Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

After the recourse date, insti's can lend their shares out again. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Can we realistically expect a sizable amount of insti's to start lending their shares again right after the record date? Opinions?

Yes, if they have advance knowledge of the record date.

Its possible the record date is already in the past and just hasn't been published yet. Do you want to risk it by lending your shares out again now since TSLA/SCTY said record date would be this week? Maybe it won't be till some other day in the future.

Even if they dump a bunch of shortable shares - do the shorts want to use them with good 3Q16 numbers imminent?

 

[Quesder]

Do know it is posted here or not, excuse me.
How do you guys see this article which says rich people prefer the established premium brands than Tesla?

Tesla Motors: Losing Its Edge?

 

[JBRR]

This really is a must read for anyone looking for a complete investment thesis in TSLA.

Tesla Disrupts Different - Introduction

 

[Turing]

If a secondary offering is coming in the next couple of months, i dont think Elon wants a stock price plunge.

Yep. Elon usually doesn't care about the month to month SP. The exception to this in the past has been in the 2-3 months leading up to a cap raise...

 

[tander]

Can someone explain why using recycled packs for energy storage "doesn't make economic sense"? I know JB/Elon have said it but I don't understand it from them either. It costs money to recycle and reuse the battery materials. It costs virtually nothing to just plug them into a sort of rack system designed for that. You can imagine, inside the GF, a big rack in the air conditioned interior where they just hook up the power and coolant loops. Who cares if the capacity is 80%, or 60 or 20% for that matter? Presumably they plan to use their own product in the Fremont and Sparks factories. What more cost effective solution than recycled materials?

I'm thinking it doesn't make sense in the sense that they sell batteries, so recycling them isn't really in the interest of selling more.

Many traders convinced they knew more than the boards of Tesla and SCTY combined are beginning to understand that their emotion-driven bets on the SCTY merger to fall through are going to fail. Not only will the merger complete sucessfully, it now appears that it will add significant value and will in the end result in a more well-integrated combined company, better positioned to capture even more of the growing solar, storage and BEV markets.

Last one out's a rotten egg.

I wonder how many naysayers realize Musk basically founded and controls TSLA and SCTY already and has probably been planning this merger for like ten years.That makes the odds of the merger quite a bit better than most mergers IMO.

 

[larmor]

Do know it is posted here or not, excuse me.
How do you guys see this article which says rich people prefer the established premium brands than Tesla?

Tesla Motors: Losing Its Edge?

While the survey suggests that premium brands are preferred, another metric is to see sales of model s vs. S class & 7 series, and to understand if the premium brands are experiencing growth, steady state, or decline.

Another interesting metric which will come is model x vs. cayenne, more data will be available by the end of the year.

 

[Turing]

Maybe this time it will be different. At the beginning of the year the great "Down then UP" theory held that Elon and Wheeler were going to game the year for us-- pushing bad news into earlier quarters and blowing out Q3 for the purpose of causing easier cap raises. Then they did cap raises anyway and blew out the theory, since if he was preparing this move there was no logical reason to do the raises with the lower stock price. Perhaps the theory is ready for a renaissance.

Or the mx 'production hell' of 1H made it impossible. And it was noted that tesla turned down additional funding offers (left money on the table) during this lower cap raise of 1h. So why would Elon leave money on the table in 1h cap raise? Maybe he expects to get a lot more for his equity on the next one?

 

[Papafox]

After the recourse date, insti's can lend their shares out again. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Can we realistically expect a sizable amount of insti's to start lending their shares again right after the record date? Opinions?

This is a very good question. Typically, I think institutions such as Fidelity would make the shares available to short pretty quickly, in order to avoid being perceived as gaming the stock and manipulating the market. On the other hand, it is clearly in the benefit of the various Fidelity Funds that the shares not be made available next week, especially in consideration that the performance of those funds for the month and quarter will be adversely affected by releasing the shares for shorting. Thus, there are reasons why the institutions could go either way.

 

[trils0n]

What happens when there's a truck broken down under a sign that you're programmed to ignore?

