Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dreamingof3]

Julian pointed out that Tesla sold a bunch of cars (2000?) in Q4 15 that had already been "paid for" by Tesla in the previous qtrs. this does make sense to me. However, I guess this would make the opposite true for Q1 16, Tesla is going to be refilling the pipeline and building a more than normal amount of cars that they won't see revenue from short term. This would decrease the odds of FCF positive in Q1. The unknown is the decrease in cash burn in Q4 15 and Q1 16.

once TSLA bounces back I think it would be entertaining to look back in this thread and pull some quotes. I'm all leaps right now in my cash acct, I may have to feed the pig a little extra but I'm not going anywhere. Do not sell out of fear, do not ignore the power that emotions have in the market, I think they could be more important than the fundamentals. We got a green day, go have a drink and relax.

Let's say it cost 50k for Tesla to build a car
50k will go on their finished goods inventory on the balance sheet
When this car is sold, lets say in q1 2016 the 50k will be moved off of the balance sheet on into COGS expense on the income statement
Revenue will be reported at selling price.

 

[FluxCap]

And AMZN way down AH... may have some FAT MAN contagion.

Other than EPS miss, this is why (from their SEC filing). Bezos gave 2016 guidance in a ridiculous range of $100m to $700m which is kind of like giving a middle finger to Wall Street and saying "here is no guidance at all." Also concerns over $600m in stock-based comp. The stock is being and will continue to be punished accordingly unless Bezos begs forgiveness on the call (going on now). Not likely IMO.

I think this could indeed affect the NASDAQ tomorrow, including us.

 

[Johan]

This is why (from their SEC filing). Bezos gave 2016 guidance in a ridiculous range of $100m to $700m which is kind of like giving a middle finger to Wall Street and saying "here is no guidance at all." Also concerns over $600m in stock-based comp. The stock is being and will continue to be punished accordingly unless Bezos begs forgiveness on the call (going on now). Not likely IMO.

I think this could indeed affect the NASDAQ tomorrow, including us.

That's pretty awesome actually. Imagine Elon giving guidance for 2016: "In 2016 we expect to produce between 50.000 to 100.000 cars with an average sales price of between $60.000 and $115.000 That would sure throw Wall Street for a loop.

 

[FluxCap]

That's pretty awesome actually. Imagine Elon giving guidance for 2016: "In 2016 we expect to produce between 50.000 to 100.000 cars with an average sales price of between $60.000 and $115.000 That would sure throw Wall Street for a loop.

It may sound awesome in theory to snub Wall Street, but the repercussions are obvious, and not sure shareholders want to foot the bill for such cavalier statements.

 

[pGo]

I have now read a few comments talking about Tesla Energy contributing to q1 bottom line. Wondering even if Tesla starts selling them, how big of a quantity do you guys see and what would be the margins on them?

 

[FluxCap]

Who runs this Electrek site? Do we know them? Do they have an agenda?

Tesla says it won’t announce two vehicles in March [Updated] | Ars Technica

 

[pGo]

Who runs this Electrek site? Do we know them? Do they have an agenda?

Tesla says it won’t announce two vehicles in March [Updated] | Ars Technica

I can see someone from here feeding such info to the site..

 

[tinm]

I don't believe anyone who has read your posts does that you hope that. Just the reverse

Tried parsing that several times. Still didn't grok message, sorry.

 

[dakh]

I took the money.

..and I tried to set up a limit and got "The limit price entered is too far away from the last trade for this security." Pretty pissed at Fidelity, I don't have time to sit there and monitor price action.

 

[ibcs]

Tsla getting punished in after hour trading. I think the article stating a double reveal of the Model 3 started to catch attention until Tesla called the report wrong. Down after hours by $4.70 or back to $185.

 

[AlMc]

Tsla getting punished in after hour trading. I think the article stating a double reveal of the Model 3 started to catch attention until Tesla called the report wrong. Down after hours by $4.70 or back to $185.

I would add that many of the FAT MAN stocks, except MSN, are down. I think the AMZN drop has a lot to do with the AH drop

 

[renim]

The gating factor for cash flows is the exceptional event of paying down new production equipment and for new hires, particularly new hires in training for Model X production without Model X being produced. That was the Q3 / Q4 2015 issue that does not exist in Q1. The interesting thing is that it in Q4, exceptional cash outlay is coinciding with exceptional cash flows from Model S. Which one wins out, not sure, but it is going to be a tight race.

In Q1 they have money coming in from Model X, Model S and Tesla Energy and not much going out for Model X production equipment. Totally different picture.

this should be a captain obvious statement, similar to how people only move into houses after it has been built and the builders all paid.

but i suspect it will take a while for the market to digest.

anyway Tesla is 'resource leveling' both their attention and their money, and doing a great job at it.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Interesting article about stranded assets and stranded projects.

Renewables Could Outcompete Costly, Risky LNG, Investors Warned - TheTyee.ca - Mobile

 

[FluxCap]

I would add that many of the FAT MAN stocks, except MSN, are down. I think the AMZN drop has a lot to do with the AH drop

Yes it does. Analyst downgrades in pre-market could pile on the hurt. Amazon had twice TSLA's entire market cap obliterated in seconds tonight. That's a decent chunk of the NASDAQ 100.

