It is clear that there have been 4+ weeks of that level of production, i.e. at least the whole of June, as almost half of the whole quarter's production occurred in the last 4 weeks. This is very strong evidence that production problems are finally over.
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It is clear that there have been 4+ weeks of that level of production, i.e. at least the whole of June, as almost half of the whole quarter's production occurred in the last 4 weeks. This is very strong evidence that production problems are finally over.
VanE
Member
The problem is that it's hard to predict if they will hit their long-term goals if they can't even hit the goals of this quarter.
Why would I as a market analyst believe after today that they will produce 500k cars in 2018?
Unfortunately, the production number is a miss, as 20,000 production was the forecast. However, the consistent 2,000/week production for at least 4 weeks is a definite win.I'm not sure how the market will react but I see two small wins, one win and one loss:
The market might not be able to figure this out, but Tesla's problem has been producing cars, not delivering cars.
Sure, you can figure this out from reading the statement. But why don't they just write, 'for the month of June' or something like that. 'Exiting the quarter' implies a shorter time frame than the entire month of June. At least looking at their previous delivery statements, that would seem to be the case.
I definitely agree with that - this was the big goal that everybody has been waiting for and they could have made it a lot more obvious.
Ok another three more months of waiting now.
ER numbers Will look terrible. Cashflows, earnings and everything.
Exit run rate means nothing. Last two quarters it meant nothing. Q3 guidance will not be trusted with these consistent misses.
There's not much to look forward to for next several months.
So be it, I can live with it. Just saying things like it is.
ER numbers Will look terrible. Cashflows, earnings and everything.
Exit run rate means nothing. Last two quarters it meant nothing. Q3 guidance will not be trusted with these consistent misses.
There's not much to look forward to for next several months.
So be it, I can live with it. Just saying things like it is.
Didn't they exit q1 @ 1700 / wk? If they ramped to 2k only in the last 4 weeks, then did they shut down production for 2 weeks in the quarter? 14k+ delivered is a HUGE miss! Especially since there were 1000 carried over from q1!
The only rationale I can think of for the lower numbers is the model s refresh. Did they have to retool for that?
The only rationale I can think of for the lower numbers is the model s refresh. Did they have to retool for that?
While I agree that things generally look terrible, this exit run rate is a lot more convincing than before, as it has seemingly been uninterrupted for at least 4 weeks. In combination with Elon's comments during the Q1 earnings report about the first flawless X just a few days before, I think it is now unambiguous that the ramp issues have been fully resolved. However, I am sure you are right that most people will take this as completely bad news.
I think there were some issues for a couple of weeks with the refresh. They also shut down X production for a while, I think at least in part because of the back seat recall, and only finally succeeded in consistently ramping it soon after achieving the first flawless X off the line, just before Q1 earnings.
So then the short-term strategy question? Sell some and then buy back in or dollar-cost avg down?
I suspect the trim and buy-back idea is too risky to time, but I really don't have enough dry powder to dollar cost average either. I guess I have to get a second job to get more ammo now.
I suspect the trim and buy-back idea is too risky to time, but I really don't have enough dry powder to dollar cost average either. I guess I have to get a second job to get more ammo now.
I prefer steak to sizzle too, but with 5000 in transit that means that this month's deliveries are going to be pretty close to last quarter's, which qualifies as steak to me. Actually I think there's a lot more steak than sizzle if you look long-term, but this is the short-term thread after all.
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So about the impact on how believable that 500k number is for 2018... I don't think it has any impact as 500k in 2 years is not priced in yet. Sure, if TSLA was at 400 today, we could take a big hit as people would start to question the 2018 goal... but, for better or worse no one truly believed it as evidenced by the current stock price. On the other hand, this means that there is a potential upside to actually reporting hundreds of thousands of Model 3 produced in 2018.
Two quarters of declining deliveries.
