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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Short term is so tough to predict...just think of how much further down we'd be today if Jefferies didn't give us such a big bump in the morning, we might be down $10 today otherwise...
my short term prediction is that sentiment is overly negative and that we should bounce back after earnings even with expected numbers (other than the beat of 500 deliveries) released in ER...
I am extremely curious to see what the next two NASDAQ short position reports show...I hope it's been creeping up even higher to set the stage for the next short squeeze (it seems apparent that we don't have any short squeeze going on right now or much of one recently)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Heh. Just landed in another place with no reliable enough connection to my broker. Looks like I won't be able to trade till I reach Germany. So yeah. Levitate it up for me boyz and galz
doggusfluffy
Closed
Perfectlogic
Member
I think it shows a lot of weakness that TSLA can't go higher on news like we had today. I think the battery business news is most likely priced in now (by the market) as the SP is up significantly from the lows, I mean the market has a hard enough time giving TSLA market cap for their growth in the well established auto business, I don't see how the market then would value Teslas potential growth in the not yet established battery business that high. I think there is a good chance Tesla will drift lower once again when the battery storage news starts to die down like we have seen several times before with the stock. I hope to get some cheap shares around the support levels of $180-$200 before we get into the later part of the year with some more sustained catalysts like a successful X launch and a nice 100k+ 2016 guidance. This opinion probably won't be well recieved by the majority but I think its important to have a balanced discussion.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Your opinion is valued. I think now short-term it all comes down to the nitty gritty details in the ER regarding the storage business and the Gigafactory. If they share hard numbers on what kind of gross margins they expect with storage sales to utilies, hard numbers on demand (for example we're sold out already for 2015 for utility storage at 30% GM or some such thing), if they talk about GF 2 and 3 alerady, if they give hard numbers on cost reductions - $/kWh - thing like that then I don't think we'll drift down. But if they only give soft data and projections we will. It's like a cross-roads for the stock, this ER. Either they follow up the stationary storage annoucment with hard numbers now, or that comes later.
This said, should the stock once again drift down in to the $180-190s it will be an absolute gift to us long-term investors since TSLA has been severly derisked and should be valued substantially higher with the news we've learned about stationary storage.
mejojo
Active Member
Well, I don't get it. There were PLENTY of cheap shares at $180-$200 just a month ago. Why would you buy now, if not then?
Perfectlogic
Member
I agree. The battery business is definately not all smoke and mirrors, energy was a $6T industry in 2011 and batteries are a core part of the transition to sustainable energy, it's definately possible Elon can get Wall Street hyped.
"This said, should the stock once again drift down in to the $180-190s it will be an absolute gift to us long-term investors since TSLA has been severly derisked and should be valued substantially higher with the news we've learned about stationary storage."
We shouldnt forget though that any serious Tesla investor have known about the battery storage potential for years.
@mejojo
I did buy then, and I like the recent developement don't get me wrong; Teslas battery storage product seems ready to ship soon and is competetive, but we all knew it would be coming.
I like how the sentiment changed just as I hit send on my last post, typical I guess, lol.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
We'll you'll have to agree that the potential value of this line of business is quite a bit more tangible now than it was a couple of months ago? After all we had no information on Tesla's ability to price these products as attractively as they have done. Also we didn't have any definitive info on how far along they were with actual working, scalable, sellable product lines. Now we've heard definitive info om pricing and seen photos of the actual battery units, we know when they will ship, we know they have orders lined up.
So yes, TSLA at $180 is a far better buy than TSLA at $180 earlier this year.
Faith goes a long way but real-world business goes further.
On the contrary, we showed tremendous strength today against a complete sell-off in the NASDAQ brought about by this morning's economic data. Did you not see the entire rest of the market deep in the red except for basically TSLA and NFLX?
If the market decides macro news tomorrow is better, watch out above.
