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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I agree with everything you said (welcome back btw). Although I am suspect of the timing. I feel like all of it is cushioning in the event FY Guidance is not good. Regardless of the situation, we'll be stuck in this crazy limbo until next week.

Could be, but no guarantees. Two weeks before Q2 2015 TSLA was downgraded 3 times, one of which was the same guy from Pacific Crest, Brad Erickson. We went from 280 to 200 afterwards.

Two weeks before Q3 2015 TSLA was downgraded again by the same Brad Erickson. We went from 200 to 240 after.

No real consistency besides the fact that this Brad Erickson guy really likes to downgrade TSLA before earnings.
 
Could someone please clarify a point? Pacific Crest argues:
"Tesla's March-ending Model S promotional offer of 20% off the old lease cost continues, but we do not believe it has driven a noteworthy increase to sales."

I have heard it stated on this forum that the finance cost is down 20%, but Pacific Crest claims the least cost is down 20%. Who is right?
Thx
 
I'm buying at this stage (reluctantly)... A drop below $180 should be short lived (I hope)... I'm sure those qualifiers don't stir a lot of confidence in people but that's the point... I'm not confident in Tesla anymore. They make a great product, but a great product does not equal a great investment. Even though I have been around since 2013, I have been burned far too many times with the insane volatility of TSLA. I think it's reasonable to expect 1,500 Model X deliveries in Q1, anything more and you are asking for a huge red day. I suspect they will cite supplier parts as being the reason for a slow Model X ramp. The question becomes, how many Model S's can they sell in Q1 to make up for the lack of Model X sales... 12,000? 14,000? I have no clue... It all comes down to whether they re-assert guidence for FCF positive in Q1 next week.. If not, I suspect we drop no matter what price point we enter the earnings. If they re-assert FCF positive then we should recover some of the $100 loss... What does it take to be FCF positive? I honestly have no idea, I need to dig into it more. Can someone more experienced than me give me some ideas on what they think cash flows will look like for Q1.

Also, people need to stop getting their hopes up about Model 3... If you are expecting to see the car, and put down deposits in March, I suspect we will once again have a drop-on-the news event... I'm selling into the event if that's still the mood come March. I highly doubt they take deposits before September (at the earliest).
 
New 52 week low and looks like it's about to close at its lowest price in almost 24 months.. and this is all on short-term fears. Yes, the slow X ramp and low oil prices seem harmful to Tesla but I can't see these problems persisting and/or hurting the company's future ambitions. So many 2016 catalysts being completely ignored.. this is a buying opportunity if I've ever seen one..
 
I have felt this for weeks reluctantly stating we would probably touch 52 week low to complete the technical trend. Although I am in shock about the first 5 weeks of this market year I am not selling. The market is not being rational right now. A $15.50 drop on an analyst downgrade should be icing on the cake for anyone wishing to add here.
 
Yep. All shorts opened within 52 weeks are in the money. All the longs opened within 52 weeks are out of the money. So no short squeeze, but long squeeze.

Sorry but this statement is just nonsense. Tesla Motors Inc. is a Publicly Traded company, stock symbol TSLA. It is managed by a CEO and an Executive team with oversight from a Board of Directors for the benefit of its Shareholders. Specifically, its long term shareholders who expect to be paid eventually and handsomely in the form of Dividends.

Not Traders and speculators. Obviously not Short Sellers betting against the company.

You cannot squeeze a Shareholder.

To squeeze a short seller during a market disruption the correct strategy is simply to allow short sellers to to talk. No fiduciary duty is owed to correct them.

Every single underpinning of the short thesis at present is in error. I could list them out and this would become a megapost - demand, doors, oil, GM Bolt/competition in general, burning cash, profitability, GF partnerships, competing battery tech, valuation parity to auto stocks etc etc etc - all 100% wrong. If any if it was inverted as a reason to be long at a 52 week high it would be called juvenile hubris. Could Tesla correct all of those errors with PR releases? Yes. Absolutely.

Would that be in the best interests of long term shareholders? No. Absolutely not.

Talk is cheap. It's results will silence these idiots. That and product that theirs cannot compete with. That's right, more than half of the short thesis out there is frightened competitors bad-mouthing this company. Not analysis generated by competent traders.

The advantage a competent trader has with this stock is near absolute.

Buy when others are fearful. No need to take my word for it, investing alongside Musk will do equally well.
 
