Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[chickensevil]

He didn't say annual, he said total cumulative, I.e. Teslas ever produced. The number sounds right to me.

To ensure others are understanding what is being said, he is saying that by the end of 2014 the total produced cars up to that point was ~50k. In 2015 they produced ~50k. Therefore their new total cumulative production is now at ~100k. That is a doubling of production.

Now the question is, if this wasn't really an important metric prior to 2015 (since they actually did more than double) then why bring it up now? Is this Elon trying to make a flashy metric? Or is this possibly a glimpse into 2016 guidance? Consider the below:

2012: 2650
2013: 22477 (25127)
2014: 31655 (56782)
2015: 50366 (107148)

Note that we didn't technically double. Even if you exclude 2012, we were short around 3k units to double. But whatever, what I am wondering is if this is a hint at early 2016 guidance? Given his use of round numbers that were clearly not round... are we going to see them suggest a 100k delivery for 2016 guidance? I think this would blow out everyone's expectations for guidance and might be quite a positive surprise.

Of course even if they say 100k, at this point I don't know how serious the market will take it, given their track record for actually meeting their initial goals isn't so great...

 

[AlMc]

To ensure others are understanding what is being said, he is saying that by the end of 2014 the total produced cars up to that point was ~50k. In 2015 they produced ~50k. Therefore their new total cumulative production is now at ~100k. That is a doubling of production.

Now the question is, if this wasn't really an important metric prior to 2015 (since they actually did more than double) then why bring it up now? Is this Elon trying to make a flashy metric? Or is this possibly a glimpse into 2016 guidance? Consider the below:

2012: 2650
2013: 22477 (25127)
2014: 31655 (56782)
2015: 50366 (107148)

Note that we didn't technically double. Even if you exclude 2012, we were short around 3k units to double. But whatever, what I am wondering is if this is a hint at early 2016 guidance? Given his use of round numbers that were clearly not round... are we going to see them suggest a 100k delivery for 2016 guidance? I think this would blow out everyone's expectations for guidance and might be quite a positive surprise.

Of course even if they say 100k, at this point I don't know how serious the market will take it, given their track record for actually meeting their initial goals isn't so great...

This is the problem; The market has grown deaf ears to guidance because of so many things EM has said, while coming true, do not do so on the guidance schedule(s) he gives. To get the short squeeze everyone desires we need to consistently meet, and probably, *beat* guidance. The short squeeze(s) of the past occurred when the market was surprised by TM/EM achievements.

 

[chickensevil]

This is the problem; The market has grown deaf ears to guidance because of so many things EM has said, while coming true, do not do so on the guidance schedule(s) he gives. To get the short squeeze everyone desires we need to consistently meet, and probably, *beat* guidance. The short squeeze(s) of the past occurred when the market was surprised by TM/EM achievements.

In fairness it was telegraphed that they would be EPS positive before it happened... No one believed them. So maybe at this point, because no one believes anything they say, just meeting original guidance and timelines for things would be enough to put us back on track. Because you better believe if they had actually delivered 55k in 2015 that would have shot the stock up. And if they really do post a positive EPS again, I know that will help things, because at this point the market is pretty "meh" as it relates to the future outlook of the company. At least that is my impression.

 

[adiggs]

Some news we all knew would happen...just nice to see it is happening. Thanks to another TMC member for sharing the link with me.

http://learnbonds.com/126291/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-model-s-dominates-premium-car-market/

The chart in that link of premium sedan sales in the US, is what I'm looking forward to happening in the luxury SUV segment next. Maybe not in '16 with the first year of production of Model X, but soon. And then again when with Model 3 as we get down into the 35-60k market. I'm thinking this is why we're suddenly seeing so many EV announcements from other car makers - 1 model up 43% and EVERYBODY else off 5 to 16%. With the overall market flat from 2014, it looks like Model S is taking market share from everybody pretty aggressively.

 

[AlMc]

In fairness it was telegraphed that they would be EPS positive before it happened... No one believed them. So maybe at this point, because no one believes anything they say, just meeting original guidance and timelines for things would be enough to put us back on track. Because you better believe if they had actually delivered 55k in 2015 that would have shot the stock up. And if they really do post a positive EPS again, I know that will help things, because at this point the market is pretty "meh" as it relates to the future outlook of the company. At least that is my impression.

Exactly. When the market did not believe them and they met, or exceeded, guidance then we have the TSLA pop (possible short squeeze). So, when EM gives guidance on the Q4ER/CC unless there is something the market totally missed we may not see much positive movement in TSLA. Moving forward from the CC. *IF* we start meeting guidance/exceeding it then we will see some real positive movement in TSLA.

While we have seen some ups, we have also seen downs in TSLA giving us overall a stock price now where it was 2 years ago.

