This is another ER (financials) that could be greatly impacted by the use, or lack of use, of ZEV credits.
I expect poor financials and good CC info. I just feel the market is growing tired, short term, of EMs guidances
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This is another ER (financials) that could be greatly impacted by the use, or lack of use, of ZEV credits.
I expect poor financials and good CC info. I just feel the market is growing tired, short term, of EMs guidances
dc_h
Active Member
The Facebook video is good. You can slide ahead to Q&A. Search tesla on Facebook on your phone.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
davecolene0606
Member
Back to TSLA
I was on an early tour. A few things that became immediately clear were that each new section (module)of the building built for cell manufacturing were individual machines in and of themselves. The first unit is already doing test runs and they already achieved large efficiency gains. We were shown examples ranging from an 80% reduction in electricity requirement for the ovens, recovery and reuse of nearly all solvent components to simple things like the use of reusable trays for,the battery aging process as opposed to the present disposable cardboard ones.
The brilliance IMO lies in the modularity of the design that allows both companies to limit risk as capacity can be added as needed and if one breaks it doesn't kill the whole thing. Each one "floats" by itself, so in the event of an earthquake or similar event the rest keep going. Also, iterations and improvements can be and already are being applied in this modular sense (no shutting down the whole line for improvements). We were shown that the factory is being designed built and modified vis CAD same as Boeing is building the 787, so no very little waste of time "testing" fits and improvements are digitally incorporated. This is being set up to be inherently scalable and easy to copy in different locations.
The "Tesla side was all about assembly of power packs for TE there were no signs of auto packs that I saw yet. The assembly involved a lot of robotics but had a significant amount of hand work still happening. The process is clearly in iterative stages and appears to be headed to nearly full automation right down to autonomous inventory bots a few of which were wandering around one of which greeted our tour by approaching us and saying "welcome to Tesla" and continuing on its mission. The workers were on an evening shift, many devoted to actual production, many building the machine right down to putting together and stocking the break areas. One sorta funny note was that the golf carts currently being use still are LA batteries, but I was assured by the employee that asked that the Li packs were close at hand, other priorities more important now...don't ya know. Which brings up order of priorities, there are very clear ones that are being pursued with great clarity, purpose and from what was demonstrated, the best possible order as well.
While there is a clear delineation of the Panasonic section we met and spoke with Tesla engineers and saw many Panasonic employees who, when greeted with "good evening ", did not answer in english. The tours were small groups (one giude in the back one in front to be sure everyone stayed where they were supposed to) managed by 2 guides per tour reading from a script and enhanced by short talks with Q&A in each section. There were clear limits as to how deeply the question would be answered but everyone shared all that they could. While one could quibble on minor details as far as factory tours go, it was entirely adequate with respect to control and safety.
The summary is that this was a clear demonstration that Tesla/Panasonic are deeply cooperating and integrated in a way that is very unique. The result is a flexible, iterative,scalable,risk limiting process that is allowing for massive gains in both the tech of the widget as well as that machine that makes it. They are executing on a process that will end in supporting the market cap value that AJ and others have discussed. This is clearly lossed on the majority of analysis that has been done. There is much to accomplish here but the scale this operation is massive and will allow both Tesla and Panasonic to,accomplish it while managing risk as well.
Fire away!
I was on an early tour. A few things that became immediately clear were that each new section (module)of the building built for cell manufacturing were individual machines in and of themselves. The first unit is already doing test runs and they already achieved large efficiency gains. We were shown examples ranging from an 80% reduction in electricity requirement for the ovens, recovery and reuse of nearly all solvent components to simple things like the use of reusable trays for,the battery aging process as opposed to the present disposable cardboard ones.
The brilliance IMO lies in the modularity of the design that allows both companies to limit risk as capacity can be added as needed and if one breaks it doesn't kill the whole thing. Each one "floats" by itself, so in the event of an earthquake or similar event the rest keep going. Also, iterations and improvements can be and already are being applied in this modular sense (no shutting down the whole line for improvements). We were shown that the factory is being designed built and modified vis CAD same as Boeing is building the 787, so no very little waste of time "testing" fits and improvements are digitally incorporated. This is being set up to be inherently scalable and easy to copy in different locations.
