Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Feb 10 set for Q4 results: Tesla Announces Release Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Financial Results - NASDAQ.com
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I find your statement to be a great deal more arrogant than mine given the company you are in, in addition to completely ridiculous. The Bolt like the Leaf is a basic EV conversions based on cheap ICE vehicle platform and priced double the ICE version without adding any distinct advantage and while subtracting the ability to travel with meaningful practicality outside a small radius. If you cannot guess how Musk imagines that compares to a high performance fully highway capable Third Generation Tesla then you should probably take a rain check until you have seen it for yourself.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Most definitely. I've been saying for a long time that crossovers are a different market than sport sedans, but certain people in the bear camp continue to insist that the Bolt, which is a small CUV (like the Mazda CX-3 and Honda HR-V) competes with the Model 3, which is most likely a small sport sedan (in its initial form).
CUVs can easily carry bulky boxy stuff. Sedans by their very shape generally have a much harder time because of the rear slope. A Honda Fit can easily swallow cargo that will not fit in a Honda Civic, even though the Civic is a larger and heavier car.
A double reveal would be a nice bonus, but I am not betting for or against a reveal of both form factors. I do not believe there is enough public information to know for certain either way.
I have to disagree with you somewhat.
The Chevy Trax, which appears to share the same basic platform family as the Bolt, has a 0-60 time of somewhere around 9 to 10 seconds, while the Bolt itself is spec'd to make the same run in about 7 seconds. That's noticeable. The Bolt will also have a lower center of gravity and better weight distribution. Dynamically it will likely have better characteristics than its ICE counterpart.
For some people the Bolt may very well be appealing as a designated commuter car. Yes, it basically has an expected radius of 100 miles, but that's a hell of a lot better than 40-60 miles in a LEAF. It does give some people a decent safety buffer on top of commuting capacity. No, it will not compete with Model 3, but that doesn't mean it isn't compelling.
That's actually not true. CUV variant has been known for at least a year (to us at least) via JB Straubel presentations and other JB and Elon interviews.
GM has said explicitly that the Bolt does not share the Trax platform, and has few common parts. It was likely designed to fit on the Trax assembly line.
I think one piece of guessing at Bolt sales would be to also guess when the M3 would be generally available. I would define "generally available" as when my sister can test drive an M3 at get one several months later. Will that happen this decade?
The Bolt likely has years of "competing" with a M3 that most people can't get. So in that sense, yeah, the Bolt doesn't compete with the M3.
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It became real when GM said it would be produced at the end of 2016 and let people drive a pre-production car.
I think one piece of guessing at Bolt sales would be to also guess when the M3 would be generally available. I would define "generally available" as when my sister can test drive an M3 at get one several months later. Will that happen this decade?
The Bolt likely has years of "competing" with a M3 that most people can't get. So in that sense, yeah, the Bolt doesn't compete with the M3.
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It became real when GM said it would be produced at the end of 2016 and let people drive a pre-production car.
Compelling is an incredibly subjective term. You can't compare a Bolt to a Model 3 (regardless of unveil or not). It's common knowledge that the Model 3 is a 3 series form factor competitor. I place the Bolt as a competitor with the i3 with more range or next generation leaf.
For us the integration of technology that Tesla has is unparalleled and is where the real competitive advantage lies. Based on the initial Bolt video impressions I've seen. I think GM is taking it semi seriously, but in no way can it be argued that the Bolt is sporty. It's a commuter hatch and slightly upgraded form of transportIon.
IMO it is not compelling when placed next to similarly priced GAS competitors. The framing EV vs EV DOES NOT work because we need to make the car compelling as a vehicle not an EV. My hopes is that Model 3 will be compelling versus class rivals just like the S and X are.
For us the integration of technology that Tesla has is unparalleled and is where the real competitive advantage lies. Based on the initial Bolt video impressions I've seen. I think GM is taking it semi seriously, but in no way can it be argued that the Bolt is sporty. It's a commuter hatch and slightly upgraded form of transportIon.
IMO it is not compelling when placed next to similarly priced GAS competitors. The framing EV vs EV DOES NOT work because we need to make the car compelling as a vehicle not an EV. My hopes is that Model 3 will be compelling versus class rivals just like the S and X are.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
It doesn't share the current generation Trax platform, but it is a GM global platform designed for ICE vehicles too.
G2SC is the platform code, also for next generation Chevy Sonic.
Current Trax uses Gamma II.
Compelling, translation: Strong value for money.
$37,500 for a GM Bolt (or even $30K after $7.5K IRC 30-D US Federal Tax Rebate) for a small low-powered city car competing in a market of $15-$17K ICE options with significantly greater utility.
Not compelling.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
From a purely financial standpoint, no, but cars are about more than money.
A car can be compelling in different ways. If it were all about economics Acura and Lexus would have killed BMW and Mercedes Benz in the luxury market 20 years ago.
Compelling is a very subjective term. One person finds bear arguments for shorting TSLA while another finds bull arguments for TSLA compelling. Those individuals don't find the other's arguments compelling.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The Bolt is not a CUV. It does not have the ground clearance nor the commanding view of the road that people love so much about utility vehicles.
The Bolt is a front wheel drive subcompact hatchback that,because of the packaging efficiencies of electric powertrains has just enough interior volume to be considered mid-size. It will compete directly with the Honda Fit class but carry a ~$17K premium because it is electric. No access to a nationwide fast charging network.
