Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Chickenlittle]

The shorts have a lot at stake with TSLA, and they tend to act in a loose kind of coordinated way. When they sense an opportunity to pound the stock price, they all pile on.

Some of the boviators on TV, blogs, etc, may have a financial incentive to align with the shorts, but for the most part, they just want eyeballs, and criticizing Tesla gets lots of eyeballs.

So, no matter how great Master Plan 2 might be in reality, it is also an undeniable opportunity for both the shorts and the boviators to pounce, mutually reinforcing negative pressure on the stock . This is going to happen every time Musk or Tesla says something with long-term implications which could possibly be spun negatively.

If you are going to stay long TSLA, you have to get used to this disconnect between the release of information that reasonable investors should be bullish about, and short term stock price movement.

Wall Street has 4 month horizon not 10 year. Nothing in the plan for next qtr

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

7 days and 6 hours until TMC connect. 8 days until Gigafactory event. I'm confident we'll hear more from Elon by then. Anyone attempting to spin the Master Plan Part 2 as a negative is an idiot.

1) Elon isn't saying any of the new things mentioned (such as a Truck, SUV, etc) will happen in the next 2-3 years. All he said is Tesla is working on them now, and they are being worked on for the future. (sometime in the next 5-10 years).

Any analyst who thinks Tesla only intends to produce the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 sedan is an idiot. When Tesla begins producing vehicles at large scale, it makes sense that Tesla will begin producing vehicles for people with different needs.

Tesla Model 3 Lineup To Include SUV, Sedan; 1 Million Electric Cars By 2020
Tesla Model 3 Sedan, Wagon, Coupe & SUV Variants All Under Consideration

Many Model 3 have already been spotted in California, and Tesla should know what the production Model 3 will include and look like by today, and my guess is Tesla is already working with suppliers to make sure there are no significant delays.

Contrary to popular belief, Elon has been fairly on target with his deadlines. The main cause of any significant delays Tesla has had with meeting or exceeding deadlines has been due to Tesla suppliers, or Tesla being extra careful to ensure all Tesla vehicles are built to the highest quality standard.

Regarding AutoPilot. Worst case scenario, Tesla might need to require all people who want to activate AutoPilot to undergo some sort of (3-4 hour?) training course.

I won't comment again about nonsense from journalists, or people who clearly don't know what they are talking about. One week to go.

 

[theschnell]

LOL mainly wishful thinking. I even got the name wrong. This site calls it dragonfly. Introduction to Candlesticks [ChartSchool]

Rough day.

Jul29 cannot come soon enough

Given what just happened, what makes you optimistic about July 29?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Given what just happened, what makes you optimistic about July 29?

There is no volume supporting the move today. Also, the stock is holding firm between two moving averages. The next resistance point was the upper BB at $235.

 

[RobStark]

I believe that most people here at TMC mean well, but a lot of what I read honestly sounds tone deaf to the values and concerns of average working Americans.

You can't hold back progress from here to eternity to protect the ego of 55 year old men working in obsolescent jobs.

 

[sunhelm]

Today's price action is reminiscent of the initial announcement of the SCTY merger. There were a lot of hit pieces that sprouted. Heck, even I was pissed. But upon further reflection, real reason I was pissed is because the SP tumbled but failed to grasp then the strategic, long term advantage of the merger. With SMP2, I am convinced in the long term play, while so called analysts will take this opportunity to shake the weak longs into giving up their positions. This and swing traders, not investors, contributed to the self fulfilling "sell the news" phenomenon we experience today. It's very likely shorts took advantage of this to cover and I wonder what the available to short inventory will look like tomorrow. This too shall pass and look forward to the "steak unveiling (grilling?)" at the Gigaparty.

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm curious - what are you training to be and how much time and money are you spending on it?

Training might be the wrong word. I'm learning about real estate investment and general entrepreneurship. My goal is to completely remove myself from the work force within two years, and be permanently self sustaining financially from passive income as well.
Then I work on the things I want to learn and work on at that tI'm. I'd like to be the first one to crack the neural lace nut.

I spend 20-30 hours a week and no money directly on training (maybe 1k total on books, investor club memberships, etc), but rather on property and things like that.

 

[GBleck]

yes, but a micro train with infinite depots

Good point. I was trying to compare it to hyper loop cargo setups. That should in theory work for adhock small loads.

 

[Irishjugg]

First, I'd say expecting an average American to have 5 years of savings until retirement is unrealistic, and Social Security kicks in at age 62. A 55 year old would have to deal with 7 years of bills, which would be tough for many:

The typical American couple has only $5,000 saved for retirement

Even those on the cusp of retirement — the median couple in their late 50s or early 60s — has saved only $17,000 in a retirement savings account, such as a defined-contribution 401(k), individual retirement account, Keogh or similar savings account.​

About Half of U.S. Families Would Have a Tough Time with a Surprise $400 Expense

Nearly half of U.S. families would find it difficult to deal with an unexpected $400 expense, according to the Federal Reserve in a new study. Those findings were part of the “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. households in 2015,”​

$400 wouldn't even buy 2 shares of TSLA. I try not to lose perspective on what it's like for most people.

