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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think Elon's read on the oil scenario is probably more or less correct.
People buying a luxury car like a Tesla generally aren't making the purchase to save money. Off the top of my head I can only think of Uber drivers and travelling business persons as people who could conceivably come out ahead by buying a Tesla and using it for work purposes. In contrast, buyers at the lower to middle end of the new vehicle market who are spending 15-30k on a car every few years, will typically not want to buy a limited range EV like a LEAF. The upfront cost is relatively high in relation to income for a middle class person, and the return in form of reduced operating costs will be long... and longer if gasoline is very inexpensive.
I am not worried about low gasoline prices. People buy a Tesla because it is an enjoyable product, and not just because it runs on electricity.
People buying a luxury car like a Tesla generally aren't making the purchase to save money. Off the top of my head I can only think of Uber drivers and travelling business persons as people who could conceivably come out ahead by buying a Tesla and using it for work purposes. In contrast, buyers at the lower to middle end of the new vehicle market who are spending 15-30k on a car every few years, will typically not want to buy a limited range EV like a LEAF. The upfront cost is relatively high in relation to income for a middle class person, and the return in form of reduced operating costs will be long... and longer if gasoline is very inexpensive.
I am not worried about low gasoline prices. People buy a Tesla because it is an enjoyable product, and not just because it runs on electricity.
There will be a day when people will choose EV even oil price is 0, otherwise EV won't be mainstream until we really run out of oil. The more EVs, the less gasoline demand, the cheaper oil is. The growth of EV will hit oil price hard and we can't count on high oil price to help EV, that's a lost cause by logic.
larmor
Active Member
Tesla seems to be ready to indicate Model 3 has an S and an X version in latest marketing materials potentially indicative of a double unveil in March. Which would make some sense (see outline images on slide behind Elon in Hong Kong):
Tesla Special Event in Hong Kong with Elon Musk - YouTube
Tesla Special Event in Hong Kong with Elon Musk - YouTube
No no no, lets not get ahead of ourselves here. This is how ultimately destructive rumors start.
The same slide also showed Model S and Model X in the same image even though the text below indicated they were launched years apart. Unfortunately an audience member's head is blocking the text below the Gen III image, which might have been significant.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes, see screenshot I took of the YouTube Video. Clearly there are TWO Model 3 cars under black covers. Notice the 2 Model 3 cars are positioned in the same way the MX and MS are positioned. Crossover in the Back and Sedan in the front.
i don't know if we will get a double reveal, but clearly Tesla is planning a crossover version of the Model 3. This has been discussed by tesla before. Pretty obvious tesla would have variant cars based on the Model 3 chassis platform
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Yep, I am nearly certain it is the same image in both frames, with the "Gen III images" just being a copy of S + X blacked out. This does not point to a double unveiling to me, and I agree it is harmful to set that expectation.
Once the Bolt became a real car Musk has been more directly teasing the CUV variant of the Model 3.
Perhaps this indicates that the Bolt fills a niche that the model 3 doesn't.
We know that there will be a sedan and a crossover version of the Model 3. This is public information.
The new public information is that Tesla is showing the two simultaneously in presentation materials.
To my knowledge this is also the first time they have put the Model S and Model X together in the Gen II spot on this style of presentation and the first time they have depicted two Model 3s.
I would also point out that it does make sense to do a double reveal because the relative spread of reservations of each version will provide the maximum information how to apportion production capacity, even if the sedan is launched prior to the crossover or vice versa. There is nothing to prevent Tesla doing a double unveil even if one is two years away and the other two and half or three years away.
Secondly, Tesla now knows how to design and build crossovers as well as sedans (obviously). It is also the case that Musk made and retracted a tweet reveal about a "Model Y" that would be a small crossover with falcon wing doors.
I am not sure how material this is one way or another so I would not think this is a rumor that one one must panic to quash, just information that Tesla is now depicting two cars in the Gen 3 spot on its materials.
