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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Solarcity is currently making Silevo solar panels in their pilot plant in Fremont and will be making them in volume next year in Buffalo. The solar roof idea is something else. Couldn't find reference to solar shingles in the conference call. Must have read it somewhere else or, perhaps, solar roof reads like solar shingle. We'll find out soon enough.

I'd say that the product is not solar shingles, just a roof made of panels, like a glass roof but made with solar panels instead.
 
I'm guessing a lot of potential Solar City customers have done some research and decided to wait for the more attractive panels and improved battery. I certainly would.
there are very good reasons some of us have decided to wait a bit,
1) no answer yet on buying power wall with 3-4 inquiries (admittedly florida, usa so ok)
2) want PV + battery + EV plug (HPWV) + VPP capable inverter + "islanding" capable (microgrid of 1 house or more)
3) Australians seem ahead of US AGL invests in world’s largest battery storage virtual power plant
4) pretty ready to buy if get the "whole package" ( present PV array installed 1999)
 
A good SolarCity ER could have added some fuel to a potential $TSLA short squeeze. With the numbers reported I do not see any fuel added.
Unfortunately I could imagine that shorts are feeling a bit more confident after SolarCity ER last night.
You know that SCTY loses money on every panel they install?

A down day would be nice so that my limit order for TSLA options fills.
 
Tesla Short Interest Falls 2.4 Million Shares

Shares sold short in Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) fell by 2.4 million for the period that ended July 29, coming in at about 30 million. More important, the company has a huge 24% if is float sold short, a sense of how deeply some investors believe the company will fail.

The gamble represented by the percentage of the float has plenty of support, particularly when it comes to Tesla’s ability to ramp sales, as it has over 400,000 reservations for its inexpensive Model 3. In its most recent letter to shareholders, the company said it lost $293 million. It also said it delivered fewer cars than expected, but that it could deliver 50,000 cars in the second half of the year.

The worries about Tesla fall into two categories, which are related. The first is whether its Gigafactory can get online fast enough to allow the company to deliver 500,000 cars a year before the end of the decade. This is one measure founder Elon Musk has made for the company. It also will be necessary for Tesla to meet the demand for the Model 3.

Tesla also faces growing competition from larger car companies. Recently, BMW began to attack the pace with which Tesla can produce cars. According to Automotive News:

BMW is taking direct aim at Tesla Motors Inc. in new ads for its 330e electric plug-in hybrid. Two new TV spots don’t mention Tesla by name. But the implications are clear that BMW is taking a jab at the startup electric car maker and the fact that the much-hyped Tesla Model 3 won’t be available for a long while.

BMW already has two “mostly electric” models in its i3 and i8. The market will be flooded with new electric car models within the next few years.

Tesla’s auto-pilot feature already has upcoming competition from Google and Apple, along with many of the world’s largest car manufactureds.
It seems like the larger and smarter shorts are starting to bail. If so that obviously reduces the chances of the acquisition triggering a squeeze. Maybe I'm better off if the orders I've placed for Mar380's don't fill.
 
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i somewhat disagree. look up UniSolar ASi flexable panels that went on standing seam roofs. low power, lots of connectors to go bad. (from around 20+ or so years ago)

There is concern of water seepage into crevices. Wiring of modules is elevated and air-space oriented. GAF lifetime shingles alone are a $10,000-15,000 roofing solution and made well. However, add in wiring, technology and try to make them 30-40 year shingles in addition and it is very hard.

A metal roof with metal-roof attachment solar pv and you have a 30+ roof off the bat. What they need to do is find ways to make metal roofs look less like metal roofs for residential communities. And perhaps use a knurled surface pattern on glass rather than flat glass as the solar surface so it looks rougher and harder to spot. Then it may catch-on as a roofing "first choice". In New Orleans, there are a lot of solar roofs out there and they look pretty bad, not even close to the typical color of roofs and were influenced by the solar rebate program so many have shading issues, poor placement, etc. Same thing happened in Australia.
 
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This money manager is betting big on Tesla

Many portfolio managers, on the hunt for winning bets, always keep an eye on unloved companies. Catherine Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, and Christopher Retzler, portfolio manager at Needham Funds, are no exceptions.


Wood believes electric vehicles will be moving onto the scene faster than people realize. For that reason, she's betting big on Tesla.

"[Electric cars] are four times more efficient than traditional cars," she said. "We think electric vehicles are going to ramp up, thanks to Tesla, much faster than people anticipate."

For her part, Wood at ARK Invest said she remains bullish on Amazon.

