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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I can easily see bears bringing this up and adding it to their argument. But it's virtually impossible to add onto the 20K+ pre-orders because:

1) It doesn't make a lot of sense to order now. Why pre-order and receive your X in 12 months, rather than simply waiting until then and receiving about 6 weeks after you order? I personally know and have read about several people who already know they want one but are just waiting.
2) There are basically no Xs on the road and the vehicle has no proven track record. Not everybody believes in the product as much as the members on this forum. A large audience is still waiting on the reception from customers and reports. Once the X is seen/reviewed enough, more people will look more into it.
3) Unless you already ordered your X and were at the reveal, you haven't gotten to test drive one. Similar to my 2nd point, but the actual driving experience will push many into ordering. You have to be an enormous Tesla fan to order a vehicle of that price if you haven't driven it yet, in which case you may already be included in the current pre-order tally.

Overall, Tesla is required to clear out most of the original pre-orders before picking up a significant amount more (and that's expected.) I hope the CC re-assures positive X demand because that's what investors are focusing on for the call (along with X ramp).
 
This is what happened to BlackBerry (BBRY) back in mid-January this year, where the stock was around $10/share and a rumour about Samsung buying BlackBerry for $12-$15 per share sent the stock up 30% the very next day at 10x average volume, only to fall back down about 25% the day after that. After a few weeks, nobody cared about it anymore and we never heard any more news articles or comments from Samsung either. Suspicious manipulation via the media indeed.

Media manipulation of the stock market? Say it ain't so?!
 
So, what is everyone's play heading in to earnings? I'm young and have a strong stomach, so I'm considering loading up some way OOM J17 calls ($400 strike or so) before the call. If the SP gets whacked I plan on tripling up the J17s to cost average down and settle in for a long wait. Core shares will remain untouched.
If you feel like taking a gamble it sounds okay to me, except the combination of tripling down with over $400 J17's for a long wait.

IMO, for a long wait, with over $400 calls, waiting a few weeks and getting J18's makes more sense.
 
Volkswagen Says 800,000 More Cars Affected in Emissions Probe - Bloomberg Business

Volkswagen didn’t identify the brands or types of engines affected. The announcement comes a day after U.S. authorities faulted the manufacturer for a wider-spread use of emission-cheating software than Volkswagen had previously admitted, a claim the company initially rejected. Volkswagen has already set aside 6.7 billion euros to cover fixes of the 11 million cars worldwide it has so far identified as containing the illegal software, and management has said the sum will not suffice to cover lawsuits, fines and compensation.
 

This is ecalating quicker than I expected.

While everybody knows Porsche involved in exhaust fraud with SUV Cayenne diesel there is again some news.
Now Volkswagen admitts to have cheated with non-diesel ICE.
Now Volkswagen admitts to not only having issues with NOx but CO2.
(link)

Should Musk adress this topic during the call later on or is that a bad idea.
People love their Teslas for their performance and people love their Teslas for their ecofriendlyness.
 
If you feel like taking a gamble it sounds okay to me, except the combination of tripling down with over $400 J17's for a long wait.

IMO, for a long wait, with over $400 calls, waiting a few weeks and getting J18's makes more sense.

I say it's for a long wait, but it probably won't be. I'm incredibly impatient when it comes to options. Always taking profit off the table or cutting losses within a month or so even when I intend to be a little more long term. I don't really care if anything ever gets in the money, I tend to exit the position long before that happens. It's served me well but it's also frustrating to miss out on lost upside or cut losses before a nice reversal.
 
wow...
MS/MX are in direct competition with cayenne, panamera, A8/7, Q5. While probably not great form to point out directly the ongoing investigation, it is wise to remind listeners the mission of Tesla motors.

This is ecalating quicker than I expected.

While everybody knows Porsche involved in exhaust fraud with SUV Cayenne diesel there is again some news.
Now Volkswagen admitts to have cheated with non-diesel ICE.
Now Volkswagen admitts to not only having issues with NOx but CO2.
(link)

Should Musk adress this topic during the call later on or is that a bad idea.
People love their Teslas for their performance and people love their Teslas for their ecofriendlyness.
 
Calm before the storm today! FWIW, insideevs is out with their October delivery estimates for Tesla.
Model X: Sep 6, Oct 4. Deliveries declined 33% mom :(
Model S: Oct 1900.
LOL, and when has that not happened from the last month of the quarter to the first month of the quarter? Higher than the other 3 first months of the quarter this year. Not enough to meet guidance so we are obviously relying on a massive December ramp if that is going to happen. Still by extrapolating 47k for the year looks easily doable plus whatever X gets produced.
 
I'm going to go take a nap and try and sleep through the release of the report if I can. I told my wife not to make any weekend plans just yet, I may spend that time curled up in the corner crying. I'm optimistic though, Elon is over due to give us something good!
 
I'm going to go take a nap and try and sleep through the release of the report if I can. I told my wife not to make any weekend plans just yet, I may spend that time curled up in the corner crying. I'm optimistic though, Elon is over due to give us something good!

I hope so too, but they really need to speak with some ENERGY and excitement!....Last conference call was like a funeral. I understand that probably none of them like doing these calls with Analysts, but it is a publicly traded company and they should be acting and speaking like champions for Tesla.

PS - stock is really dropping as we approach 4:00 pm. Down 2.5% now :(
 
I hope so too, but they really need to speak with some ENERGY and excitement!....Last conference call was like a funeral. I understand that probably none of them like doing these calls with Analysts, but it is a publicly traded company and they should be acting and speaking like champions for Tesla.

PS - stock is really dropping as we approach 4:00 pm. Down 2.5% now :(


I don't know why but I like this set-up.

Just a gut feel. Not taking any actions on it either.
 
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