TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA if this stock returns 30% for next 8 years it will be a $1600 stock
I'm loading up like there is no tomorrow
I'm loading up like there is no tomorrow
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Since you were already at 120% (by your own admission) what are you "loading up" to? 150%? 200%?
Conditions have to be right for the equity raise. In particular, the merger must be complete. The U.S. election doesn't help either. What Musk must try to avoid is being forced into the equity raise, which would likely be very expensive under that condition.
The SP after Q3 deliveries were announced is probably disappointing and they are evaluating their capital raising strategy.
The market is wise in that delivering the M3 is the next key event. Musk's meaningful but non-critical announcements don't seem to have the impact that they have in the past.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA is the single best stock to own for the next decade
So the pre-market is not too impressive. I guess Elon has lost credibility. The shorts have decided it was GS who turned down a capital raise. Of course I would imagine if they could avoid it Tesla would not want to raise another down round when they will soon show profitability. However, the positive for us longs is that shorts seem to think Elon is actually lying and that they still lost money in Q3. They think the discounting has cut into margins. I believe that if you run a line designed for 25,000 vehicles and only produce 15,000 your margins are going to be hurt. I'm expecting flat to slightly higher margins. If it weren't for the cheaper models they would be significantly higher.
The best part is the product announcement on October 17th implies a new demand lever which does not include discounting. Also, they have removed the 60 kwh Model X. My prediction right now is that we will end the year exceeding 25% gross margin on the Model X and 30% on the S. It would seem FCF+ is unlikely in Q4 but it will still be a very positive quarter earnings-wise and that will keep cash burn low.
I'm amazed because to me it seems like history is repeating itself. How people can't believe that Elon is the real deal is beyond me. It is completely fair to say he takes massive risks. I fully understand shorts and critics that point this out. But to paint him as a fraud just means you are not paying attention. Then there is the short that points out that in 2013 Elon said no capital raise and then 7 days later announced one. If we assume that was a dishonest act wouldn't you be scared as a short that the same thing is about to happen again? I guess this time they think we all see through it and are realizing he is a fraud. That is truly delusional. They also believe Tesla won't show a profit this quarter. It just emboldens me honestly. I'm already loaded up so it is just a waiting game for me but I'm expecting another leg up. I'll just say that 6 months from now I expect the stock to be at $350. I honestly have no idea though and I've always been overly optimistic in my predictions.
One other caveat by loaded up I mean loaded up with money that I can lose without my lifestyle being affected. My wife won't be angry if we lose it and nothing will change with my day-to-day life. I want to be sure my words don't encourage others risk money they shouldn't.
The best part is the product announcement on October 17th implies a new demand lever which does not include discounting. Also, they have removed the 60 kwh Model X. My prediction right now is that we will end the year exceeding 25% gross margin on the Model X and 30% on the S. It would seem FCF+ is unlikely in Q4 but it will still be a very positive quarter earnings-wise and that will keep cash burn low.
I'm amazed because to me it seems like history is repeating itself. How people can't believe that Elon is the real deal is beyond me. It is completely fair to say he takes massive risks. I fully understand shorts and critics that point this out. But to paint him as a fraud just means you are not paying attention. Then there is the short that points out that in 2013 Elon said no capital raise and then 7 days later announced one. If we assume that was a dishonest act wouldn't you be scared as a short that the same thing is about to happen again? I guess this time they think we all see through it and are realizing he is a fraud. That is truly delusional. They also believe Tesla won't show a profit this quarter. It just emboldens me honestly. I'm already loaded up so it is just a waiting game for me but I'm expecting another leg up. I'll just say that 6 months from now I expect the stock to be at $350. I honestly have no idea though and I've always been overly optimistic in my predictions.
One other caveat by loaded up I mean loaded up with money that I can lose without my lifestyle being affected. My wife won't be angry if we lose it and nothing will change with my day-to-day life. I want to be sure my words don't encourage others risk money they shouldn't.
I also take the fact that we basically only have one or two cheerleaders this morning after an Elon tweet as bullish. Lots of people have been burned on this stock so it will take something significant to get it moving again.
Edit: But when it does it will really move with lots of people wanting to get back in.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I agree! All the longs seem to have gone into hibernation except for Papafox and a few others
That's a great contrarian indicator
The only thing of note to me in premarket is the volume - it's higher than I've seen it in a long time.
Today before the market open Fidelity shares available to short went up to 1,221,928, with interest continue to slide down to 11.75%.
Based on the trend of last several trading days it is clear that the supply of shares available to short is growing steadily. The big question is whether short sellers will be enticed to pile on at this time or will rather wait until SP goes up before jumping in.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
We're up! I was expecting the new shares availabile to short would out weigh the tweets. That may yet prove to be the case, high volume...
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I'm alive and kicking. No negativity from me this time round as I am not concerned with the macro environment out there. Bullish as ever.
Most of us "strong longs" just can't be bothered replying to drivel.
Ulmo
Active Member
The good news sure is taking a while to digest in TSLA stock price. It allowed me to exercize some plans I made Saturday before Elon tweets over in the arbitrage stock, even though it did also raise a bit itself this morning.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Oil is catching a bid again today. I would like to remind everybody that we are in TSLA for the long game. Surging oil will bring all kinds off the sidelines and into TSLA. I would rather take 2% every day than 15% today followed by several pullbacks. The outlook on Tesla has changed and that is a good thing.
If the discussion is about re-purposing office buildings and other large structures into server farms or other uses that require signifcant back-up power, those leases will likely be triple net.
Gerardf
Active Member
There we go (I hope 
)
But last week rumor from Germany alone should have put the SP up by 10 pointsat least . Long term very much derisked the past months.
For long term seeing the signals popping up all around Europe about moving aggressively from Diesel and preparing the water for full switch to EV made ME feel much more convinced anyway. Hopefully the market will agree soon as well.
Who would have thought just one year ago (at higher TSLA SP than today) to see news like that from France and Germany ?
Edit : typo's
)But last week rumor from Germany alone should have put the SP up by 10 pointsat least . Long term very much derisked the past months.
For long term seeing the signals popping up all around Europe about moving aggressively from Diesel and preparing the water for full switch to EV made ME feel much more convinced anyway. Hopefully the market will agree soon as well.
Who would have thought just one year ago (at higher TSLA SP than today) to see news like that from France and Germany ?
Edit : typo's
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Thumper
Active Member
Strong long here. In for the long haul. Buy and hold only. German Bundesrat action to eliminate ICE by 2030 not even showing up on business websites as Tesla related. Not priced in at all. We should be much higher by the end of the year.
CALGARYARSENAL
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