The "Tesla side was all about assembly of power packs for TE there were no signs of auto packs that I saw yet. The assembly involved a lot of robotics but had a significant amount of hand work still happening. The process is clearly in iterative stages and appears to be headed to nearly full automation right down to autonomous inventory bots a few of which were wandering around one of which greeted our tour by approaching us and saying "welcome to Tesla" and continuing on its mission. The workers were on an evening shift, many devoted to actual production, many building the machine right down to putting together and stocking the break areas. One sorta funny note was that the golf carts currently being use still are LA batteries, but I was assured by the employee that asked that the Li packs were close at hand, other priorities more important now...don't ya know. Which brings up order of priorities, there are very clear ones that are being pursued with great clarity, purpose and from what was demonstrated, the best possible order as well.
While there is a clear delineation of the Panasonic section we met and spoke with Tesla engineers and saw many Panasonic employees who, when greeted with "good evening ", did not answer in english. The tours were small groups (one giude in the back one in front to be sure everyone stayed where they were supposed to) managed by 2 guides per tour reading from a script and enhanced by short talks with Q&A in each section. There were clear limits as to how deeply the question would be answered but everyone shared all that they could. While one could quibble on minor details as far as factory tours go, it was entirely adequate with respect to control and safety.
The summary is that this was a clear demonstration that Tesla/Panasonic are deeply cooperating and integrated in a way that is very unique. The result is a flexible, iterative,scalable,risk limiting process that is allowing for massive gains in both the tech of the widget as well as that machine that makes it. They are executing on a process that will end in supporting the market cap value that AJ and others have discussed. This is clearly lossed on the majority of analysis that has been done. There is much to accomplish here but the scale this operation is massive and will allow both Tesla and Panasonic to,accomplish it while managing risk as well.
Fire away!
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
No.
You're going to have to keep buying in order to do that.
Start writing those checks.....
("Ai!" is right!!!!)
Dave - thank you very much for that cogent set of observations; it appears the quality of event descriptions is improving as a few days go by.
To the extent you dare, can you visualize the degree of replacement of your "...significant amount of hand work..." by robotics at some time down the road? I was quite set back last week when Mr Musk revealed that employee count should be expected to double to 10,000 for the new full size of Gigafactory #1. To me it's perplexing that such a production expansion wouldn't have been accomplished mostly by automation, yet it appears that's not going to be the case.
racer26
Active Member
The harsh reality is that no matter which way you slice it, it's still the largest factory in the world. Most of the gains *will* be accomplished by automation, but there will always be some processes which need a human to complete them reliably.
3x output needing only 1.5x employees does show there is significant automation going on.
I think that Chelsea's husband used to work for Tesla but was let go in approx. 2012. So she may understandably harbor some less than pleasant views of Tesla.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
And Tesla brought her in for interviews recently. She's on friendly terms with many Tesla execs. Old news re her husband. Let's all move on.
davecolene0606
Member
The "hand work" I saw being done was taking place along side automated processes and in large part appeared to lend itself to automation. In fact, as I commented on earlier, at each point the machine is the process of being built. In at least one case some of the hand work was an assembly process that was being done along side a robotic arm that looked like it was being trained for the task.
I think the 10k figure is reasonable as the output predicted is 3X for a 2X growth in staff. I could even see where there could be a 10k surge of people followed by a decline as processes are refined and where this trained set of employees can be utilized to multiply the factory.
Fire Away!
Wow, you guys are harsh. I was on the same tour with Chelsea, and saw and heard some (not all) of the same things. Her opinion of what we saw was sobering to me. She pointed out where the "smoke an mirrors" was, and there was much more than I saw at first...and I did see it too once she pointed it out. She mentioned she's toured several battery factories from other manufacturers before. During the tour, there were several Tesla employees who came over and greeted her warmly like old friends seeing each other again. She spoke to several at length.
