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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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The improvements to the autopilot seem quite significant. But I'm unsure if the improvements will move the SP. I have my doubts.

It has been mentioned before, but the most important thing here is the fleet learning. It seems as if the fleet learning wasn't really using the radar data before V8. But now that it is included, Tesla has drastically increased the benefit of the fleet learning. Over the next few months, the Model S/X drivers will be mapping the world in radar, slowly getting more and more accurate information. This data will likely be directly transferrable to the Model 3, which means that the Model 3 will have a high-functioning autopilot right out of the box.

Add this to the pile of good news from the last few weeks:

- Solar City has 400 million less debt than expected.
- Tesla has secured 300 million in lease funding, reducing dilution in an eventual cap raise.
- P100DL means Tesla has the quickest mass produced car, with better range than any other electric or hydrogen car.
- Tesla is approaching both positive cash flow and profitability in Q3.
- No competition from Apple in the near future.

Anything else?
 
The improvements to the autopilot seem quite significant. But I'm unsure if the improvements will move the SP. I have my doubts.

It has been mentioned before, but the most important thing here is the fleet learning. It seems as if the fleet learning wasn't really using the radar data before V8. But now that it is included, Tesla has drastically increased the benefit of the fleet learning. Over the next few months, the Model S/X drivers will be mapping the world in radar, slowly getting more and more accurate information. This data will likely be directly transferrable to the Model 3, which means that the Model 3 will have a high-functioning autopilot right out of the box.

Add this to the pile of good news from the last few weeks:

- Solar City has 400 million less debt than expected.
- Tesla has secured 300 million in lease funding, reducing dilution in an eventual cap raise.
- P100DL means Tesla has the quickest mass produced car, with better range than any other electric or hydrogen car.
- Tesla is approaching both positive cash flow and profitability in Q3.
- No competition from Apple in the near future.

Anything else?
Also the potential big competitor - Apple, appears to have abandoned EVs
 
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Is it really necessary to see the color if position of each of the red, yellow and green light in the cluster is standardized?

Train crossings can use different configurations. And sometimes you have one light to the right to give special meaning for those turning. Sometimes that light can be orange (cautious turn) or red (no turn). At least that's what I have encountered.
 
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So how did you come up with production for these quarters? Snap shot below includes production and deliveries reported in shareholder's letters.

Yeah, it's a pain that Tesla doesn't report more stuff in a standardised way.This particular information can also be found in their 10-Qs sometimes. Sometimes you have to get creative, taking total numbers for the year and then subtracting known quarters, etc.. For example

TSLA 2016Q2 10Q said:
In the second quarter of 2016, we produced 18,345 vehicles, including about 6,200 Model X vehicles

TSLA 2016Q2 10Q said:
All of this is pure speculation. VIN counting does not produce reliable results suitable for determining production rate.

Why not? For the X I agree (up till now), but for the S the wait times have been fairly predictable lately meaning that there may be some impedance between VIN assignment and production but it won't be off by thousands, especially when taking over larger periods like full quarters.
 
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Train crossings can use different configurations. And sometimes you have one light to the right to give special meaning for those turning. Sometimes that light can be orange (cautious turn) or red (no turn). At least that's what I have encountered.
To mention the obvious. Radar doesn't see light, period. Radar can be used to see that there is a roughly traffic-light shaped object ahead, and assess the distance and direction to this object fairly accurately. That's about it it.

There will always be a need for cameras, as long as the traffic system is as it is today.
 
Well *sugar*, Tesla down in Europe by 2,5%...
Hoping it will change, right now it feels like us longs being in a tsunami of hurt.
I see what you mean but disagree. Does it feel bad? SURE. But us longs are in for the long run and we know/believe in the post M3 ramp world TSLA will double (at least). Unless one of us need cash right now, we are not forced to sell. Shorts on the other hand... When the inevitable short squeeze starts they will have to cover, no choice there. Now that's a tsunami of hurt.
 
I see what you mean but disagree. Does it feel bad? SURE. But us longs are in for the long run and we know/believe in the post M3 ramp world TSLA will double (at least). Unless one of us need cash right now, we are not forced to sell. Shorts on the other hand... When the inevitable short squeeze starts they will have to cover, no choice there. Now that's a tsunami of hurt.

A falling share price is also not good for Tesla really, as the lending markets become expensive, tapping the equity markets will be needed to go forward.
 
It seems that there is reaction to this in pre-market. The Nasdaq Fut is down 0.68%, while TSLA came up from -1% to now +1%. This is early pre-market, but is a good sign so far...

Snap1.png
 
"I agree. Tesla's best quarter so far has been about 17k. This quarter they are aiming for about 24k? (2k a week, 2.2k would be 26.4k). Even if they fall short it will still probably be their best quarter ever, aim for the moon, land among the stars.[/QUOTE]"

Averaging 2k per week for 12 weeks would be nice.
Though I never underestimate Elon, he may well
Go beyond that. He does not back off when challenged.
 
If we don't end up green today, I don't know what to say.

SCTY gets $300M funding, so that should be a good thing.
AP Updates will make Teslas even more the safest cars on the road than they already were.
TSLA with its own $300M credit line from Deutsche Bank
AAPL backing out of the car space.
Merger recall pressure
and whatever else has slipped my mind?
 
This is along the lines of what I was thinking, that SCTY is a long term hedge against utilities that wouldn't play nice, and possibly escalating electricity prices that would hamper EV adoption.

My problem with this is buying this long term hedge comes at the expense of short and mid term results. SCTY is not needed for at least couple of years, probably up to five, and in the meantime will weight heavily on results and confuse financial picture.

This would be less of a problem if stock price isn't 30% down from the peak, but it is. Tesla needs to be respectful of investors of all vintages, not only ones that bought before 2013

So, I keep holding and will vote 'no'.
Tesla doesn't need to be respectful of any investors at all, investors need to be respectful to the fact that they purchased Tesla's vision and long term plans. It you went long for others reasons, then that's on you and how well your particular strategy works out.
 
If we don't end up green today, I don't know what to say.

SCTY gets $300M funding, so that should be a good thing.
AP Updates will make Teslas even more the safest cars on the road than they already were.
TSLA with its own $300M credit line from Deutsche Bank
AAPL backing out of the car space.
Merger recall pressure
and whatever else has slipped my mind?

I thought we might be dealing with some heavy macro headwinds this morning but it seems the downward pressure on futures has eased as the morning has gone on.
 
If we don't end up green today, I don't know what to say.

SCTY gets $300M funding, so that should be a good thing.
AP Updates will make Teslas even more the safest cars on the road than they already were.
TSLA with its own $300M credit line from Deutsche Bank
AAPL backing out of the car space.
Merger recall pressure
and whatever else has slipped my mind?
Also, they overstated debt in scty, actually SCTY is worth more...
 
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