Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

Wow. Some people are saying "Why build now... they have two years", as if you can build an entire production line in a few days/months. And here you say "There's not enough time to build a warehouse!". Half of Fremont is currently storing either parts or incomplete inventory, and all they need to do is move it all somewhere else, and they can start building a production line.

Totally agree with your point.

We must also keep a level head and ask Tesla what they are doing to assure investors they can smoothly deliver the flood of Model 3 cars that will begin towards the end of next year and will certainly be in full swing by mid-2018. That's less than two years away. There needs to be a huge amount of construction/purchasing/remodelling going on across dozens of sites - in the USA alone - to avoid a total meltdown at the current community of Tesla delivery centers, many of which are melting down right now, and that's without the increasing deliveries of S+X that will occur over the next 18 months. Haven't seen anything to track this expansion. (perhaps TMC could have a service/delivery construction tracker the same way that we lovingly track Supercharger permitting and construction)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Up more than 2% during early trading in Germany.

 

[Rarity]

Wow. Some people are saying "Why build now... they have two years", as if you can build an entire production line in a few days/months. And here you say "There's not enough time to build a warehouse!". Half of Fremont is currently storing either parts or incomplete inventory, and all they need to do is move it all somewhere else, and they can start building a production line.

In order to produce 500k in 2018, they don't have two years to hit 500k run rate. More like 1.25 years. And they aren't done with the process at the city council. Sounds tight for the 500,000 capacity that the city references.

 

[MitchJi]

i can't wait to find out in about 8 hours how TSLA trades in premarket in AM
i suspect we will have a major UP day tomorrow.

seems to me Elon's tweets today should get off a furious rally tomorrow
i can't wait to find out

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that Elon's tweets will have a big impact on the SP.

 

[Papafox]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that Elon's tweets will have a big impact on the SP.

I think the really important thing about Elon's tweets is to break the cycle of shorts selling into TSLA because it is going down and it going down because shorts are selling in. It's time to decouple selling from the available supply of shares to short, and the timing of Elon's tweets is just right to suit that purpose.

 

[Matias]

i put that idiot on ignore few days ago

All this ban-drama is rather lame imho. I have a scroll wheel in my mouse.

 

[schonelucht]

It's obvious to anyone not trying to twist the language like a contortionist that something has fundamentally changed with the cash position. He essentially put off raising cash for 6 months during the most capital intensive period of the company's lifecycle. Something's up.

Something changed in two days that they went from planning to raise capital to saying they won't. I can get on board with that idea.

 

[Seesaw]

Something changed in two days that they went from planning to raise capital to saying they won't. I can get on board with that idea.

Maybe slower Model 3 rollout?

 

[Jayjs20]

Market just opened and it's 201.1 or +4.49.

So yes, maybe no effect on the SP!

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Market just opened and it's 201.1 or +4.49.

So yes, maybe no effect on the SP!

Now 202+, but it's very early trading and very little volume always. The big boys come about 1h before market open so plenty of time to go still.

 

[Mike Smith]

In order to produce 500k in 2018, they don't have two years to hit 500k run rate. More like 1.25 years. And they aren't done with the process at the city council. Sounds tight for the 500,000 capacity that the city references.

Elon has only said they'd reach a 500k run rate in 2018, not that they'd produce 500k.

 

[RobStark]

Elon has only said they'd reach a 500k run rate in 2018, not that they'd produce 500k.

In the past he has said run rates exiting the years 2014 and 2015. But Elon said 500k cars in 2018. And ~900k in 2020. Multiple sources have quoted him on this.

Tesla puts pedal to the metal, 500,000 cars planned in 2018

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Now up more than 3% during early trading in Germany.

 

[Mike Smith]

In the past he has said run rates exiting the years 2014 and 2015. But Elon said 500k cars in 2018. And ~900k in 2020. Multiple sources have quoted him on this.

Tesla puts pedal to the metal, 500,000 cars planned in 2018

I've seen reporters get this wrong repeatedly. I think some of them may be trying to falsely create higher expectations. Every time Elon says it he says run rate or production rate. Here is the first time he says it at the Q1 earnings call: (go to 2:12).

 

[Seesaw]

So what are the theories around the sudden stopping of a capital raise, possibly pursuing a debt facility instead?

 

[Ulmo]

Totally agree with your point.

We must also keep a level head and ask Tesla what they are doing to assure investors they can smoothly deliver the flood of Model 3 cars that will begin towards the end of next year and will certainly be in full swing by mid-2018. That's less than two years away. There needs to be a huge amount of construction/purchasing/remodelling going on across dozens of sites - in the USA alone - to avoid a total meltdown at the current community of Tesla delivery centers, many of which are melting down right now, and that's without the increasing deliveries of S+X that will occur over the next 18 months. Haven't seen anything to track this expansion. (perhaps TMC could have a service/delivery construction tracker the same way that we lovingly track Supercharger permitting and construction)

Self-delivering cars.

Honestly, I don't know Tesla's prediction about if self-delivery is available during M3 ramp to replace Tesla Store delivery roles, but I actually assume Tesla plans self-delivery* within years and is banking on not needing full-bore auto delivery store channels. If they have timing trouble, they could just deliver in rented parking lots in tents for a while before self-delivery is fully implemented. They already tent deliver at Fremont factory.

Due to Tesla Energy and initial Tesla Auto sales needs, I suspect Tesla wishes to have a robust store network relative to their future customer size, so like you, I expect to see buildout, unless they're building a smartphone app to order Model 3's & giving a discount for ordering in the app and a bigger discount for also installing solar and home battery at the same time, offsetting physical store needs, but that doesn't fit their sales model.

* PayPal employed similar concepts.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Consider using Margin Calculator to see if you can buy OTM puts to reduce you margin exposure and eliminate the Margin Call. Depending on your position buying far OTM puts can be all that is required to satisfy the margin call, especially if there is expectation of SP moving up. I've been there and done so on many occasions - it could really help for a very nominal amount spent on the puts.

Thanks!
I just checked my account and my margin call went away! Cool!
Appreciate your input

 

[TrendTrader007]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that Elon's tweets will have a big impact on the SP.

Why not?

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA stock price is bound to react positively today as well as over the next several days to weeks
Why would it not? Elon just states that no capital raise required for next 2 quarters which is hugely positive
Plus new product announcements on 17th and 28th
Plus earlier release of q3 ER on 26th
To think that SP will not react positively indicates a divorce from reality
I believe that last week was the bottom with that idiotic call by GS analyst and we go up from here
I'm thrilled that I have no more margin call and for me nothing but pedal to the metal with my 120% long TSLA exposure (plus j 18 calls which sadly are down 70% currently but may run up starting today)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Will Tesla be the next apple?
Forbes article just published today by Gene Marcial
Guys! Read it