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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I'm very excited about tomorrows announcement. For as long as I've been a shareholder (from Sept 14) apart from this month, I've seen only meanderings downwards with slight rises due to 'D' and software upgrades etc.
It took me 24 hours back then to comprehend Tesla's ambition, vision and therefore their quite astonishing potential. I feel this is a fascinating moment - possibly even historic. It is one of EM's goals coming to life; the start of the process of weaning the world off burning the black stuff (which is seriously compelling to most of us who live on this rock) - offering us all the option of saving todays energy for tonight - (I'm not sure exactly how to classify this).
Will the value of Tesla (Motors?) have to be almost completely reassessed on the back of tomorrows announcement? It is a massive unknown, a step into another place. Could this even double the value of the company? (X,3 & gigafactory already priced in, but not this?)
In my opinion the game changer has arrived, even if the fruits are not abundantly with us at this early point. So I'd expect TSLA to potter around the 130-5 mark until Friday lunch time or so and then for the share voltage to go up on one of Elon's rockets when the penny drops and to continue when the (media) news has been fully absorbed over the weekend.
Am I barking up the wrong tree or do others share this sentiment? Are there some who 'get' it and some who just don't?
It took me 24 hours back then to comprehend Tesla's ambition, vision and therefore their quite astonishing potential. I feel this is a fascinating moment - possibly even historic. It is one of EM's goals coming to life; the start of the process of weaning the world off burning the black stuff (which is seriously compelling to most of us who live on this rock) - offering us all the option of saving todays energy for tonight - (I'm not sure exactly how to classify this).
Will the value of Tesla (Motors?) have to be almost completely reassessed on the back of tomorrows announcement? It is a massive unknown, a step into another place. Could this even double the value of the company? (X,3 & gigafactory already priced in, but not this?)
In my opinion the game changer has arrived, even if the fruits are not abundantly with us at this early point. So I'd expect TSLA to potter around the 130-5 mark until Friday lunch time or so and then for the share voltage to go up on one of Elon's rockets when the penny drops and to continue when the (media) news has been fully absorbed over the weekend.
Am I barking up the wrong tree or do others share this sentiment? Are there some who 'get' it and some who just don't?
Perfectlogic
Member
I wouldn't get my hopes up too high for this announcements effect to the SP, a lot have been priced in already dont forget that. I don't think we will break the $265 barrier with significant volume before we see a succesful X launch with lots of demand and a great 2016 guidance, which, as implied, I do expect, but that will be later this year.
That would be Samsung SDI, and it was extensively discussed elsewhere too.
Samsung SDI to supply more batteries to Tesla - 2015-08-02
was discussed even earlier (2013-08-28)Korea Times said:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Adds Samsung To Its Battery Supply Chain
Reuters 2013-10-04ValueWalk said:
Reuters said:
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Gerasimental
Member
None of them seemed to have considered, or at least not discussed, the possibility that the new supplier was qualified specifically for the stationary storage products. I mentioned this elsewhere, but it would be odd to me to have two different suppliers supplying cells for the same products. If we assume the new supplier IS to supply automotive cells, would one battery pack consist of both SDI and Panasonic cells? Or would there be packs made with SDI cells and packs made with Panasonic cells?
Surely makes more sense to get 200Wh/kg cells for one product from one supplier and 250Wh/kg cells for another product from another supplier. If this is the case, it'll be interesting to see if we can learn anything about Tesla's ambitions for the StSt market by looking at the size of the contracts with SDI.
This is also consistent with Elon's statement that there will be no cell supply competition between automotive and stationary storage products.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
You got it,
I got it,
many here got it.
I'm not sure about the market out there.
Yes the Deutsche Bank report gave us a nice push up on monday.
Elon is giving a nice party tomorrow evening. Hopefully he will paint a pretty picture in bright colors. He will show us the impact of what this is all about. He is good at this kind of thing.
So then, the general public will start to get it.
ATH is imminent within 3 months, I tend to believe.
Gtoffo
Member
Let's keep our heads cool guys... I can remember a few other times in which we all got a bit too giddy and greedy...
sub
Active Member
After the consistent underwhelming response to reveals over the past 6-12 months I'm keeping optimism low for this one regarding short term SP jump. That doesn't mean I'm not hoping for this to be a game changing announcement and a major short squeeze! I have no short term plays so I'm not affected much either way.
Also tomorrow's event could be light on specifics. However, it could be guidance will be in the CC for stationary storage. That guidance could be the big stock mover. If they don't talk about utility pipeline then tomorrow's event won't move anything and/or it will go down. But it won't be down for long.
California Governor Orders New Target for Emissions Cuts: NY Times
"The governor’s order did not give details of how the state would reach the new goals, though Mr. Brown in his speech here noted the success of the auto and energy industry so far in meeting the emission targets that the state has set over the years."
“We’re sending the signals to the private economy to create, to innovate, and to make the kind of response that will enable Californians to live in compatibility with the environment,” he said. “We can do it.”
"The governor’s order did not give details of how the state would reach the new goals, though Mr. Brown in his speech here noted the success of the auto and energy industry so far in meeting the emission targets that the state has set over the years."
“We’re sending the signals to the private economy to create, to innovate, and to make the kind of response that will enable Californians to live in compatibility with the environment,” he said. “We can do it.”
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Matt, those are all worth reading. The line in SECs filing stood out to me as the first direct statement I knew of from Tesla of such a near term event. I was hopeful that it meant reports re Samsung were valid.
You are correct that the last few announcements were stock fizzles,and this on might be as well. The (possible) difference with this one is that the previous announcements were new products and features that are exciting to consumers and puzzling for shareholders. This one is more of a straight business announcement that might resonate with wall street. Credit to the poster that made a more eloquent case for that a few days ago
In a decade or so, I suppose it's possible this could be as much as half of Tesla's business. My sense is that at this point those at Tesla themselves only have a vague sense of how large the stationary storage business will be vs. the vehicle business. Near term, I think the market at most will value stationary storage as expanding Tesla's business 25% or so when they see some significant contracts. That said, I think your Tesla position will continue to be more pleasing for you in the coming months given the expected news flow. I would be surprised if your position is not in positive territory for you by this time next year (unless there's an overall market crash).
I'm certain that one pack won't consist of mixed cells, balancing that pack would be a nightmare.
The only reference to automotive products is this speculation from an official:
Tesla might just don't want to put all their eggs in one basket, and try to avoid relying too much on one supplier. Purchasing cells from different manufacturers encourage the entire industry to participate in the competition and do their best to provide standardization and technological improvements. It also sends a message to Panasonic, showing that they can't rest on their laurels.
mejojo
Active Member
http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/04/elon-musk-battery-silent-revolutions/
I have a sort of giddy feeling about Friday morning........it will be exciting.
I have a sort of giddy feeling about Friday morning........it will be exciting.
Electrifying
Member
I think Trip is speculating quite a bit:
This space is quite crowded with big established and startup players such as
Elementum , Flextronics
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