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Ulmo
Active Member
More fun: ok, I can speculate on the positive side, all without any real information, and therefore, completely meaningless:
a. Solar panel shingles could be as productive as regular panels.
b. They would obtain this productivity by simply engineering existing solar panel products to be code-compliant for the shingle layer (i.e., replacing and becoming the shingle layer). They would not try to make a shingle-looking like wooden shake, ceramic tile, or tar with embedded pebble shingle; they would make a shingle that looks like, is, and acts like, a solar panel. This is essentially taking an as-is solar panel and doing the necessary re-engineering (from the ground up) to make it shingle-worthy as the top layer over a water barrier. Then, it would be marketed and sold as a code-compliant manufacturer-specified shingle, despite the fact that it is also doubling as the same materials and product that would be used in any rack-mounted solar panel setup. This would allow any contractor, architect, engineer, or handyman to throw these newfangled solar panel shingles up on a reroof or new construction, with the waterproofing underneath, and proper flashing for interfaces to the fireman access zones material and other penetrations and interfaces, as usual, per manufacturer specifications (tested, listed, and codified). This engineering would also provide the fireman access material that looks like solar panels (they could even re-engineer the solar panels to be fire accessible, so that the solar panel shingles can go to the crest of the roof, or alternatively they could get some fireman compliant solar-panel looking shingle material to fill that gap). This is all a very big deal in terms of Underwriters Laboratory (UL) listing, fire code listing, and manufacturer engineering specifications, and therefore would go a long way toward being installed on every roof everywhere for new construction and reroofings, because it would keep construction costs way down (because they wouldn't need special engineering for the fitness for purpose, and they could skip the entire old fashioned shingle layer in new roof since the solar panels are now specified shingles, thus saving hugely on engineering, cost, and complexity, as well as weight), but without having to do a huge amount of re-engineering to make it look like a god darned old-fashioned shingle. Solar panels are the new look. Get used to it. Face it. Live it. Love it. Or hate it and do it anyway. Tar shingles are ugly anyway; who wants to have something look like the way it was, when the new way is better, and therefore would be better to look at since we would appreciate it more? The biggest mistakes with solar panels as shingles are, on the one hand, trying to make them look like outdated shingles, or on the other hand, not taking the shingle specifications seriously (we built specifications for building products upon centuries of millions of peoples' engineering and experience; any new shingle would have to have competent engineering, for every little facet of this aspect of building; you can't shoehorn it in, but you'd be surprised once you embrace the full building materials engineering aspect of the design how easy it will be to finally engineer such a building material with the knowledge and materials you already posses given your design purposes and truth in spirit).
c. They would not follow in the footsteps of other solar shingle manufacturers (see (b)).
d. No one on the planet except me and exactly 1 other bold leader within SCTY has the idea that I stated in (b), and therefore, they will have a clear competitive advantage.
(Oops.)
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International orders still waiting? Not sure if they're shipping everywhere the Model S is yet but there was that recent article on gray-market Model X in China, so there are obviously still unfulfilled orders.
Not if just the biggest five institutional holders, as a minimum, need to recall more than 8 times more shares sold short than what was covered in the last 2 weeks (22.2-2.362 / 2.362 = 8.4) AND the string of bad news comes to an end, OR replaced by good news for a change...
Actually, if anything, technical squeeze seems more and more likely, as pace of recalls, or short sellers bailing out on their own in anticipation of the recalls, intensifies as the merger vote date drawing closer.
Just imagine what happens if short covering intensifies as we draw closer to the merger voting date AND bad news are replaced with good news...
Yes, it's plausible. It would have been a very bad investment choice on their part, but I've heard of worse decisions. I don't think it's likely. But it isn't *implausible*.
racer26
Active Member
Would it necessarily have to have been a crappy decision?
If they bought the convertible notes, then later sold short, knowing they had the deep ITM notes acting as a hedge against the short?
If the covering rate doubles they could easily recall *everything* in less than 2 months without a technical short-squeeze. Since the vote probably won't be for two months...
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I finally found time to watch this. Thanks for posting this link. Double thanks to Dave and Andrea.
Great interview.
I think that a more likely cadence for the covering would be big initial push (as we just experienced) followed by prolonged period of complacency, and then final frantic push as the voting date draws closer (human nature and such...) This will result in explosive SP move some time in Q4, especially if coincident with other catalysts (non-GAAP profitability, new product announcements)
If the scenario you've described pans out instead (my personal opinion is that it is less likely), i.e. the rate of covering increases 2 times, sustained over 2 month, and negative catalysts are replaced by the positive ones, the SP will IMO pop the ATH.
Wouldn't this theoretically happen in Q3? Wasn't it supposed to be after the 45 go shop provision ends in mid-September or did I misread something?
My understanding that a deal needs to be approved by the SEC first, after the "go shop provision" expires.
They ran a few ads in China. We do know they had a demand problem in China (due to bad employees, who have since been fired) prior to that. So yeah...
My understanding is that the Silevo product is a standard solar panel, but 30 % more efficient than most. The panels are all black, so they are more attractive than most. Solar shingles were mentioned by Elon somewhere in the earnings conference call, but not as the major form of solar panel. We'll know more late Q4 as they ramp the new product (panels, inverter and battery pack).
On the Solar City ER call, Elon actually mentioned "Solar Roof", not shingles. My understanding is that it could be engineered roof with panels replacing both substructure and shingles.
In the SCTY conf call today Musk talked a lot about the "making roofs", but I don't think they once mentioned shingles. Made me wonder if they are just going to make something that would just snap onto the trusses or something with no need for shingles or tarpaper etc. We'll find out I guess.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Depreciation starts immediately.
Should need to be enormous. Alternatively, they'll get a lot of terrible press for failing to have service centers.
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