Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FluxCap]

230 and there are a lot of shorts questioning their stamina right now.

 

[FredTMC]

Would be nice if we could finish the day above 230.

Yes... Let's do that

 

[vgrinshpun]

230 and there are a lot of shorts questioning their stamina right now.

At 0 shares available to short at Fidelity and 16.5% estimated annual interest, unlike the worst possible credit card out there, getting by on a minimum payment is not going to cut it - they got to pay this thing down!

BTW, a very informative chat yesterday on Google hangout. Thanks for the insights!

 

[MitchJi]

On the grand scheme of things though, it`s not that big of an issue. True, that most of us were thinking Q2 is "it", it`s the month when Tesla may even show FCF positive. Well, we were 1 quarter off.

PS: As some have calculated, somewhere around 2k cars per week Tesla is FCF positive. I bet that`s not know at all outside TMC either.

On the call they said something about being CFP except for M3 cap-ex.

 

[FluxCap]

At 0 shares available to short at Fidelity and 16.5% estimated annual interest, unlike the worst possible credit card out there, getting by on a minimum payment is not going to cut it - they got to pay this thing down!

BTW, a very informative chat yesterday on Google hangout. Thanks for the insights!

Absolutely old friend! Miss talking to you - maybe you could join the next one? Your insights and analysis shared here remain among the best anywhere. Thanks for contributing despite the noise.

 

[Yonki]

Wonder why SCTY is not really tracking TSLA at all...

 

[Fallenone]

Wonder why SCTY is not really tracking TSLA at all...

Tentative agreement is 0.11 exchange ratio. There is risk this may get lower.

 

[SBenson]

Baird's Ben Kallo reiterates Outperform, $338 PT (via StreetInsider)

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying while Q2 missed the production ramp and long-term goals are in focus.

Kallo commented, "Q2 revenue was in line with our estimate, but TSLA missed on EPS with higher-than-expected OPEX. Additionally, gross margin missed consensus estimates and was pressured during the quarter with the Model S refresh and X ramp, but automotive gross margin improved sequentially, which was better than we expected. Importantly, TSLA reaffirmed its 2H:16 delivery target of ~50k vehicles, expects margins to ramp in 2H:16 given higher manufacturing efficiency, and the Model 3 remains on track for 2H:17 production."

For Q3, they expect TSLA to deliver ~12k Model S and ~9k Model X vehicles, generating ~$2.07B in revenue, and ~$0.00 in EPS. For 2016, we estimate revenue of ~$8.21B and EPS of ($0.39) vs. our previous estimates of $8.34B/$0.00, respectively.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

Good info. Thanks for posting.

A couple of discussion points:

1) "For Q3, they expect TSLA to deliver ~12k Model S and ~9k Model X vehicles"

Who are "they"?? I didn't see Tesla giving out any Q3 guidance, let alone a fine breakdown between S and X. Did Ben get to privately talk to management? or is this some consensus analyst projection?

2) Ben is the second biggest Bull (right behind Dougherty) among analysts. Looks like he is receding to a non-profitable Q3. I think this is a dead give away that both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS will be negative for Q3 also.

In Q4, merger happens and SCTY financials will be a drag on TSLA financials. So a positive EPS for Q4 is also a suspect.

Ummm... I wonder until when we will be waiting for a positive EPS... It's one thing not to have positive cashflow (it makes sense to do capex) but not having a positive eps is really a bit of a bother for me.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Next headline.....Jim Chanos has excited his TSLA short...lol. I can feel it.

 

[esk8mw]

Not sure what FBN Securities is but they upped price target by $15:

"FBN Securities reiterated Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Outperform rating and price target $275
Previous price target: $260"

 

[vgrinshpun]

Good info. Thanks for posting.

A couple of discussion points:

1) "For Q3, they expect TSLA to deliver ~12k Model S and ~9k Model X vehicles"

Who are "they"?? I didn't see Tesla giving out any Q3 guidance, let alone a fine breakdown between S and X. Did Ben get to privately talk to management? or is this some consensus analyst projection?

2) Ben is the second biggest Bull (right behind Dougherty) among analysts. Looks like he is receding to a non-profitable Q3. I think this is a dead give away that both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS will be negative for Q3 also.

In Q4, merger happens and SCTY financials will be a drag on TSLA financials. So a positive EPS for Q4 is also a suspect.

Ummm... I wonder until when we will be waiting for a positive EPS... It's one thing not to have positive cashflow (it makes sense to do capex) but not having a positive eps is really a bit of a bother for me.

I think this is awkward write-up by StreetInsider. I believe "them" is Baird, and Q3 delivery projections and EPS is by Ben Kallo.

Ben Kallo historically was a very measured and pragmatic Bull, with several very good calls on stock movements. Yesterday on CNBC he called the stock going up today...

 

[Fallenone]

Good info. Thanks for posting.