Probably will detect the truck, as it will have a different radar signature than the sign the car is programmed to ignore at that location. Location + signature. Not simply any signature at that location is a-ok.

 

[AlMc]

This is a very good question. Typically, I think institutions such as Fidelity would make the shares available to short pretty quickly, in order to avoid being perceived as gaming the stock and manipulating the market. On the other hand, it is clearly in the benefit of the various Fidelity Funds that the shares not be made available next week, especially in consideration that the performance of those funds for the month and quarter will be adversely affected by releasing the shares for shorting. Thus, there are reasons why the institutions could go either way.

In the scenario you are discussing: IF shorts are willing to pay high interest rates the institutions will lend them.

 

[uselesslogin]

Do know it is posted here or not, excuse me.
How do you guys see this article which says rich people prefer the established premium brands than Tesla?

Tesla Motors: Losing Its Edge?

Well, for starters I haven't heard of a premium EV that will be out in 2018 when the Model 3 should be coming off the line. So it isn't like the consumer that wants a premium EV at the time will be able to choose the established brand. Second, by the time the established brands come out with theirs I think they will add to the size of the EV market, not take away from the absolute numbers Tesla sells. Finally the conservative buyer might actually see Tesla as the conservative choice by 2019/2020 when the established brands are releasing their first version of long range quick charging EVs.

 

[tander]

Do know it is posted here or not, excuse me.
How do you guys see this article which says rich people prefer the established premium brands than Tesla?

Tesla Motors: Losing Its Edge?

I like Barron's , especially regarding things that aren't new. But with new things (tech, Tesla, etc.) that's like asking my Grandpa about social media platforms. "Rich" people tend to be older people, and older people tend not to like change very much, so I think they tend to stick with things they understand, rather than these new crazy electric cars that catch on fire, have low demand, etc. The model s is pretty much the best all around car you can buy right now, competition isn't going to suddenly make it obsolete.

 

[dha]

Data Point:

 

[MitchJi]

After the recourse date, insti's can lend their shares out again. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Can we realistically expect a sizable amount of insti's to start lending their shares again right after the record date? Opinions?

We can expect the institutions to start loaning the shares out, that they recalled immediately. Why wouldn't they minimize there loss of interest income. The question is what percent of the shares they obtained to vote were recalled and what percent were purchased. They'd be idiots to sell the purchased shares sooner than the Q3 ER-CC unless there's a huge squeeze before then. The Q3 numbers in October plus the TE Solar Roof reveal could trigger that.

 

[tander]

We can expect the institutions to start loaning the shares out, that they recalled immediately. Why wouldn't they minimize there loss of interest income. The question is what percent of the shares they obtained to vote were recalled and what percent were purchased. They'd be idiots to sell the purchased shares sooner than the Q3 ER-CC unless there's a huge squeeze before then. The Q3 numbers in October plus the TE Solar Roof reveal could trigger that.

Yeah maybe that's the real question. After the vote, and presumably a good 3q and a big cap raise, how many are still going to be able to find reasons to go short? How many of those long-term shorts (the bulk of shorts) will finally be forced to cover?

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to Jeff Evanson Tesla's IR VP, the record date is today - just got a response to my question via e-mail.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Watching lending interest rate after hours today and before the open on Monday is essential. Sudden drop to single digits would indicate that recalled shares are becoming available for shorting starting Monday. If interest stays high, the shares are not readily available for shorting.

 

[AlMc]

According to Jeff Evanson Tesla's IR VP, the record date is today - just got a response to my question via e-mail.

Thanks!!

 

[stealthology]

Data Point:View attachment 195712 View attachment 195713

According to Jeff Evanson Tesla's IR VP, the record date is today - just got a response to my question via e-mail.

Putting one and one together.. is it possible we just had a record date pop? Probably not related, idk. Relieved that the record date happened today-- I want this deal to close in Q4 ASAP for my SCTY J17's

Edit: 0 shares avail to short all day today at IB, rate back up to 107%.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There are currently zero shares available for shorting at Fidelity, with interest rate steady at 25%.