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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I find it hard to believe, that Elon would have directly lied about the first AP death.

I'm certain he didn't. Possibly there was no connection to the internet at the crash site, so the car didn't phone home. Also possible that the equipment that phones home was destroyed in the collision.

Another fatal Tesla crash reportedly on Autopilot emerges, Model S hits a streetsweeper truck – caught on dashcam

Electrek seems to have gotten a statement from Tesla that basically says the customer has been uncooperative in providing Tesla with access to the vehicle to check the logs manually.
 
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Couple things:
  • There are currently no shares to short on IB (not sure what to conclude since there were a bunch for at least the past couple days)
  • *********** (12:31:09 PM): *FORD SAYS SPENDING ON ELECTRIC CARS BIGGEST CUT TO PROFITS
    • *FORD SAYS SAFETY, ENVIRONMENTAL RULES TO DRAG ON BUSINESS
    • *FORD SAYS CASH FLOW TO DECLINE 2016-18, REMAIN POSITIVE
    • FORD MOTOR CFO SAYS COMPANY EXPECTS "SUBSTANTIAL HEADWINDS" FROM HIGHER COMMODITY COSTS IN 2017 IN NORTH AMERICA
 
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I might have missed it, but I didn't see any reference to 8.0 AP handling the partial lane blocked events in the recent blog.

I assume they were talking about this change helping: "Now controls for two cars ahead using radar echo, improving cut-out response and reaction time to otherwise-invisible heavy braking events"

I don't know if the partial lane blocked events are mainly a problem when the "lead" car moves out of the way, or if it is a problem even if nobody was in front of you the whole time.

I sure hope they handle this type of situation better.
 
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It sure is curious how 9 month old stories find their way into the media at a time when a downward SP trend is beginning to reverse.

Yes, I look at the timing of these things as being far from coincidental. A reversal of TSLA's trading from negative to positive for at least a couple days in a row is hugely important because many buyers stay away when TSLA is on a downtrend and shorts get nervous and tend to close positions when TSLA is on an uptrend. A burst of short-selling can be used to spoil a positive reversal, but that option is no longer available, and there's only so many negative stories in the quiver. I would say that the timing of the Chanos appearance on CNBC was no coincidence either. If the macros stay reasonable, TSLA has a fighting chance to string a few green days together in a row. With less than 3 weeks left before Q3 delivery numbers are released, the start of a steady climb for TSLA could become self-propelling.

Edit: I think the current low volume can be explained by buyers sitting on the fence, at present, waiting for confirmation of a reversal of this long but slow downtrend, longs not particularly inclined to sell because they think we're close to the bottom, and shorts delaying their covering (either for recall or expectations of Q3 delivery numbers) because they think there might be more decline available before the reversal. All of these things change once you string a few green days together in a row.
 
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I assume they were talking about this change helping: "Now controls for two cars ahead using radar echo, improving cut-out response and reaction time to otherwise-invisible heavy braking events"

I don't know if the partial lane blocked events are mainly a problem when the "lead" car moves out of the way, or if it is a problem even if nobody was in front of you the whole time.

I sure hope they handle this type of situation better.
Good catch. Thanks! I think this feature should prevent such accidents.
 
It sure is curious how 9 month old stories find their way into the media at a time when a downward SP trend is beginning to reverse.

This is just bizarre for this to have not leaked earlier. For reference that china AP fender bender the other month hit social media within hours and was widely reported globally in the following days. Even non AP fatalities involving a tesla would be noticed...?
 
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This is just bizarre for this to have not leaked earlier. For reference that china AP fender bender the other month hit social media within hours and was widely reported globally in the following days.

On the plus side, I think people have become a bit more numb to these incidents. The first one understandably made the rounds, but I'm betting this one won't have nearly the same legs.
 
I might have missed it, but I didn't see any reference to 8.0 AP handling the partial lane blocked events in the recent blog.
It will handle this, the whole update is pretty much to handle these sorts of situations. Stationary objects close to the road will be detected by the radar, and compared to a white list. If the object isn't on the white list, and other autopilot-equipped cars have mapped the road in question sufficiently, emergency auto-braking will engage.

The autobraking will however work better when in autopilot-mode, as the car knows that this is an object that is in the path of the car. In manual mode, the car will wait until a collision is imminent before taking action, as it doesn't know if the driver is planning on avoiding the object. At that point, stopping may not be an option, it may only be able to reduce the velocity by some amount before impact.
 
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I find it hard to believe, that Elon would have directly lied about the first AP death.

I thought so too, but with no black box data there is no way to say it was an AP death. People are starting to die in the ever larger fleet and there is a distinction between definitely AP enabled accidents and all others.

I think people do need to be firmly educated on AP. I think that this guy and Joshua might well have thought "oh look a vehicle in my path. it will be really cool when A/P stops me and I can post the video on youtube". The message needs to be A/P is just for routine driving period. If you have any doubt whatsoever that the situation is dangerous take control. ASSUME the A/P will not stop you". It is a labor saving luxury, not self-driving.
 
There is really low volume today, almost feels like suspiciously low. Something unusual going on.


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I'm most curious to see if we see a new trading pattern develop today. I want to see if we see the best trading of the day taking place in the last hour before close. That would be a confirming signal that shorts are indeed covering. We saw that pattern yesterday on a red down. Now let's see if it happens today on a green day.
 
The Tesla SolarCity merger is the first event of this type that I've watched closely. I don't think I've seen any specifics about the number of ways the deal could conceivably not go through, or how possible or likely thatthe terms might change before the vote. I don't see how the terms could be made worse for SolarCity since Tesla's offer would have formed the basis of the shop-around period. Does anyone have a good handle on this and would like to share?

On the other side, if the deal is going to happen I'm wondering how early we might start to see the SCTY/.11 number start to move closer to TSLA's share price. I'm thinking one predictor might be whether or not we see Elon make another public pitch for the deal. If ballots go out and we haven't seen a pre-vote pitch for the deal it probably means they already have the votes they need (or that it's already a lost cause, which seems unlikely). So I'm curious to see how much more of a public effort is made to sell the merger idea to investors. I'm also guessing that SolarCity is on a push to make they're Q3 numbers look good, as a higher SCTY price will make the deal look more attractive to TSLA shareholders. Last quarter they pre-announced their earnings shortly after the qtr end. I bet they do the same this qtr if their results are any good. Does anyone have any idea how Q3 is shaping up for Solar City?
 
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