I speculated last year that the S/X could have a peak demand of 100,000 vehicles/year. The model 3 was always going to affect S/X demand, the unknown is how much.
I speculated last year that the S/X could have a peak demand of 100,000 vehicles/year. The model 3 was always going to affect S/X demand, the unknown is how much.
Q1 deliveries: 14820
Tesla Delivers 14,820 Vehicles in Q1 2016; On Track for Full-Year Delivery Guidance (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Q2 deliveries: 14370
Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)
I'm VERY surprised with the sequential drop in deliveries.
Tesla Delivers 14,820 Vehicles in Q1 2016; On Track for Full-Year Delivery Guidance (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Q2 deliveries: 14370
Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)
I'm VERY surprised with the sequential drop in deliveries.
dc_h
Active Member
I have concerns. The first is that guidance should be targeted for the mean estimate for the quarter, but Tesla results imply the target number was close to the second standard deviation from guidance. If guidance for the rest of the year is off by the same, we are looking at 40-45k. My other concern, not to feed the bears, but we had guidance that they started producing 2000 a week before June and that they were two weeks ahead of schedule. The 2000 run rate seems to be more of a sin wave, that a new baseline, at least for Q2. Will 2200 be a baseline or a peak. Sorry to vent, glad I closed some short term on Friday, but for those of us watching closely, this feels like misdirection. I didn't see any guidance during the quarter that they were only producing 1000-1100 cars a week, until June.
I hope we have turned a corner and 2000+ is the new baseline and 50,000 is realistic, but we are 2 quarters in a row missing and Q4 was made by clearing out the supply chain.
The last issue is if Elon's bold goals affect different parts of his organization differently. If the emphasis is on timelines in public, but excellence in private, I guess that is good in the long run, but it sure creates lumpy impression for investors.
I hope we have turned a corner and 2000+ is the new baseline and 50,000 is realistic, but we are 2 quarters in a row missing and Q4 was made by clearing out the supply chain.
The last issue is if Elon's bold goals affect different parts of his organization differently. If the emphasis is on timelines in public, but excellence in private, I guess that is good in the long run, but it sure creates lumpy impression for investors.
Nope, 2000 now, 2200 later:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
If I try hard to see something positive here, they filled the pipeline all the way now so Q3 delivery numbers will be a big beat...
mmd, your post cannot go unanswered because of the numerous inaccuracies. The video where the Tesla bumped the van that was extending partway into the lane was taken with autopilot OFF, but with cruise control on. With cruise control on, the cruise control was following the traffic ahead, which veered around the van. The cruise control's decision to brake was substantially delayed because of the ambiguity of whether the Tesla would avoid the van too. Now, if the autopilot lane-keeping feature was on, the autopilot would be required by rules to remain in the lane, it would have made the decision much earlier to brake for the van extending partway into the lane, and no contact would have occurred. Don't you see that with cruise control as the sole feature that is active, the Tesla will not work under the same rules as with the full autopilot ON?
Your point about autopilot disconnecting at the last minute to avoid legal claims is absurd. In the original Josh Brown video of a utility truck swinging into his lane, the Tesla quickly brought itself to the far side of the lane to begin the avoidance of the truck, but it is not allowed yet to exit the lane and so it disconnected and alerted the driver, who could exit the lane. Sounds like a reasonable response to me.
You also mention that drivers using autopilot are going to be unprepared to take over if the autopilot disconnects. This is only the case with drivers who abuse this safety feature and treat autopilot as if it is autonomous driving. The reason Tesla requires drivers to keep their hands on the wheel is because is because the driver is still required to be actively involved in the safety of the vehicle while the software is in its beta state. Autopilot allows the driver to be MORE aware of surroundings, if used properly, because the effort to stay in the lane and adjust speed is reduced. The driver with autopilot on has more time to concentrate on the important stuff. You cannot take examples of drivers who fail to maintain situational awareness with autopilot on and extrapolate to believe that these drivers are typical Tesla drivers, because they are not.
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