Perfectlogic
Member
I agree Tesla is better positioned now than earlier this year, but imo it isn't much. Tesla has their car battery cost down to around $200 (at least thats what I'm reading) so the pricing of $250/kwh and $350/kwh for utility scale and home storage respectively didn't come as a surprise to me, maybe slightly better than what I had expected, depends on the utility scale battery margins. But it is ready now and thats great, I'm just arguing about how I think the market will value TSLA in the coming months, and the trend have been that TSLA slides down between catalysts and I think this one might have been accounted for at this point. Also if we do see a lowering of full year guidance tomorrow I don't think the market will like that at all.
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I did notice the red market today, but I still don't think the outperformance of TSLA was very strong considering the catalyst we had.
ZachShahan
Active Member
I completely agree. All is going to depend on how specific Tesla gets. But if the price drops down below $200 again, I expect it won't be for too long and will be the last time.
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I think its competitiveness became pretty clear in January (or earlier?) when JB gave a strong presentation on the storage side of Tesla's business. But wasn't widely picked up and I don't think the average investor or analyst (one who doesn't follow the storage market closely) would move money on it. And yeah, it was much less tangible.
This announcement solidified what he was talking about, and presented it in a prettier package than I expected, but doesn't add a lot to the info that was out there before (in deep corners of the interwebs). Of course, the price is better than many expected, but also in line with what we'd expected based on the assumed price of Tesla's Model S battery packs.
I definitely do think that analysts will be trying to figure out this market from their counterparts and pricing in Tesla's potential there. However, it is a very nascent market with a lot of uncertainty, so different analysts could come up with very different assumptions. Curious to see. But clearly, they need Tesla to help them out with some specific stats this week.
I am Bullish on this ER. I had a pretty convincing Bear case that I was working on that I was ready to trade on but I have now flipped. The Bear case has to do with the fact that I do not think they will make 55k this year. I think that EM makes the corporate stretch goals public, instead of having public sandbagged goals and privately pushing for a beat like most companies. I think he just has one "set of books" and we see the struggle his employees have of making the goal. I think they may guide down in increments for a soft landing later this year. BUT, they have zero reason to guide down for the Q1 ER. Even if they think, "maybe its 52k" it is way too early to throw in the towel and guide. Since we already know the number delivered, there is little risk on deliveries for Q1.
There are unknowns on the EPS and such. But it's a coin flip if it will be good.
Here are the things that make me bullish.
1) I think the car info will (irrationally) take a backseat to stationary storage plans. I think Elon will make hyperbolic statements about the market size ("$6T industry, if we get 0.5% of that...") That sort of napkin math stuff. People will want to know about capacity, partners, projections etc. There will be relatively gobs of stuff that will generate interest and articles from that. Truly, it will feel like "cars, they make cars too?". Indeed given an unlimited battery supply it is way easier to scale the storage business. Assuming they make a decent margin on the storage products, it guarantees the output of the GF will be financially sound, and that they can be making money on two different, non-competing businesses. I will be curious what their battery supply is, and how big it is. They are probably not battery constrained on cars anymore. (I know these are supposed to be different cells). But they probably ARE constrained now in total or will be soon. So supply constrained? I want to know about this. Relatively little of the battery biz value is priced in now. ANY concrete news and derisking stands to add value.
2) The stock price will go up because it is going up. Unlike the last few ER there is a tailwind. There is buzz. There is interest. Like many people have said, I have had people approach me to ask about the batteries. a $3k product is within reach of a LOT of people who would tune out the car buzz because they just can't afford them. Analysts are interested. The PRESS is interested because it is an innovative product, a GOOD STORY. Sometimes the market reaction feels like a forgone conclusion, and I think this is one of those times.
Bear case:
1) They guide down for 2015: I think that even if they wanted to it's too early.
2) They guide down for Q2: Yikes! that would be bad. That would be awful late to have suddenly spawned a demand problem. Maybe even worse would be some factory bottleneck. Down for Q2 means they are either royally screwing up production or have demand issues, I can't decide which is worse.
