Gerardf
Active Member
Looks a bit like something is happening. we are going up towards 209 
+ 1.2 % while nasdaq is red.
+ 1.2 % while nasdaq is red.
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andrewt3000
Member
racer26
Active Member
I agree with the others that it certainly doesn't seem like TSLA is concerned that the merger won't go through. Hiring someone on 300k salary and 5M in options, and announcing a joint product unveiling are not things you would do if you had any doubt the merger might flop.
Hopefully the market sees this too and starts closing the arbitrage gap.
Hopefully the market sees this too and starts closing the arbitrage gap.
Many traders convinced they knew more than the boards of Tesla and SCTY combined are beginning to understand that their emotion-driven bets on the SCTY merger to fall through are going to fail. Not only will the merger complete sucessfully, it now appears that it will add significant value and will in the end result in a more well-integrated combined company, better positioned to capture even more of the growing solar, storage and BEV markets.
Last one out's a rotten egg.
Last one out's a rotten egg.
I am glad you said this. I am bullish due to Q3 results, but if anything this recall issue seems to be bad for the stock not good. If there was pressure to recall shares it would have been visible as a runup in the price. Even worse, if there is evidence of some substantial recalls and the price is flat, that means that longs must be getting out to balance it out. So if the record date was announced to be today, "recall theory" predicts the stock would plunge since many more shares would be available to short.
I hope someone smarter than me is indeed gaming the date. The scenario you lay out is awesome and good for TSLA investors but Elon has not shown a lot of interest in gaming things for us lately.
If a secondary offering is coming in the next couple of months, i dont think Elon wants a stock price plunge.
Thanks for the article. Nicely written. Do you have a timeline on AP 2.0 release?
The closest hint I have seen from Elon is during the re-code interview where he said Tesla is going to do the obvious thing and have an event towards the end of the year.
SCTY is going up more rapidly than TSLA and within a 10 min. period, by eyeball estimate, from 1.00 % (absolute) to 2% difference.
Gerardf
Active Member
Well, this time he did clearly imply he would like to see a good SP the rest of the year. He might not be against jumpstarting that move up by timing things, like timing Q3 deliveries and cashflow. Timing of the Oct 28 announcement and the new hire was most likely also not a coincidence.
racer26
Active Member
Currently SCTY up 3% and climbing, TSLA up 1.67% and climbing. SCTY is indeed closing the gap, though the gap remains quite large:
SCTY @ 19.29 at time of writing / 0.11 exchange ratio = still like buying TSLA for $175.36
The arbitrage deal of the year is closing soon.
Geez my large purchase of SCTY at $17.08 is shaping up to be one of my better market timings.
racer26
Active Member
Getting pretty tempted to trade even more of my TSLA position for SCTY than I already have over the last couple weeks.
Maybe this time it will be different. At the beginning of the year the great "Down then UP" theory held that Elon and Wheeler were going to game the year for us-- pushing bad news into earlier quarters and blowing out Q3 for the purpose of causing easier cap raises. Then they did cap raises anyway and blew out the theory, since if he was preparing this move there was no logical reason to do the raises with the lower stock price. Perhaps the theory is ready for a renaissance.
stealthology
Member
After the record date, insti's can lend their shares out again. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Can we realistically expect a sizable amount of insti's to start lending their shares again right after the record date? Opinions?
Can we realistically expect a sizable amount of insti's to start lending their shares again right after the record date? Opinions?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Elon and JB have said that the best way to recycle cells is to use the materials in the cells to make new cells, optimized for the specific application. If Tesla's packs made with new materials cost them $90 per kWh and the majority of the cost is the materials (JB said that their cell costs are essentially the materials costs) then cells made from recycled cells would have to cost less than ~$30 per kWh. BMW on the other hand is looking at pack costs where the materials are a much smaller percentage of the overall costs. It's the same reason that they think that PHEV's are the only way they can compete.
I used $90 per kWh as a pack cost because I'm very confident that Tesla's cost will be substantially less than that by the end of 2017. Thanks DaveT whose skepticism prompted my analysis!
Corner cases have nothing to do with Tesla's decision to emphasize radar over cameras. The problem with cameras is that they can't always "see". Through snow, or rain, at night or with glare (which is the problem they had in Texas). Tesla's current solution has a weakness. What happens when there's a truck broken down under a sign that you're programmed to ignore?
Corner cases do present an extremely high hurdle for deep learning. Elon specifically mentioned that problem when he talked about the reasons he didn't believe that it's possible for Hotz to beat Tesla's system, What do you you do if you have a choice between driving off the road and running over a small child? How many miles do you need to have the situation present itself enough times for the system to learn the desired behavior? That doesn't even seem like an extremely rare corner case, but have you ever been confronted with that choice? What about if going off the road means going off a cliff?
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