It will be interesting to see how this market (macro driven down) will react to the Apple and Facebook ERs this week. May give us some sense of market mood heading into the TM ER/CC.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Did anybody hear about some long term issues of roof top aluminum structure close to the FWDs?

 

[AudubonB]

Well, not until you posted. Is there something about FWDs and aluminum? About FWDs and the structure's shape? Your having made that post does itself self-referentially answer your own question: everyone who reads it now has heard of it, in a frustratingly, internet-specific way. So it behooves you to post what it is you have heard, if you please.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Well, not until you posted. Is there something about FWDs and aluminum? About FWDs and the structure's shape? Your having made that post does itself self-referentially answer your own question: everyone who reads it now has heard of it, in a frustratingly, internet-specific way. So it behooves you to post what it is you have heard, if you please.

I read that TM had some long term durability issues with the aluminum structure carrying the heavy FWDs. Aluminum reacts different to long term dynamic stress compared to other metals e.g. steel. I read this was one of the issues why the X was delivered later than originally scheduled and one of the reasons the first couple of X needed manual rework, e.g. reinforcement of FWD hinges.

I would like to know if someone here knows more about this topic.
Would be great to know for short term SP movements if these issues are resolved or persist.
Thanks for any help.

BTW TM filed a law suit against the supplier of the faulty hydraulic FWDs, it was a automotive supplier in Bavaria in Germany.

BTW sorry again for my bad English, it's not my mother tongue.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Did anybody hear about some long term issues of roof top aluminum structure close to the FWDs?

Well, not until you posted. Is there something about FWDs and aluminum? About FWDs and the structure's shape? Your having made that post does itself self-referentially answer your own question: everyone who reads it now has heard of it, in a frustratingly, internet-specific way. So it behooves you to post what it is you have heard, if you please.

I doubt this is an issue at all. It's public knowledge that Model X does not use aluminium alloy in some areas of the roof structure: http://www.automobilemag.com/reviews/driven/2016-tesla-model-x-p90d-review/

let’s not forget the unique “falcon” doors that are hung from a magnesium spine integrated into the underside of the roof.

 

[dreamingof3]

IMO-there is a complete disconnect between what the company is achieving and the stock price. Record deliveries, amazing growth, amazing new products and convenience features. Yet- the stock continues its downward trajectory making no strides in the past two years. The new norm is for Tesla to go down. If the 4q earnings report is even remotely less than stellar the shares will be punished again. Perma-pessimism?

 

[Causalien]

IMO-there is a complete disconnect between what the company is achieving and the stock price. Record deliveries, amazing growth, amazing new products and convenience features. Yet- the stock continues its downward trajectory making no strides in the past two years. The new norm is for Tesla to go down. If the 4q earnings report is even remotely less than stellar the shares will be punished again. Perma-pessimism?

Not much made any strides in the past 2 years in this correlated market. The only thing that did is Cash and real estate... Which says something.

 

[FredTMC]

Exactly. When the market did not believe them and they met, or exceeded, guidance then we have the TSLA pop (possible short squeeze). So, when EM gives guidance on the Q4ER/CC unless there is something the market totally missed we may not see much positive movement in TSLA. Moving forward from the CC. *IF* we start meeting guidance/exceeding it then we will see some real positive movement in TSLA.

While we have seen some ups, we have also seen downs in TSLA giving us overall a stock price now where it was 2 years ago.

It will be interesting to see how this market (macro driven down) will react to the Apple and Facebook ERs this week. May give us some sense of market mood heading into the TM ER/CC.

Yep. And hopefully macros stabilize this week and coming weeks.

I think Elon learned his lesson with MX Design challenges and as a result Tesla will give guidance that is achievable this year

Fortunately, Elon has motivation to see TSLA rise this year. They'll likely want to raise capital to accelerate some developments.

Remember Elon said before on ER he expects TSLAs market cap to be larger than Apple's. I don't think he'd say that unless he believed it.

Lastly, for Q4 call:

- I expect positive EPS. I don't think street is expecting much (~$0.18) so beating the street would be great. Jesselivenomore calculation was $0.31

- Positive FCF. Tesla said last EC they were moving this from Q4'15 to Q1'16. So they need to reaffirm this on call. My view is they need to demonstrate this in Q1'16.

- Q1'16 guidance. I have no idea what street is expecting for Q1'16. Clearly tesla is shooting for >75k deliveries overall for 2016

 

[Buddyroe]

Something VERY strange is going on with the supercharger network in the U.S. Well, maybe. I believe one of 2 things is going on. The first is that Tesla is trying to post some good numbers this qrtr (16Q1) so they have slowed the build-out. The other is that they are about to announce a major partnership or some other kind of change to the network. Tesla has only started construction on one supercharger in the U.S. in 2016.