"In this last holiday season, Amazon took half of all the incremental sales online … and it took a quarter of all incremental retail sales," she explained. "Its shares are going up because Amazon Prime is such a good deal.


They're delighting the consumer," Wood added. "That's what they do all the time.

"So, yes, we believe that the share shift is accelerating online," she said. "And that Amazon is going to get the lion's share of that."
 
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These may seem like egregious “failures” of an unsafe system—but compared with what? It’s only a failure if you’re thinking about a Tesla as a self-driving car that just isn’t up to the task. It’s not that car. Consider this: If a Toyota driver had standard cruise control set for 70 miles per hour on the highway and failed to take over and reduce speed for a 25 mph turn, would we blame the cruise control for the resulting crash? Relinquishing full control to Autopilot is no different.

That is one of the best paragraphs I read in defense of autopilot.

Got it from here: I Just Drove 8 Hours on Tesla's Autopilot and Lived to Tell
 
Expecting new all time high in Q4.
With the pending release of the Gen 2 powerwall how do you think that would affec
On the earnings call, Elon said that the new power walls were due closer to the end of the year. When you put that together with another statement about how Tesla is reengineering their products assuming that the solar city deals going through it makes you think that the new generation power wall products are engineered for the solar city panels

Thanks for the update. Earlier he had mentioned that those would be released July-Aug. I was hoping to identify how it would affect the SP. It now sounds like it would be catalyst for Q4.
 
Looking at my IB news feed, it looks like the media is trying to run with the China AP accident story now...even though the news is like a week old. It's like they have a list of negative stories to run and just use them as needed to produce the best effect.

"Something AP related? Eh, let's sit on it. SCTY reports soon, let's wait to see if we can use that. No? SCTY did OK? Alright, let's go with the China AP thing. Ready, set, go!"
 
I'd say that the product is not solar shingles, just a roof made of panels, like a glass roof but made with solar panels instead.

Extracted some quotes from Elon and a picture/diagram of the solar roof panels (look like standard solar panels). All of this came from articles published by Electrek on the Solar City conference call in June.

"So on the same surface area of roof you can get as much as a third more power. Aesthetically speaking, the Silevo panels look better, they look a lot better. If it’s done right, we can make your roof look better with solar panels than without."

"I really do want to emphasize that I think the Silevo technology is going to make quite a big difference. I don’t see any kind of fundamental cost issue that prevents it from being at or lower cost per watt than any other panel in the world."

"I’ve spent time in the SolarCity/Silevo factory in the Bay Area so I’m familiar with this."

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With the pending release of the Gen 2 powerwall how do you think that would affect


Thanks for the update. Earlier he had mentioned that those would be released July-Aug. I was hoping to identify how it would affect the SP. It now sounds like it would be catalyst for Q4.

Expect that Tesla Energy products will not significantly impact stock price until Q1 2017. There are so many catalysts lined up, that one might reasonably expect a series of bumps in the stock price, starting with a big jump in revenue in Q3, followed by Auto pilot, Tesla Energy and Model 3. Could the first production Model 3 be less than a year away?
 
I think it's worth remembering that there's a segment of buyers for Model S that are just buying it because it's the new hot thing, and have no intention of posting VINs online.

That doesn't change the big picture. We can fairly assume that the reported highest VIN is not very far from actual highest VIN.

When you have enough data points you can rather accurately estimate the highest number.

Please see German tank problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
1) Event in China happened over 1 week ago. Why is it being reported on today?

2) The Tesla brazed a Volkswagen vehicle that was parked (illegally) on the left side of the highway.

3) No-one was injured.

4) 100% probability the full event was caught on camera. There are tons of cameras everywhere on China's highways.

5) In a post online, the 33-year-old programmer (Luo Zhen or Lou Zhen depending on which article you read) admitted he was not paying attention and did not have his hands on the wheel — something that Tesla instructs its drivers to do when using the driverless mode.

6) It's nearly impossible to drive 100% safely on China's highways. There are a crazy number of old or makeshift vehicles being driven at crazy speeds. In my view, the minor accident was probably the best case scenario. The accident probably would have been a lot worse if it wasn't active.

7) I wonder who Luo Zhen or Lou Zhen is. Usually for legal reasons, with these types of events in China, newspapers don't say the full name of the person.
 
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If deliveries are a dissapointment this year, what are some realistic short term catalysts we can look to? How can SP hold/do well through end of year? I'm definitely excited for next year when they things get real with Model 3.

I feel like there's a pretty low liklihood Tesla hits 50k deliveries for the second half this year. Just listening to Elon speak in the conference call, he didn't seem very excited when talking demand and 'about 2k/week' for the remainder of the year.
 
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