A couple of discussion points:

1) "For Q3, they expect TSLA to deliver ~12k Model S and ~9k Model X vehicles"

Who are "they"?? I didn't see Tesla giving out any Q3 guidance, let alone a fine breakdown between S and X. Did Ben get to privately talk to management? or is this some consensus analyst projection?

2) Ben is the second biggest Bull (right behind Dougherty) among analysts. Looks like he is receding to a non-profitable Q3. I think this is a dead give away that both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS will be negative for Q3 also.

In Q4, merger happens and SCTY financials will be a drag on TSLA financials. So a positive EPS for Q4 is also a suspect.

Ummm... I wonder until when we will be waiting for a positive EPS... It's one thing not to have positive cashflow (it makes sense to do capex) but not having a positive eps is really a bit of a bother for me.

I think "they" refers to Ben and colleagues.

Did a rough calculation on the impact of SCTY to TSLA. If they still lose ~$2.5 per share in Q4 and TSLA Q4 ER totally takes this in. That's about eating away all the gross profit from 10k cars sold.

Edit: Seems like the something's wrong with the quote on SCTY in fidelity. instead of ~$-2.5 eps it should be $-0.22 eps. So, immaterial impact of the merged TSLA financials (about 1k cars' gross profit, I'm sure this is with in the margin of error of TSLA's delivery)

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think "they" refers to Ben and colleagues.

Did a rough calculation on the impact of SCTY to TSLA. If they still lose ~$2.5 per share in Q4 and TSLA Q4 ER totally takes this in. That's about eating away all the gross profit from 10k cars sold.

I doubt the companies will merge in Q4.

 

[koolkool]

See here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...2AB74/SCTY_News_2016_8_1_General_Releases.pdf

They installed 201 MWh vs. guidance of 185 MW (+8.6%). Bookings were up 40% over Q1 (which was terrible) to an okay 225 MW. Full year guidance revised downward to 0.9 - 1.0 GW (vs. 1.0 - 1.1 GW) which looks semi-bad but does help the books since growth is really expensive due to fronting the cost for all these systems.

In Q1 their cost per watt skyrocketed (from ~$2.75 in Q4 to $3.18 in Q1) due to really high sales costs (well more like flat sales costs vs severely reduced sales) causing a per watt increase in sales costs from $0.54 in Q1 to $0.98. This is one area where the Tesla merger should really help via Tesla stores. Due to improved bookings, SCTY says there was a significant improvements in sales cost per watt in Q2 (maybe down to $0.70 from $.98) so total cost per watt should be much better under $3.

Loan purchases (vs. leases) seem to be popular, which helps SCTY with short term cash flows and profitability since the payback is immediate.

SCTY plans two big product releases in late 2016: An integrated solar/storage product, and new solar roofing (e.g. shingles) for new homes.

Overall the books should look pretty good because slower growth moves them closer to profitability.

Link and a nice summary. Thanks, you're the best!

 

[Fallenone]

I doubt the companies will merge in Q4.

Unless the vote didn't pass (I think this highly unlikely) or SEC doesn't allow it. Otherwise it will be done this Q4. Financials may not be merged in Q4 though.

 

[Yonki]

Tentative agreement is 0.11 exchange ratio. There is risk this may get lower.

That's one theory. The other is that I'm terrible at percentages. Seems to be tracking pretty well:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Unless the vote didn't pass (I think this highly unlikely) or SEC doesn't allow it. Otherwise it will be done this Q4. Financials may not be merged in Q4 though.

I was talking about merging companie's financials in Q4. I do not think that there is a real chance of this happening.

 

[tinm]

Another data point. One of my brokers, Schwab, just emailed me for the first time ever "inviting" me to "loan" my TSLA shares. If they're reaching out to me, they must be really desperate

 

[MitchJi]

Absolutely old friend! Miss talking to you - maybe you could join the next one? Your insights and analysis shared here remain among the best anywhere. Thanks for contributing despite the noise.

Vlad did excellent analysis of the SCTY acquisition squeeze potential.

Really appreciated!

 

[MitchJi]

OT but I can't resist. Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy:
Trump's presidential campaign has crushed traffic to his hotels and casinos

There has been an interesting arc over the last year. Before Trump announced his presidential bid, foot traffic to his properties was steady year-over-year  —  and maybe even saw a small uptick. After he entered the race, his branded properties failed to get their usual summertime traffic gains. In August 2015, the share of people coming to all Trump-branded properties was down 17% from the year before.

These losses stabilized to single digits for a number of months, but as primary voting season hit full swing in March 2016, share losses grew again. Trump properties did not get their usual springtime bounce of travelers and locals. March share was down 17% once more.

The properties that were hardest hit were the Trump SoHo, Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago and Trump Taj Mahal, down 17–24% in raw foot traffic this past year as compared to the previous year. Incidentally, Trump Taj Mahal on Wednesday announced that it will be closing its doors after Labor Day, citing an ongoing employee strike as the reason; our foot traffic report shows the problems ran deeper.