit the press yet. It will.

***Extra Extra***

Tesla built a metal shell for a customer who gave them $40k 3 years ago :smile:.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Volkswagen Suffers Loss Due to Scandal but Sales Hold Up

But while the German carmaker warned Wednesday that operating profit this year would be "down significantly," it indicated that sales would prove resilient.

The company stuck to its prediction that unit sales would be on a level with last year's record 10.14 million. Ordinary shares in Volkswagen AG rose 1.9 percent to 124.15 euros in afternoon trading in Europe.

I thought this was a very cool interactive way to display a news story. Debbie Downer news of course.

Greenland Is Melting Away

 

[MikeC]

“We’ve seen what I would call pharmaceutical levels of quality in cell production. Of the more than 20 million cells that have been produced for the first generation Chevy Volt, we’ve seen less than 2 problems per million cells produced.” Larry Nitz, General Motors’ vice president of electrification.

Plus, LG cells have been on the road in Volts for nearly half a decade now with no degradation in range even for a guy who has over 270,000 miles on his Volt. High Quality? Check. Long lasting? You bet.

The GM president of electrification is not exactly an objective source, I can see why he was not named in the article. And how many of those 270,000 miles on the Volt were electric?

The implication in the article was that LG makes higher quality cells than Panasonic and Samsung, but does not provide any support for that.