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Musk in Hong Kong very diplomatically stated that Tesla would welcome GM or others coming to market with a compelling EV without identifying the Bolt as a compelling EV (which it obviously isn't).
The new public information is that Tesla is showing the two simultaneously in presentation materials.
To my knowledge this is also the first time they have put the Model S and Model X together in the Gen II spot on this style of presentation and the first time they have depicted two Model 3s.
I would also point out that it does make sense to do a double reveal because the relative spread of reservations of each version will provide the maximum information how to apportion production capacity, even if the sedan is launched prior to the crossover or vice versa. There is nothing to prevent Tesla doing a double unveil even if one is two years away and the other two and half or three years away.
Secondly, Tesla now knows how to design and build crossovers as well as sedans (obviously). It is also the case that Musk made and retracted a tweet reveal about a "Model Y" that would be a small crossover with falcon wing doors.
I am not sure how material this is one way or another so I would not think this is a rumor that one one must panic to quash, just information that Tesla is now depicting two cars in the Gen 3 spot on its materials.
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Musk in Hong Kong very diplomatically stated that Tesla would welcome GM or others coming to market with a compelling EV without identifying the Bolt as a compelling EV (which it obviously isn't).
larmor
Active Member
Do we know if model Y is a variant of model 3 (E) or may be next gen roadster aka tesla supercar...
just pure speculation...
just pure speculation...
You're incorrect. Here's a screenshot from a presentation JB gave nearly two years ago. Same style of "roadmap" slide. Model X and S appear together, and the Gen III placeholder indicates "Gen III Sedan and Crossover." It is literally the same information being conveyed in Elon's presentation, which you posted. Just with less polished graphics.
I know I have seen presentation materials previously that have referenced Gen III being a sedan and CUV-type vehicle. I can attempt to find them later if necessary. I think they can use data from the marketplace and S+X to determine production requirements, though a simultaneous reveal would of course be more precise. Don't get me wrong, I would be pleased if they revealed both simultaneously because I think it would be an unexpected surprise that would boost the stock, and it would mean they expect to be able to scale both within a reasonably short period of time, but to begin to expect that based on this slide is unrealistic.
EDIT: dha beat me to it
Yes to all. Tesla talked about Model Y all the time and put it in the 3rd gen. Yet, I fully expect that the reveal to show both. It would be pretty weird if they didn't. They will want to show maximum possible demand to financiers and GF partners like Panasonic. Give me one good reason why they would only show one?
flankspeed8
Member
I'm sorry but I find this to be a dismissive and arrogant statement. Compelling according to who? You? Let's let the market be the judge of that. While it certainly will not be the most appealing EV I have no doubt that GM will be able to move as many as they are able to the first year or two. The Leaf has good sales and the Bolt will be better spec'd so why do you think that people will not consider the Bolt to be a compelling entry BEV for them?
It will be significantly easier to ramp production of a single model and later introduce a variant than it will be to simultaneously ramp two new models. If the CUV variant is more than a year after the sedan, why unveil both and set the expectation of them shipping at the same time (even if it is clearly stated otherwise)? It would also impact the demand for the sedan, though that is probably not important.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Unveiling both would allow them to judge demand, and perhaps build CUV first.
I'd appreciate it if you would tone that down. I said "to my knowledge". I, like many others, use words like this to carefully delineate information that may have gaps in it, from what I know to be true. For example I stated that it is public information that Tesla announced plans to make a sedan and crossover version of the Model 3 with no such caveat for margin of error because this is information I know to be true. Thank you for researching a picture of the S and the X in the Gen II spot. My knowledge of this detail is now updated.
You said that that Tesla indicating Gen III Crossover and Sedan simultaneously in a presentation is "new public information." That is incorrect. I really don't see this as an incendiary comment...just a sober factual assessment.
Maybe Tesla will do a double reveal. I'm in the camp that believes it doesn't make business sense at this time. But regardless, to cite this slide as evidence for a double reveal is illogical in my opinion.
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