She was a guest speaker at TMC Connect earlier in day, and is a great friend of TMC and the EV community, and yes Tesla too. She knows way more about what's going on in the industry than most here. It'd behoove some to peek outside the bubble and sober up a bit, and perhaps listen to that friend even if she isn't saying what you want to hear.
She was a guest speaker at TMC Connect earlier in day, and is a great friend of TMC and the EV community, and yes Tesla too. She knows way more about what's going on in the industry than most here. It'd behoove some to peek outside the bubble and sober up a bit, and perhaps listen to that friend even if she isn't saying what you want to hear.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Re Chelsea
Is she perfect ? Does she have special immunity from criticism that Elon and Tesla don't have?
Chelsea seems like a frenemy of Tesla to me.
That is fine. She can nit pick all she wants.
Doesn't mean her analysis can't be criticized as well.
Is she perfect ? Does she have special immunity from criticism that Elon and Tesla don't have?
Chelsea seems like a frenemy of Tesla to me.
That is fine. She can nit pick all she wants.
Doesn't mean her analysis can't be criticized as well.
I believe GF will be in production by this time next year. They never claimed that factory is in full production. Going there with wrong expectations and then seeing engineering or pre-production activities could have disappointed many of you.
3Victoria
Active Member
I think the term "smoke and mirrors" has connotations of trying to deceive. I don't see any evidence of that. This factory is a work in progress. Its time frame was greatly accelerated in April. Even with that it is not supposed to produce cells until the end of the year. The videos I watched are in congruence with those expectations.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My comments were certainly harsh, but they were based solely on what this person wrote on Twitter, and I had no preconceived notions of who this person was, as I'd never heard of her before.
Twitter is an unforgiving medium because of its public and highly visible nature. Opinionated and charged tweets are going to elicit a torrent of response.
I've offered plenty of criticism of Tesla in the past, but with plenty of reasoning to back it up. Snarky jabs at Tesla via Twitter are just that : jabs without substance.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I had thought it was further along but the Tesla people on our tour were very open about the fact that there was not yet any cell production and the Anode and Cathode areas were just being finished up being built. Most of what I saw reminded me of giant erector set configurations (especially the cell material drying and aging racks) and you had to use your imagination to understand what the Tesla guides and employees were telling us about how the whole thing will work when it is done. Where there were giant machines (Mostly the giant presses) those were covered in plastic and they had cardboard over the control panels. They told us upfront we were allowed to video or photograph anything we saw, but we couldn't get close to the Panasonic equipment. The real activity was in the pack assembly area at the end, and currently that is just for TE products not automotive packs. Best part of the whole tour for me was getting shuttled to the lookout point where you could get a good look at the whole site. It is already freaking huge and only 25% done. Not sure about smoke and mirrors but it was pretty amazing all the effort that has gone into it so far and the plans for completion. The robots in the pack assembly area were fascinating to watch, and there was one delivery bot that was genuinely confused at first when our large group wandered into its way. It backed off a few times until it finally saw its chance to roll around us to wherever it was going.
The factory tours were by reservation as we checked into the event and they had a monitor listing what groups were currently going on the tour but lots of lines everywhere in the event tent. There were long lines for the bar, the food (now there we were talking smoke and mirrors for sure) and the S and X test drives. While my daughter and I were in line for the food we got talking to a guy in front of us who thought that was the line for the X test drives. He was glad we told him he was in the wrong line.
It was for the food which was almost completely gone by the time we got to the table except for a big bowl full of salami. Seriously salami? What little we did get was mostly just bread and bread sticks, though the tables were replenished multiple times after, we just didn't feel up to waiting in the long lines all over again. Elon needs to put some of his production efficiency ideas into food provision at the next events. To be fair there were also circulating wait staff with trays of tasty appetizer. And lots of alcohol of course.- Status
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