Second, it is contradictory to say that Government will have a "huge role" building social safety nets to ensure less of a welfare state. Government taking a big role in building social safety nets is the very definition of a welfare state.




And who would pay for retraining? Or buying into a truck fleet? The American middle class is already under severe financial strain and government debt is at historic highs.

As for "no legitimate skill", that is kind of demeaning. I wouldn't presume to tell working people what is best for them. I am 2 generations removed from working class, (my grandparents had little formal education and worked with their hands to give their children a chance at something better), but I remember that for them, work was more than about money. There was value in pride and dignity of work.

What is the legitimate skill that a truck driver has? Driving a truck?

It's not meant to be demeaning, it's meant to be accurate.

Diving a truck, like being a farm picker, or a textile assembly worker before them are brute force, unskilled occupations, period. Taking pride in making a living will always be there, unskilled labor won't always be valuable (or rather the current unskilled jobs will be replaced with new and different ones over time).

As for who pays, either the person needing to retrain, or any programs put in place to retrain a segment of workers. As to who pays for the purchase of their fleet, the person who wants to stay one, along with some loans.
This won't happen overnight, diverts who buy tesla trucks week eventually be able to make them autonomous. Car 1 of your fleet right there.

As always, the people who want to do these things will do them.

As to the large amount of middle class with no savings and the like, no one forced then to keep trading up their houses and cars and taking on enormous amounts of bad debt. Bad decisions often cause bad outcomes. They will have to work hard to dig out just like they already were anyway. Ideally, with some things like universal healthcare available to them.

 

[austinEV]

I've asked many "experts" about their view on all vehicles going electric. Almost every one of them mentioned they were very skeptical because of Trucks. If Tesla can produce a competitive Electric Truck, the market for the product will be huge.

The product mentioned in the Master Plan reminded me of this.

Way off topic but I hate that ever-present road straddling bus. It would cost billions to build out and the whole system would shut down as soon as one lazy driver bumps it. You don't build out a wildly expensive, fragile mass transit system that only works if everyone on the road drives perfectly. If everyone one the road drove that well you wouldn't need mass transit.

 

[Ugliest1]

You can't hold back progress from here to eternity to protect the ego of 55 year old men working in obsolescent jobs.

Another part of the problem is, I'll quote (from memory so inaccurate) a consultant giving a presentation at some conference I was at more than a decade ago: "People would rather die than change" -- then he showed the statistic for the earlier year that several hundred thousand Americans died annually from lung cancer caused by smoking. Change is really tough.

 

[Drax7]

The shorts have a lot at stake with TSLA, and they tend to act in a loose kind of coordinated way. When they sense an opportunity to pound the stock price, they all pile on.

Some of the boviators on TV, blogs, etc, may have a financial incentive to align with the shorts, but for the most part, they just want eyeballs, and criticizing Tesla gets lots of eyeballs.

So, no matter how great Master Plan 2 might be in reality, it is also an undeniable opportunity for both the shorts and the boviators to pounce, mutually reinforcing negative pressure on the stock . This is going to happen every time Musk or Tesla says something with long-term implications which could possibly be spun negatively.

If you are going to stay long TSLA, you have to get used to this disconnect between the release of information that reasonable investors should be bullish about, and short term stock price movement.

When the master plan got delayed by a few , the desperately seeking alfalfa crowd went haywire,
Now that it's out, the vitriol has been further escalated, their hate is beyond unreal.

Now that tesla is operating above breakeven , financial risk is lessened , and they
Will make progress quickly .

 

[Xpert]

TSLA now down $6.72, or just under 3%.

To get a sense of what the broader tech-oriented community is saying, check out the comments: Musk: Tesla to become a sustainable energy company

The running debate between Tesla fans and Tesla skeptics continues. If technology enthusiasts are still divided, I think it's likely that the investment community is even more skeptical. I see a possible buying opportunity ahead of the Gigafactory party, though tempered by what is likely to be a tepid response to the Q2 conference call in August.

Gotta research more but GF party doesnt seem to have any surprise factor at this point. I am one of those short term skeptical ones, 100% out of tesla last 2 days ~$227. There are little reason/catalysts to stay in until after Q2. Expected this down trend today and will continue weakness through Q2. If MP2 failed to hold the stock it is very weak (barring multiple upgrades which i doubt)

I miss the old group of folks here who give their take on stock price changes daily/weekly, too much general discussion in the thread lately. Peace.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What is the legitimate skill that a truck driver has? Driving a truck?

It's not meant to be demeaning, it's meant to be accurate.

Diving a truck, like being a farm picker, or a textile assembly worker before them are brute force, unskilled occupations, period. Taking pride in making a living will always be there, unskilled labor won't always be valuable (or rather the current unskilled jobs will be replaced with new and different ones over time).

To say someone has "no legitimate skill" implies that the skills they have are illegitimate, in other words "crooked" or "shady". I think you may not have meant that based on what you later said, but I always interpreted "illegitimate skill" as something on the level of drug dealing, illegal gambling, bootlegging, contract killing, and stuff you'd generally find in a Grand Theft Auto video game.

