Chickenlittle
Banned
So many posts have been rumors or statement from store employees. Almost always inaccurate
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Actually, I'd say store employees usually have a decent idea on order rate from their own store. Sure, this is just a small piece in the bigger picture, but if you pull 20 stores together it does tell a story. If there's a better way to gain insight on MX order rate (vs MS order rate), would love to hear it.
That is the question indeed - my spidey-sense is mute on this one. What do you think? I'm leaning towards buying a little more SCTY now before the SCTY/.11 <--> TSLA gap closes further. Thoughts? PMs welcome!
I am thinking that if TSLA didn't tank today it isn't going to due to recall theory (the idea that a rush of new shares available would cause a temporary drop). But then, the new shares don't seem to be showing up for some reason.
I am going heavier into SCTY for arb.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I saw it as much ado about nothing, regardless of the outcome. It's a minor issue that was settled, should have little to no effect on TSLA.
so I decided to check out seekingalpha to see what the shorts are thinking and read Montana Skeptic's posting. I must say that his read of the Hoerbiger lawsuit is interesting.
Anyone have any details about the settlement? We'll know more on Oct 4th, but I'm curious if there are any leaks anywhere?
My contrarian take is that the settlement terms wouldn't be announced, even by Musk, because that's generally the purpose of those Non-Disclosure clauses! Especially since the final terms were still being hammered out. However, I don't think Tesla got anything out of it other than getting Hoerbiger's claims thrown out. So the win is that Tesla doesn't have to pay anything.
So although we can interpret MS as doing us a favor (by winding the spring even tighter and drawing more shorts in thinking that Hoerbiger won), the actual result would probably be meh and completely dependent on Q3 delivery results.
Not sure how to interpret the Oct 4th meeting of the conditions though.
Hearing has slipped to October 20. CALENDAR
Tesla is just getting started with X. Almost all, if not all of the demo stock in US has been sold. A lot of X buyers are holding off for the 5 passenger in anticipation of folding seats, including me.
racer26
Active Member
My take on the Hoerbiger suit is simple: One of the terms of the settlement is tied to the number of X's sold in Q3, which can't be known until then.
In other good news, SCTY seems to be flirting with the $20 mark. Closing the arb gap significantly.
The reason why Kallo is giving a $25 price target for SCTY is because the time frame considered is shorter than the time frame considered for TSLA's target. Kallo is looking at about a year timeframe for his TSLA target and about a 2 month timeframe for his SCTY target.
Edit: A $25 SCTY target at time of merger in 2 months equates to TSLA at $227 come merger time if you divide $25 by .11.
This is mildly interesting, not because a ton of people listen to Trip, but because he is usually wildly optimistic about Tesla - including quarterly deliveries - and his # is 22k for Q3. Be nice if he is on the conservative side for a change.
Tesla Motors Almost Always Disappoints on Deliveries. Is This Time Different?
Tesla Motors Almost Always Disappoints on Deliveries. Is This Time Different?
mmd
Active Member
I'd be careful reading too much into these anecdotal evidences of end-of-quarter rush deliveries. I recall a poster @Scott Allles , who got burnt pretty badly by getting too excited with the anecdotes thrown at him by Tesla store employees. Lost a ton of money and left this forum for good. We have seen these tents pop up every quarter end.
Perpetual bull Trip Chowdhury flaming the fires doesn't help much.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ugh. Yeah, he's always wildly optimistic.
The problem is 22k deliveries is MY guess too... great, now I AM the "village idiot"..
PaulRocket
Member
Tesla Energy won another energy storage contract for 34MWh. Seems like they're really ramping up production!
Tesla and AMS win another major energy storage contract, 34 MWh of battery capacity for water treatment facilities
Tesla and AMS win another major energy storage contract, 34 MWh of battery capacity for water treatment facilities
Agree be nice to get some differ geographical data points. I'm just outside of Chicago so one would expect a higher MX mix. Just in general I see a high SUV mix even though owners are penalized with a gas guzzling SUV setup. If I'm in the market for MS or MX it's an easy decision to go with MX. More cargo capacity, higher driving vantage point, safer, and FWD (it's why I'm paying a premium for luxury right? I would make sure everyone and their mother know I paid $$$ for this baby) all in a package that's has minor range penalty.
22k was my estimate, before Tesla threw caution to the wind and started selling everything that wasn't nailed down. Right now I'd be disappointed if the figure is below 24k.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Plus:
Here in Europe the X is just beginning to show up. Lots of orders that have not been fulfilled. Because of batching of geographic regions I expect an above average percentage of the Oct and Nov production will be shipped here.
Either he thinks there will be something like 9k in transit at the end of q3. Or he didn't bother doing the basic arithmetic here.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
With 30 minutes to go TSLA looks great
Just enrolled my shares in Fidelity lending program. Love to give shorts more rope to hang self with
Make no mistakes, TSLA goes much higher from here. The more my stock appreciates the more interest I extract from shorts it's a win win sounds like at the current interest rate I could hypothetically buy myself at least 3 Model S P 100 D within a year if not more
Love it
Just enrolled my shares in Fidelity lending program. Love to give shorts more rope to hang self with
Make no mistakes, TSLA goes much higher from here. The more my stock appreciates the more interest I extract from shorts it's a win win sounds like at the current interest rate I could hypothetically buy myself at least 3 Model S P 100 D within a year if not more
Love it
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