What is EM thinking when he pulls a stunt like this? Someone needs to remind him he is not in the minor leagues anymore:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...mad-he-might-revoke-your-tesla.html?ana=yahoo

Well, I am not saying this did not happen, but I just finished reading the article and oddly enough it did not finish with "we have reached out to Tesla, but they declined to comment". So, I would really like to see Tesla's or Elon's official reaction first.
 
WELP. Just increased core shares by 50% @ $181.50. Let's hope this is the last time I need to average down.

Regretting the shorter term options. Hoping for a little run before earnings to derisk a bit. I've overweighted a bit too much to TSLA recently.
 
What is EM thinking when he pulls a stunt like this? Someone needs to remind him he is not in the minor leagues anymore:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...mad-he-might-revoke-your-tesla.html?ana=yahoo

I work for a Fortune 15 company that has had a high-ish ranking manager bar a customer from receiving services/products in the future over complaints--nothing more. Apple refuses to coorporate with media who do not speak positively about events and products. Restaurants will routinely not serve people. Airlines will ban people from flights. I don't see what's wrong with that, it's quite common among all businesses.

You can be sure there was more to the story. People do not get barred from buying products lightly.
 
What is EM thinking when he pulls a stunt like this? Someone needs to remind him he is not in the minor leagues anymore:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...mad-he-might-revoke-your-tesla.html?ana=yahoo

I would like to say I'm surprised, but honestly having read Musk's biography I'm not... Tesla does have a serious customer relations problem, and they are f**king terrible at starting things on time. We might put up with it, but Model 3 owners sure as hell won't. They don't have much time to get their act together, and what I've seen so far doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
 
Sorry but this statement is just nonsense. Tesla Motors Inc. is a Publicly Traded company, stock symbol TSLA. It is managed by a CEO and an Executive team with oversight from a Board of Directors for the benefit of its Shareholders. Specifically, its long term shareholders who expect to be paid eventually and handsomely in the form of Dividends.

Not Traders and speculators. Obviously not Short Sellers betting against the company.

You cannot squeeze a Shareholder.

To squeeze a short seller during a market disruption the correct strategy is simply to allow short sellers to to talk. No fiduciary duty is owed to correct them.

Every single underpinning of the short thesis at present is in error. I could list them out and this would become a megapost - demand, doors, oil, GM Bolt/competition in general, burning cash, profitability, GF partnerships, competing battery tech, valuation parity to auto stocks etc etc etc - all 100% wrong. If any if it was inverted as a reason to be long at a 52 week high it would be called juvenile hubris. Could Tesla correct all of those errors with PR releases? Yes. Absolutely.

Would that be in the best interests of long term shareholders? No. Absolutely not.

Talk is cheap. It's results will silence these idiots. That and product that theirs cannot compete with. That's right, more than half of the short thesis out there is frightened competitors bad-mouthing this company. Not analysis generated by competent traders.

The advantage a competent trader has with this stock is near absolute.

Buy when others are fearful. No need to take my word for it, investing alongside Musk will do equally well.

Nothing which you said above refutes the fact, that stocks bought during the last 52 weeks are out of the money, stocks shorted in the same time period are in the money
 
I would like to say I'm surprised, but honestly having read Musk's biography I'm not... Tesla does have a serious customer relations problem, and they are f**king terrible at starting things on time. We might put up with it, but Model 3 owners sure as hell won't. They don't have much time to get their act together, and what I've seen so far doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Why would not Model 3 owners put up with it in the same way? I think they will, or if not the difference will be small. I don't count on Tesla changing the beta test/open communications/startup culture until after Model 3. And yes some customers will be pissed off, but they will still be able to sell all they can produce and 99% of customers will be satisfied when the last Model 3 of the first generation rolls of the line.

In general, don't assume things will change if there is no real indication it will happen.
 
In homage to groundhog day, the Punxsutawney bears are out in full force today, apparently not having seen their shadow. Today I must admit I am fearful but greed prevailed and bought $100 J18 call. I still beleive that this company will execute well. Model X delay is temporary. They have proven that they have the technical expertise to overcome this. All the other catalysts are lining up nicely and has not changed. I bought @$240 and thought it was a good price then. Now, macro issues aside, the thesis for why the stock is a good buy has not changed. So what to do? Double down, like Trump.
 
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