The Model 3, if we believe Elon, is a compact rear wheel drive or all wheel drive liftback sedan that,because of packaging efficiencies of electric powertrains will have just enough interior volume to be rated a full size sedan. It will not have a price premium over comparable BMW 3 Series,C Class, A4 etc. It will have access to a nationwide fast charging network.
Bolt does not equal compelling. Model 3 equals compelling.
The Bolt is a front wheel drive subcompact hatchback that,because of the packaging efficiencies of electric powertrains has just enough interior volume to be considered mid-size. It will compete directly with the Honda Fit class but carry a ~$17K premium because it is electric. No access to a nationwide fast charging network.
The Model 3, if we believe Elon, is a compact rear wheel drive or all wheel drive liftback sedan that,because of packaging efficiencies of electric powertrains will have just enough interior volume to be rated a full size sedan. It will not have a price premium over comparable BMW 3 Series,C Class, A4 etc. It will have access to a nationwide fast charging network.
Bolt does not equal compelling. Model 3 equals compelling.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Realistically, hardly anyone is taking a subcompact CUV where extra ground clearance is needed. Even compact CUVs are getting lower and lower. The Honda CR-V has gotten shorter to meet fuel efficiency goals.
Chevy Bolt's dimensions, in inches, are 164 (L) x 69.5 (W) x 62.8 (H) http://media.chevrolet.com/media/us.../Jan/naias/chevy/0111-bolt-du.html#dimensions
Honda HR-V's dimensions, in inches, are 169.1 (L) x 69.8 (W) x 63.2 (H) http://automobiles.honda.com/hr-v/specifications.aspx
The HR-V may be slightly jacked up, but neither of these cars is going to have a commanding view of the road. The headroom in both cars is similar: 39.5 (no moonroof option) in the HR-V, 39.7 for the Bolt.
I find nothing compelling about a Prius, but Toyota has sold millions of them. People found them compelling. I think it is all too easy to dismiss something as not compelling generally.
Regardless, I don't see the Bolt having much impact on TSLA. These cars (Bolt and Model 3) are just too different.
dc_h
Active Member
Compelling is subjective. There are objective attributes, but taste can't be accounted for.
Malcolm Gladwell is good listening on the subject.
Interesting discussion on model 3 sedan/cuv. Dual release would be a catalyst for the stock, in my opinion.
Malcolm Gladwell: Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce | TED Talk Subtitles and Transcript | TED.com
Malcolm Gladwell is good listening on the subject.
Interesting discussion on model 3 sedan/cuv. Dual release would be a catalyst for the stock, in my opinion.
Malcolm Gladwell: Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce | TED Talk Subtitles and Transcript | TED.com
dhrivnak
Active Member
What I do not understand is how Tesla will service the Model 3. I have 3 Chevy dealers who are ready, willing and able to service a Volt and I assume a Bolt ,within 25 miles. But the nearest Tesla service center is 250 miles away. When Tesla had a Ranger program or picked your car up that worked well. But now I hear I have to arrange a tow to get my car to a service center at a cost of $725 each way. Throw in taxes and we are talking $1500 for a service call. I do not see that working for a mass market car. Yes Tesla is building out but GM has them beat on the number of service centers about 100 to one.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Mitch said:
Thanks! I guess I need to read the studies.
But you still seem to be missing the point that it's a knowm fact that Peaker Plants have a higher cost per kWh than Load Following Plants, so it is safe to conclude that in TX the capital cost threshold for Peaker Plants is higher than $350/kWh and higher in California than $842/kWh.
This webinar has some interesting information by Mateo Jarmillo, a VP at Tesla Energy (starts about 35:00) and particularly by Susan Kennedy CEO of ASM (starts about 47:00) on the ancillary benefits of grid storage. Until I read the studies I can't be 100% sure, but the combination of the benefits she lists, combined with the fact that you continue to overlook the higher costs per kWh for Peaker Plants is that I would be shocked if Tesla Powerpacks are not a cheaper solution in many parts of the U.S.:
Ok, I just looked at the abstract (excerpt below):
EPRI - Abstract
I still need to read the report, but so far I haven't seen anything to indicate that Mr. Naam's digest, based on his calculations of the LCOE is not correct.
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That's a concern of mine, as well. Has anyone here done research on the average time from when a service center 'coming soon' appears on the Tesla site to when the center is up and running? My feeling is there has been a wide range. We should be able to get some idea of when to expect a few dozen more centers to pop up if Tesla is serious about significant numbers of Model 3 by early 2018. Early 2017? One thing's for sure: the current list ain't gonna cut it.
If after the March presentation, reservations for the Model 3 swiftly accumulate in the large numbers I anticipate, I'd expect that Wall Street investment banks will be piling on top of each other to supply the funds needed to allow Tesla Motors to expand far more rapidly in all phases, including service centers.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'm not terribly concerned with Tesla's ability to scale out their service centers. They'll do it.
I realize they are many folks live far away from their nearest service center but this problem will decline overtime.
i would not rule out the possibility that TM partners with....God forbid...an ICE manufacturer to service a more mass market midel3. They will not be able to build SCs fast enough to service hundreds of thousands of 3s by 2020.
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