 

[AlMc]

Yes it does. Analyst downgrades in pre-market could pile on the hurt. Amazon had twice TSLA's entire market cap obliterated in seconds tonight. That's a decent chunk of the NASDAQ 100.

Good thing you sold those calls before close today :wink:

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Model X is fine. First time you get to know it is Inside EVs etc tally of US DMV registrations.

The car is obviously fine. Production is clearly NOT ok:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ture-Model-X-owners-NOT-receive-their-car-yet

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/61555-Vin-346-Delivery

In the second thread, a customer was told that they would take delivery BEFORE 12/31/2015. They took delivery yesterday, 1/27/2016. A sticker on the car indicated that it went into production on 11/30/2015. It doesn't take a genius to infer that the Model X ramp has been terrible.

Tldr summary: I don't believe it is helpful to ignore what's being said by our fellow forum members who are also customers.

I read the book. I get 6 years delay when you're starting rocket business you don't know about, and 4 years delay when starting car business. Model X harder to understand, but I thought that was lesson learned. I even understand that he uses impossible to achieve goals to commit and push organization. But, such slow movement since September while leaving impression it's all good?

But let's leave 'hate Elon' on the side, as I said it's my fault, I was just venting, or rather, trying to call bottom.

My perception is that Elon's "problem" is that he calculates these deadlines based on an assumption that everyone is as smart and energized as he is. The fact of the matter is that most people don't have IQs north of 160 and most people cannot work 90-100 productive hours/week. A person with a relatively "pedestrian" (for Silicon Valley tech) IQ of 130 is already in the top 3%, and most of these people aren't going to be very productive past 50 hours/week.

It gets worse when one has to deal with suppliers and employees of suppliers.

Takeaway: Elon can be counted on to deliver on his promises. However, he CANNOT be counted on to deliver within his specified timeline. If Elon says: "We will do X by Y date", one should expect that he will accomplish objective X, but not by Y date.

Buy high, sell low? Is that what people here are doing? Really?

This unfortunately seems to be hardwired into most people's psychology. Pain from loss is felt 2x as much as happiness from gain in a typical human. People with abnormal psychology will win, but the normal person won't.

Most people should not be trading TSLA on a short-term basis. There may be people who are reading this who think they are a hot shot who can beat the market trading TSLA. I'd advise them to re-visit the last 10 pages of this thread and re-think that. Unless one has lots of experience in the markets, and is either as cold as a lizard (or alternatively, something of a psychopath -- not in the criminal sense, but in the sense that one feels little to no emotion on steep plunges), trading this stock is a very bad idea.

 

[AlMc]

It may sound awesome in theory to snub Wall Street, but the repercussions are obvious, and not sure shareholders want to foot the bill for such cavalier statements.

View attachment 109613

CAn you imagine the ST thread on ER/CC day if EM decided to go rogue like Bezos?:scared: It would get ugly...faster than a P90DL:cursing:

 

[jhm]

Interesting article about stranded assets and stranded projects.

Renewables Could Outcompete Costly, Risky LNG, Investors Warned - TheTyee.ca - Mobile

That's what I've been talking about. LNG is priced out of the market already.

Suppose you buy natural gas for $2/MMBtu, liquify and ship it for $5/MMBtu, then hope someone will pay $8/MMBtu in Asia for it.

But why should they? If they use a combined cycle natural gas plant it will take 8 MMBtu to produce 1 MWh. That's $64/MWh just for the fuel.

Or they could go with solar under $50/MWh all in.

The economics of LNG just don't work.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Most people should not be trading TSLA on a short-term basis. There may be people who are reading this who think they are a hot shot who can beat the market trading TSLA. I'd advise them to re-visit the last 10 pages of this thread and re-think that. Unless one has lots of experience in the markets, and is either as cold as a lizard (or alternatively, something of a psychopath -- not in the criminal sense, but in the sense that one feels little to no emotion on steep plunges), trading this stock is a very bad idea.

I disagree. Look at the past two years, TSLA has essentially been trading range-bounded between $180 - $290 several times, and although there have been (and will be this year) several catalysts to provide nice bull runs to ATHs, there are enough factors like short interest, FUD, execution risk, production constraints, macro factors among others that bring TSLA back down to 52-week lows just to have future catalysts to bring TSLA back up to near ATHs to start the cycle over again.

The way things are going, I anticipate continued range-bound trading until Model 3 is in steady production and Tesla Energy has significant market penetration to breach (and steadily hold) above the current resistance / ATH near $290 (that's almost a $40 Billion market cap).

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I disagree. Look at the past two years, TSLA has essentially been trading range-bounded between $180 - $290 several times, and although there have been (and will be this year) several catalysts to provide nice bull runs to ATHs, there are enough factors like short interest, FUD, execution risk, production constraints, macro factors among others that bring TSLA back down to 52-week lows just to have future catalysts to bring TSLA back up to near ATHs to start the cycle over again.

The way things are going, I anticipate continued range-bound trading until Model 3 is in steady production and Tesla Energy has significant market penetration to breach (and steadily hold) above the current resistance / ATH near $290 (that's almost a $40 Billion market cap).

I agree that there has been plenty of opportunity to make money on short term trades, given the wide range in price over the past 2 years.

What I'm saying is that most people (humans generally) do not have the psychology to take full advantage (or any advantage at all) of these swings. "Buy High sell low" is what I see on a consistent basis.