As for who pays, either the person needing to retrain, or any programs put in place to retrain a segment of workers. As to who pays for the purchase of their fleet, the person who wants to stay one, along with some loans.
This won't happen overnight, diverts who buy tesla trucks week eventually be able to make them autonomous. Car 1 of your fleet right there.

As always, the people who want to do these things will do them.

As to the large amount of middle class with no savings and the like, no one forced then to keep trading up their houses and cars and taking on enormous amounts of bad debt. Bad decisions often cause bad outcomes. They will have to work hard to dig out just like they already were anyway. Ideally, with some things like universal healthcare available to them.

This is the status quo. It's not working very well.

It's not a problem for people like you and me... until lots of angry, unemployed, and unemployable people resort to crime and social disorder to survive. It's already going this way in many parts of rural and rust belt America: record levels of painkiller addiction, meth dealing, and suicide. With illegal drugs comes violence, just like it was with alcohol and prohibition.

Another part of the problem is, I'll quote (from memory so inaccurate) a consultant giving a presentation at some conference I was at more than a decade ago: "People would rather die than change" -- then he showed the statistic for the earlier year that several hundred thousand Americans died annually from lung cancer caused by smoking. Change is really tough.

Kind of what I see for the auto industry in the long term. Those who refuse to commit fully to electrification are doomed in the long run, but the established players are kicking and screaming against it.

And again, to make it clear to RobStark and others, I'm not opposed to technological advances, and I view them as inevitable. What I oppose is the near complete disregard and/or lack of planning on the part of government for offering help to those who are left behind by rapid change.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Way off topic but I hate that ever-present road straddling bus. It would cost billions to build out and the whole system would shut down as soon as one lazy driver bumps it. You don't build out a wildly expensive, fragile mass transit system that only works if everyone on the road drives perfectly. If everyone one the road drove that well you wouldn't need mass transit.

1) If this was built. the (rails?) would likely be far enough to the side, on both ends, so if you managed to bump into it, you probably shouldn't be driving.

2) In the future, when all vehicles are autonomous, shouldn't it be expected that everyone on the road drives perfectly?

3) A (bus) that goes over the road, is a great idea.

4) Who said this type of rail system would be wildly expensive? According to the designer of the bus, who was quoted in a NY Times article 'the cost of each bus will run about 30 million renminbi, or about $4.5 million, which Mr. Song put at one-sixteenth the price of a subway train."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/world/asia/china-elevated-bus.html

 

[imherkimer]

Yeah TSLA is weak, says Xpert. Agrees with the "skeptics." Rewards the shorts. Ok, peace. Goodbye.

 

[jhm]

Thanks for the detailed response jhm. I agree with many of your points. I still think highway electrification offers cost, space, transport, and maintenance efficiencies. As battery tech continues to improve I would be happy to be wrong about this. I'll throw a few back of the napkin numbers out.

Based on your #s and the # of semi's in NA, Trucking Statistics - Truckinfo.net, the battery cost would be ~ 1000 kWh / 20% battery utilization x $500/kWh x 2.2M trucks = $5.5T. That's a lot of highway overhead charging line. Something like 90% of the trucking happens on 10% of the roadways, and main interstates and transcontinental highways are unlikely to relocate imho.

Well need to see how Musk frames this. Certainly there is room for both, but I don't see Tesla pushing for that infrastructure or being limited by it.

Borrowing your calculation, this is about 11 TWh of batteries. Moreover, trucking is timesharing use of this asset about 25 to 75 with the grid. So in a fossil-free world that needs at least 500 TWh of battery storage, it is really not that big of a share. It may seem big and expensive from our present vantage point, but it really will be much cheaper than what the oil based economy can provide. So in particular what we need to see from Tesla on this I'd enough detail to see that this solution does in fact compete with diesel tractors today. Once they can make the economics work, the whole thing can take off from there and scale up to whatever share it can achieve.

So we shall see. Cheers.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Gotta research more but GF party doesnt seem to have any surprise factor at this point. I am one of those short term skeptical ones, 100% out of tesla last 2 days ~$227. There are little reason/catalysts to stay in until after Q2. Expected this down trend today and will continue weakness through Q2. If MP2 failed to hold the stock it is very weak (barring multiple upgrades which i doubt)

I miss the old group of folks here who give their take on stock price changes daily/weekly, too much general discussion in the thread lately. Peace.

I think there's room for surprises. Right now, the Gigafactory looks like a big empty shell on the outside.

A demonstration of a functional battery cell production line (the first of many lines to operate in parallel) could offer solid information on the actual potential of the Gigafactory. Elon had previous mentioned that the Panasonic equipment was pretty incredible. Demonstration of an operational pilot line takes some of the uncertainty out of whether Tesla can actually pull off Model 3. Something physical and/or tangible is steak!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Side note: Someone just bought 100,000 shares ($20 million) in stock after hours.

 

[3Victoria]

Was that a glitch?