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Elon: "[Autopilot] is super good in heavy traffic. I wouldn't recommend it but you can read a book or do email, um, is what I found, umm, heard people say." LOL
We've had a number of hammers in the past week or so. Would that signal a testing of support and possible bull run forming?
I agree, don't buy high and sell low. I find it interesting how having a good understanding investor psychology (and that of our own) is crucial when investing, how to play off it and when to ignore it.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
That’s unfortunate, Scott. I suspect that you had set a stop loss limit in the 184-185 zone and the algobots snared you. That may have seemed prudent, but selling near a low often leads to regrets. It’s usually a good time to buy. I hope we eventually see you back here in a more optimistic mood.
The negative sentiment here is remarkable.
This is the biggest opportunity since 2013 when TSLA was trading in the 30s. Multiple important short-term (< 1 year) catalysts upcoming:
- Model X ramp
- Powerpack and Powerwall ramp
- Model 3 unveil
- positive FCF
Contrary to some who believe the stock will be suppressed until Model 3 deliveries start, that is not usually how stocks behave. Markets react well before actual events occur. As soon as Tesla shows evidence of one of the above catalysts, it will give analysts reason to increase price targets, which are always forward-looking.
And now that we have a big bounce back today, what the hell caused it? I will never understand the market. I've made a lot of money from it, but I will never understand it.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
It's a sign of _potential_ reversal. Confirmation tomorrow is key.
I found that TSLA doesn't pay too much attention to hammer, it doesn't know it's supposed to follow through
Gerardf
Active Member
I hope (and somewhat expect) that Elon will give us a fixed date for the Model-3 unveil during the ER.
I guess quite a few still do not trust that the Model-3 will be indeed unveiled in Q1. Having a formal date might move the SP up a bit.
I guess quite a few still do not trust that the Model-3 will be indeed unveiled in Q1. Having a formal date might move the SP up a bit.
I attribute the recovery to the broader markets stabilizing as oil has been stabilizing. There is plenty of desire to buy TSLA at these prices, but nobody wants to catch falling knives. Buyers finally figured out that if this isn't the bottom for TSLA, it's close enough, and they are returning. I wouldn't be surprised if Friday is a +$10.00 day if the broader markets are up, and nobody wants to miss that kind of action.
Edit:
I also believe that traders have figured out that TSLA's obligatory morning dip isn't the boogyman that many made it out to be, and they're figuring out how to buy in at the bottom of the dip to ride the stock back up. With more traders working the dips for profit, the dips won't be as deep, because any hesitation in the dip can become a buy signal that can mark the dip's bottom.
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He might, but that wouldn't be Tesla's M.O. More likely we'll see a mysterious invitation somewhere 1-3 weeks before the megaparty.
The recent emotion charged negativism found in these TMC investor threads (long-term & short-term threads), both from long-term shareholders who had been around here for a while, and from some briefly visiting short sellers spreading FUD, gave this all the appearance of an important bottom. The J.P. Morgan note on Monday referencing delivery numbers that Tesla published back on January 3, and subsequent excited coverage in Rupert Murdoch publications twisting that to headlines about disappointing sales, would have been a sign to pros to hold back for a few days and then take advantage of an upcoming price bottom.
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Chickenlittle
Banned
I don't believe anyone who has read your posts does that you hope that. Just the reverse
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Probably primarily a traunch of shorts escaping to cover. The predictable rally kicks off in February. Nearly there.
Note that Tesla is commencing the marketing for Model X at a Tesla event tomorrow.
sub
Active Member
Julian pointed out that Tesla sold a bunch of cars (2000?) in Q4 15 that had already been "paid for" by Tesla in the previous qtrs. this does make sense to me. However, I guess this would make the opposite true for Q1 16, Tesla is going to be refilling the pipeline and building a more than normal amount of cars that they won't see revenue from short term. This would decrease the odds of FCF positive in Q1. The unknown is the decrease in cash burn in Q4 15 and Q1 16.
once TSLA bounces back I think it would be entertaining to look back in this thread and pull some quotes. I'm all leaps right now in my cash acct, I may have to feed the pig a little extra but I'm not going anywhere. Do not sell out of fear, do not ignore the power that emotions have in the market, I think they could be more important than the fundamentals. We got a green day, go have a drink and relax.
once TSLA bounces back I think it would be entertaining to look back in this thread and pull some quotes. I'm all leaps right now in my cash acct, I may have to feed the pig a little extra but I'm not going anywhere. Do not sell out of fear, do not ignore the power that emotions have in the market, I think they could be more important than the fundamentals. We got a green day, go have a drink and relax.
Yes. I was surprised and disappointed to see that................
I believe to really have a break out from the 180s/190s something big ( Supercharger partner or Chinese partnership or early reveal of M3 with 'Y' variant) will be needed at the ER/CC. While anecdotal, the X ramp has been slow. If you spend time in the X forums here or on TM forum you can see this and some issues with early deliveries. TM will get this all fixed and I am sure once that is done we will have a nice ramp.
EM: We need steak (sizzle appreciated also) at the ER/CC
EDIT: At least Microsoft looks to have a strong ER
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The gating factor for cash flows is the exceptional event of paying down new production equipment and for new hires, particularly new hires in training for Model X production without Model X being produced. That was the Q3 / Q4 2015 issue that does not exist in Q1. The interesting thing is that it in Q4, exceptional cash outlay is coinciding with exceptional cash flows from Model S. Which one wins out, not sure, but it is going to be a tight race.
In Q1 they have money coming in from Model X, Model S and Tesla Energy and not much going out for Model X production equipment. Totally different picture.
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