Either way, there is SOMETHING going on. And this has massive short term implications.

My first choice is a major partnership with another car manufacturer to use Tesla drive trains and thus the supercharger network (and then sharing in the cost of the supercharger build-out). My next choice would be that they are announcing a partnership with a major gas station brand or fast food brand to install 2 to 4 supercharger stalls at hundreds - if not thousands of locations across America (in a pay-to-use strategy using private labeled chargers). And even better would be if they announced BOTH. But, if it is just the private labeled pay-to-use chargers, that has the potential to draw a major manufacturer to use Tesla technology since there will be greatly dispersed chargers all over America.

I have a hard time believing that Tesla has slowed the build out to save money. As Musk pointed out, the supercharger build-out is such a small part of the CAPEX spending. It would hurt more than help at this point.

Fingers crossed for something incredibly good!

 

[Bgarret]

Something VERY strange is going on with the supercharger network in the U.S. Well, maybe. I believe one of 2 things is going on. The first is that Tesla is trying to post some good numbers this qrtr (16Q1) so they have slowed the build-out. The other is that they are about to announce a major partnership or some other kind of change to the network. Tesla has only started construction on one supercharger in the U.S. in 2016.

Either way, there is SOMETHING going on. And this has massive short term implications.

My first choice is a major partnership with another car manufacturer to use Tesla drive trains and thus the supercharger network (and then sharing in the cost of the supercharger build-out). My next choice would be that they are announcing a partnership with a major gas station brand or fast food brand to install 2 to 4 supercharger stalls at hundreds - if not thousands of locations across America (in a pay-to-use strategy using private labeled chargers). And even better would be if they announced BOTH. But, if it is just the private labeled pay-to-use chargers, that has the potential to draw a major manufacturer to use Tesla technology since there will be greatly dispersed chargers all over America.

I have a hard time believing that Tesla has slowed the build out to save money. As Musk pointed out, the supercharger build-out is such a small part of the CAPEX spending. It would hurt more than help at this point.

Fingers crossed for something incredibly good!

Is the 1 number globally? Internet said they built 18 last January for comparison.

 

[Gerasimental]

Buddyroe, I've been thinking this too although I was leaning more to the explanation that it was about FCF.
Also it's not only the US. Globally 8 new SpC open this year. If it's a big partnership or something similar, I'd only expect to hear about it at M3 reveal, not before.

 

[Buddyroe]

Is the 1 number globally? Internet said they built 18 last January for comparison.

In the U.S. ("Tesla has only started construction on one supercharger in the U.S. in 2016.")

This is actually what makes me think the partnership could be related to the U.S. only - for example a partnership with a company like Pilot or Sheetz or similar to install thousands of pay-to-use superchargers across the U.S. Just my gut feeling, that's all.

 

[Fallenone]

I think it's the first reason, they are saving every penny for a GAAP FCF positive Q1 2016.

Something VERY strange is going on with the supercharger network in the U.S. Well, maybe. I believe one of 2 things is going on. The first is that Tesla is trying to post some good numbers this qrtr (16Q1) so they have slowed the build-out. The other is that they are about to announce a major partnership or some other kind of change to the network. Tesla has only started construction on one supercharger in the U.S. in 2016.

Either way, there is SOMETHING going on. And this has massive short term implications.

My first choice is a major partnership with another car manufacturer to use Tesla drive trains and thus the supercharger network (and then sharing in the cost of the supercharger build-out). My next choice would be that they are announcing a partnership with a major gas station brand or fast food brand to install 2 to 4 supercharger stalls at hundreds - if not thousands of locations across America (in a pay-to-use strategy using private labeled chargers). And even better would be if they announced BOTH. But, if it is just the private labeled pay-to-use chargers, that has the potential to draw a major manufacturer to use Tesla technology since there will be greatly dispersed chargers all over America.

I have a hard time believing that Tesla has slowed the build out to save money. As Musk pointed out, the supercharger build-out is such a small part of the CAPEX spending. It would hurt more than help at this point.

Fingers crossed for something incredibly good!

 

[dreamingof3]

JP Morgan back to drinking their hateraide. They say 2016 December price target 180 and no way Tesla beats 4q2015 due to slow X ramp and deliveries. I might just jump if we are at 180 in December 2016

 

[SBenson]

Electric car industry to 'suffer' from cheap oil, Elon Musk says - Jan. 25, 2016

Heads up, the text has a bit more text than the video.

 

[FredTMC]

Electric car industry to 'suffer' from cheap oil, Elon Musk says - Jan. 25, 2016

Heads up, the text has a bit more text than the video.

Thx for posting. Good article and interview.

Bottom line is that Tesla is much more immune to cheap gas prices than low price entry level EVs