3) Their earnings suck: meh. only bears care about this and they won't have the quietude to get that message heard. TM has very public plans to spend a lot of money growing now. In this particular moment it is relatively apparent investors are getting their money's worth. Who knows what other things they are working on???? Other quarters that will loom larger as a story.
4) They use the chance to imbed some other bad news item. Weakness in car demand, so they are using "levers". Starting some advertising. That is probably the worst real possibility I see and I see a tactical reason to talk about it now when they have something good to discuss as well. That would probably cause a big reaction down, but even then I can argue it would be neutral if they put their cards on the table and say: "we hoped to grow 50% this year, we think its coming in 40%. So we feel we can easily close the gap to stay production constrained and here is our plan to get there". It would take away a favorite Bear argument, that there is hidden softness. By shining light on it and making a plan it would be an enormous relief to me to now know the deal. The "other shoe" will have dropped and we can quit talking hypotheticals.
There are unknowns on the EPS and such. But it's a coin flip if it will be good.
Here are the things that make me bullish.
1) I think the car info will (irrationally) take a backseat to stationary storage plans. I think Elon will make hyperbolic statements about the market size ("$6T industry, if we get 0.5% of that...") That sort of napkin math stuff. People will want to know about capacity, partners, projections etc. There will be relatively gobs of stuff that will generate interest and articles from that. Truly, it will feel like "cars, they make cars too?". Indeed given an unlimited battery supply it is way easier to scale the storage business. Assuming they make a decent margin on the storage products, it guarantees the output of the GF will be financially sound, and that they can be making money on two different, non-competing businesses. I will be curious what their battery supply is, and how big it is. They are probably not battery constrained on cars anymore. (I know these are supposed to be different cells). But they probably ARE constrained now in total or will be soon. So supply constrained? I want to know about this. Relatively little of the battery biz value is priced in now. ANY concrete news and derisking stands to add value.
2) The stock price will go up because it is going up. Unlike the last few ER there is a tailwind. There is buzz. There is interest. Like many people have said, I have had people approach me to ask about the batteries. a $3k product is within reach of a LOT of people who would tune out the car buzz because they just can't afford them. Analysts are interested. The PRESS is interested because it is an innovative product, a GOOD STORY. Sometimes the market reaction feels like a forgone conclusion, and I think this is one of those times.
Bear case:
1) They guide down for 2015: I think that even if they wanted to it's too early.
2) They guide down for Q2: Yikes! that would be bad. That would be awful late to have suddenly spawned a demand problem. Maybe even worse would be some factory bottleneck. Down for Q2 means they are either royally screwing up production or have demand issues, I can't decide which is worse.
3) Their earnings suck: meh. only bears care about this and they won't have the quietude to get that message heard. TM has very public plans to spend a lot of money growing now. In this particular moment it is relatively apparent investors are getting their money's worth. Who knows what other things they are working on???? Other quarters that will loom larger as a story.
4) They use the chance to imbed some other bad news item. Weakness in car demand, so they are using "levers". Starting some advertising. That is probably the worst real possibility I see and I see a tactical reason to talk about it now when they have something good to discuss as well. That would probably cause a big reaction down, but even then I can argue it would be neutral if they put their cards on the table and say: "we hoped to grow 50% this year, we think its coming in 40%. So we feel we can easily close the gap to stay production constrained and here is our plan to get there". It would take away a favorite Bear argument, that there is hidden softness. By shining light on it and making a plan it would be an enormous relief to me to now know the deal. The "other shoe" will have dropped and we can quit talking hypotheticals.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Good to see you here.
Today was a classic example of a tug-of-war battle. Pre-market highs were at $241, day ows being $229s, the weaker Bulls have bailed, while weaker bears have also done the same; new money is entering and we are now in the positives. Some investors are sidelined, believing that we will revisit low $200s while others believe we will break all time highs. Gotta love it. Still proud to say 95% long with 5% sidelined. I will be happy in either direction, all I know is that I won't be missing this train when it takes off.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
There are lots of employee incentives based on a 25% gross margin. I'd be surprised if the stationary storage side of the house was priced much below that figure.
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