MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Nothing to do with the vote. The big institutions, who will decide the outcome are not worried about positve news to make their decisions.
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Tomorrow at 1PM PDT we will be discussing the latest Tesla Shareholder Meeting on the TMC Podcast. You can watch live on YouTube or X and participate in the chat.
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The short sellers cannot push down the market continuously. TSLA is underperforming since months. Within the last 6 months, there have been three fundamental changes which the market now also realizes:
- Competitors will follow TSLA and produce high volume EV cars, this will have direct influence on TSLA profits, probably EM calculations never will become reality
- TSLA Autopilot is no unique selling feature anymore, probably won't be again in the future, there is no substantial technical lead
- TSLA Management takes unforeseeable risks (Solar City)
I know, I have to keep telling myself over and over this stock price is not a reflection of how the company is doing. Gotta keep the spirits up!
And in all seriousness I don't believe Tesla has ever announced an earnings date within a week of quarter end. I'm hoping Elon really wants this one out there and that is why it is early and announced early.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I could imagine EM did not like the WS delivery beat reaction.
Model X ramp (with Model S production interfering) was the big issue he was personally involved in and working on for months. I bet after spending quite some time at the factory in his sleeping bag he did not appreciate the appreciation. He is angry. He is right. He is best at times when he is on a mission to defend his baby.
Model X ramp (with Model S production interfering) was the big issue he was personally involved in and working on for months. I bet after spending quite some time at the factory in his sleeping bag he did not appreciate the appreciation. He is angry. He is right. He is best at times when he is on a mission to defend his baby.
Not going to waste much time on these ridiculous points.
1. ORLY? Please show me how they plan on doing so. Hint: it's going to require a lot of batteries, those lithium ion ones.
2. Please show me a competitor with a better system. No, no, no. I mean an ACTUAL working system, not a press release. Thanks.
3. Some think it's a risk, others (like the ones with the most inside knowledge) call it a no-brainer. Time will tell.
1. Pretty soon they will realize Tesla has cornered the market for cheap energy-dense batteries (at least until 2020-2025), and Tesla is the only company that's in a position to put a dent in the demand.
2. Tesla has the best product currently on the market. And with billions of miles of real life driving data (and growing), Tesla is in a unique position to maintain their head start. The competition likely will catch up, but again, we're probably talking about 2020-2025 at the earliest.
3. I think it will be blatantly obvious that Tesla Energy and Solar City is an extremely good match after the 28th.
I noticed earlier today, before the announcement, that the 10/28 calls were significantly higher than the 10/21 calls. So shady.
1. Competitors have been producing high volume CAR cars for literally a hundred years. And yet Tesla is beating them at their own game (in the markets where Tesla competes).
2. Not sure what you are smoking. Can I have some?
3. Yes. That's why we love them. And some of those risks may flop, but won't take down the company.
I have never bought Tesla below 200, while since last year we often hover around 19X. And that is why I couldn't make money because I would not be satisfied on selling at 22X. Now at this $196.5 point maybe I should be more brave. I bought at $200.84 yesterday and feel sucks.
Funny how that works. Considering the 10/28 TE event is after market close, whoever drove up the option prices couldn't even plausibly argue that the event drove up the premium. Very shady. Whole system feels even more rigged than usual lately, ha.
- You can be sure that also other companies are able to deliver these as sub-suppliers. The common sense tells that TSLA will not be the only one capable of doing this, even in this vast amount. Even if other car companies should need to build own factories, which I don't believe will be necessary, then they could do it minimum in the same speed than TSLA.
- Check out the Drive Pilot by Mercedes.
- Yes, time will tell.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Jay, there are two components to shorts creating new positions: availability of shares to short and the likelihood of profits. Obviously, there have been some big players still in the shorting game. The big fall in prices Wednesday late afternoon was likely the result of a tip-off that Goldman was going to release a bearish note on Thursday morning. So, we likely have some smart, big players in the shorting business yet, guys like Chanos who have undoubtedly been communicating with each other and who received advanced word about the Goldman note, and we have the chump shorts, small players selling in because Chanos and others are in effect saying, "Tesla's going to $0, come and get your easy money. It doesn't matter what you sell in at because TSLA is going down!" I suspect the smart shorts will be getting out shortly and the chump shorts, who have been sold a lie, and going to be left holding the bag. I'd love to know how many short shares Chanos holds going into the 3Q ER.
Tesla is going to run out of chumps to short-sell into new positions at these prices before they run out of shares to short. The moving up of the 3Q ER to late October is likely confirmation that Tesla has news to share which is considerably better than what is expected by the market.
This final half hour of trading today could be interesting. Market makers have incentive to pull the stock up to 197.50. Some smart shorts may be getting out before the bell and some longs may be getting in, with the expectations that the amateur hour jump up on Monday morning will signal the low for this dip. The person who bought 2,000 puts that expire today, half of them at 197.50, will be trying to rally his buddies into a dip at the end. I can't call this horserace at the moment.
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I'm looking at depreciation a bit differently. We can't be sure how Tesla will depreciate the Gigafactory (unless I've missed them telling us), but a pretty obvious method for the Gigafactory would be on a per unit basis. See this example:
Cost: $5,000,000,000
Annual Production (GWh) 35
Annual Production (kWh) 35,000,000
Life of Factory 10
Total kWh Production 350,000,000
Per unit depreciation $14.29
You can tinker with the formula all you want, but even assuming a life of the factory of only 5 years and reducing annual production to 20 GWh (pretty low assumptions), it only raises the per unit cost to $50 kWh. Of course, annual production could be much higher and that would lower costs further.
Tesla alternatively could depreciate simply on the basis of time (as you've assumed). In fact, that is how Tesla depreciates its existing property and equipment (30 years for the property and 3-12 years for the equipment). I think here's how that would work (using your example) -- I think you may have an error in your calculation, but I admit that I might too.
Cost: $1.2 billion
Per Half Depreciation (10 years at $30 million/quarter): $60 million
2017 1H Production: 1,250,000 kWh
Depreciation per unit: $48
Either way, depreciation is not that big of a deal and completely manageable. If they choose straight line, you can see they are keeping prices so high for the time being. As they ramp, they automatically cut depreciation/unit and then they can lower prices by the same amount of decreased depreciation and even raise their profit margin.
The above per unit example is still helpful, as it helps show how depreciation works on a per unit basis and therefore the outer limits of how much extra pricing power they can find. If Tesla decides to do straight-line depreciation, the good news is that later years will have hardly any depreciation on per unit basis and as a result profitability would be much higher.
(Obviously, estimates of profitability of TE can matter a whole lot in the short term, so I'm glad we're keeping this conversation going).
Obviously, gigantic factories are required to make that volume of batteries. Do you see any others anywhere? Do you think they can pop up overnight? BTW, Tesla is working as fast as possible to bring theirs online, so there's no real ability to catch up - just an opportunity to stop falling further behind, assuming "competitors" get started right now and work at Tesla's pace. What happens to their ICE lines if all of the above happens and customers make the obvious choice that EVs are superior? Things that make you go hmmmm.
Drive Pilot? Is that the thing in the current E Class? Doesn't even matter, every single independent head to head test has shown AP to be far superior. Nothing is even close right now. Also, see above re: development speed. Tesla is working lights out on this one too. There's no opportunity to catch up, just an opportunity to stop the lead from widening if they can match Tesla's pace.
Why could that not be equally someone who bought "insurance" last week before the 3Q16 deliveries were announced?
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