-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
- Status
hockeythug
Active Member
Are the numbers on that site accurate? #1 in miles is a 2012 owner who drives an average of like 91k a year?
Last edited:
So assuming he had the car for 4 years, we're talking 66 electric miles per day for 365 days each year. On a battery that gives 38 miles/charge. So basically he fills and empties his battery twice per day, every day. Not impossible, I guess, but seems somewhat unlikely.
You're right that it's not impossible. The owner has a 220 mile round-trip commute and is able to charge at work.
Erick Belmer is the proud owner of a 2012 Volt, As Belmer tells InsideEVs, the Volt was purchased on March 28, 2012. Since then, it’s seen a daily commute of 220 miles there and back, with a single longest trip of 430 miles in a day. Oil changes come every 38,000 miles and tire rotations every 10,000 miles. That’s basically all the maintenance that’s been required on Belmer’s Volt.
More details at this link:
First Chevy Volt To 200,000 Miles
Agreed that it can cut both way, i.e. Tesla might need to find another supplier if the upset Panasonic.My point is that (1) competition is good, i.e. it will keep Panasonic honest and working harder for Tesla's business than if Panasonic had a monopoly, and (2) it's never a good idea to work with a single supplier for a critical item. Having a working relationship another battery supplier is a good thing.
All things considered I'm happier as a TSLA stockholder to know that Tesla is working with more than one battery supplier than having a single battery supplier.
Last edited:
dhrivnak
Active Member
We have a Volt now and I can confirm my numbers are correct or at most a day off.
Oh man thanks for that. I needed a good laugh.
He basically nicely nested all the bear points into 1 article that is gift wrapped "non offensively"
sub
Active Member
Yet another article full of drivel and misinformation by a clearly biased author. Either the author is uninformed or purposely spreading disinformation. Can you spot the lie?
"Although Elon has said he's "totally cool" with other brands using the Superchargers, Tesla alsosent out letters this summer to its most frequent Supercharger users asking them to limit their usage. Tesla claims it asked owners to limit usage in order to improve the ownership experience for all Tesla drivers. I wonder, however, if this was a ploy for Tesla to cut its monthly power bill."
hockeythug
Active Member
Nice. Thats a pretty cool site. I didn't know about that owners commute when I posted that.
Be careful out there... there could be a lot of turmoil going into this ER. But therefore, also a lot of opportunity. If you are playing the short term, I believe you can lose money in this market whether you are long or short TSLA. I couldn't even hazard to guess which direction to put new money if one was investing in TSLA ahead of ER. However, I think we are very likely higher than here in early 2016. Can the bears make a lot of money in between? Yes. But the problem for the bears is that time works against them. We have a number of catalysts - Tesla Energy product revenue, Model X shipping, new markets, Model 3 reveal, Gigafactory opening, and so forth all within the next 6 months.
The options pricing is sky high in both directions right now, so even if you guessed the right direction, you might lose anyways as the IV drops or any number of other scenarios that screw everyone but the market makers.
The worst case scenario for Tesla right now is actually not as dire as one had possibly thought it would be from 9 months ago. That's because they already raised capital to the tune of $700 million. So they have plenty of capital even with the Model X delay to early 2016. The worst case now is 2015 annual deliveries at 45-48k vehicles with continued high capex spend for expansion. It's not that bad from a numbers perspective, at least relative to other quarters. But the sentiment is the big issue as Tesla is really having some execution problems combined with the active FUD campaigns from anti-Tesla factions. Once they start delivering some of these things, we won't remember them all that well in hindsight, just like most of us don't remember the fall of 2012 execution problems all that well. Some of us, obviously, have that seared in their memories.
At the moment, I'm slightly bearish going into ER. We don't know how much of the worst case scenario is already built into the current stock price. I think the long term story is still intact, but has taken some body blows which are mostly self induced. There was no reason to make the Model X the most difficult car to build in the world. I am looking forward to buying TSLA on sale if comes to that.
The options pricing is sky high in both directions right now, so even if you guessed the right direction, you might lose anyways as the IV drops or any number of other scenarios that screw everyone but the market makers.
The worst case scenario for Tesla right now is actually not as dire as one had possibly thought it would be from 9 months ago. That's because they already raised capital to the tune of $700 million. So they have plenty of capital even with the Model X delay to early 2016. The worst case now is 2015 annual deliveries at 45-48k vehicles with continued high capex spend for expansion. It's not that bad from a numbers perspective, at least relative to other quarters. But the sentiment is the big issue as Tesla is really having some execution problems combined with the active FUD campaigns from anti-Tesla factions. Once they start delivering some of these things, we won't remember them all that well in hindsight, just like most of us don't remember the fall of 2012 execution problems all that well. Some of us, obviously, have that seared in their memories.
At the moment, I'm slightly bearish going into ER. We don't know how much of the worst case scenario is already built into the current stock price. I think the long term story is still intact, but has taken some body blows which are mostly self induced. There was no reason to make the Model X the most difficult car to build in the world. I am looking forward to buying TSLA on sale if comes to that.
jesselivenomore
Member
Clearly not seared in enough. If the current "problems" are anything like the fall of 2012's execution problems, it would be a great buying opportunity just like fall 2012, as opposed to a time to be careful.
When the majority is cautious, it is time to get greedy. And when most are greedy, it is time to be careful. Ask yourself, with the current sentiment surrounding TSLA, are most cautious or greedy?
I am cautious, like techmaven. If that means you, and other are TSLA buyers before the ER and I miss out by waiting a little bit...I tip my hat to you.:wink:
jesselivenomore
Member
To clarify, as someone who has traded for a living for the past 15 years, I would advise caution and to be careful at ALL times. This is your hard earned money at stake, and no matter how sure you are of your thesis, anything can happen. With that said, based on what I said above, I don't think the current environment warrants any more caution than normal.
hockeythug
Active Member
I will be out of my positions before earnings. I don't like what has been going on at all. A lot of it is media driven currently. More "Is Tesla Doomed" articles every day. I don't know what they can say on the CC about X launch to calm peoples fears.
Honestly... the street just wants progress updates right now so they can somehow extrapolate what is going to come next year. The Management team gets this and Q3 is pivotal only because you have institutions and large investors assessing their large core holding next year along with asset allocations. With Tesla, they'll need to do the following:
1. Give an update on current happenings (X, Ramp, Capex investment and results to date)
2. Implications of this current update on Q4 + Early H116
3. Mentioning of Model 3 release + preorder -- solidifying the tweets from Elon (but with clearer timing)
4. Clarity into issues (if they exist) for X ramp... or if it is simply Tesla's perfectionism at play.
5. How healthy is Model S demand in the long term or "steady state"
6. Clarification on Cash Burn rate for the foreseeable future...
7. Update on Tesla energy
I think most of us know the answers to this, but on the CC the analysts need to revise their assumptions in the Model to mess around with their PT's.
What exactly is wrong with the basic premise of this article?
Except for minor omissions (cheaper Model X versions supposedly coming in 2016 after current $132-142k versions; base Model3 only advertised for 200+ miles, not 300...) this article sums up the major problem(s) at Tesla very well imho:
Over-promise and under-deliver (and delivering that too late).
Until / Unless Tesla one day ships the Model3 as promised for around $35k in large numbers and generates positive cash-flows by then, this last sentence from the article does sum up Tesla's state:
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked