Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

Paging @esk8mw: Tesla just filed "Notice of Effectiveness" with Oct 12 as "Effectiveness Date" : Notice of Effectiveness

What is significance of this - completion of the SEC review?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Remember....no systemic problem out there. This is Wall Street pulling back so they can load up on your shares for an election rally into year end. And a Santa Clause rally will be icing on the cake. Panic at your own peril. This ain't a ZeroHedge forum. I won't be selling.

 

[Ulmo]

Paging @esk8mw: Tesla just filed "Notice of Effectiveness" with Oct 12 as "Effectiveness Date" : Notice of Effectiveness

What is significance of this - completion of the SEC review?

Do we have to pay esk8mw?

 

[Ulmo]

Remember....no systemic problem out there. This is Wall Street pulling back so they can load up on your shares for an election rally into year end. And a Santa Clause rally will be icing on the cake. Panic at your own peril. This ain't a ZeroHedge forum. I won't be selling.

I've given up panicking long ago.

 

[Gerardf]

Me too. But the more recent comments have been full of incorrect information which changes the poster from useful short with plausible ideas to waste of time.

The problem is not that people like myusername post information that does support the short / bear case or is sceptical about TSLA valuation. The problem is that 'some' posters keep hammering, bringing up 'issue'after 'issue' after 'issue'. These often have been discussed multiple times in this and that repeated bring forward such subjects ruins the thread. Ignore function does not help, as some feel obliged to correct your (many) incorrect statements.

@myusername
You stated several times it is not your intention to derail this thread. However, you ARE derailing this thread and we are about to lose well respected posters because of that. IMHO you are definitely not worth that and it has to stop. You promised to post here less often, but you simply can not resist.

I would like to suggest that such posters (starting with myusername) create a new thread to bring their 'TSLA-issues' and bear cases forward. I suggest you name it : "Bear speculation thread, looking for answers" or similar. Be creative !

Next, please stop posting here and post your remarks and questions there, so anybody interested in that can answer / correct them there. Should something new or of general interest appear there, it can always be copied in the general thread.

 

[ZenMan]

Paging @esk8mw: Tesla just filed "Notice of Effectiveness" with Oct 12 as "Effectiveness Date" : Notice of Effectiveness

What is significance of this - completion of the SEC review?

Not just completion of review, but acceptance.

From investorshub.com

"The notice of effectiveness is a public declaration by the Securities and Exchange Commission that a public company's registration statement has been accepted. For shares in a public company to trade on the open market they must be registered by the company."

 

[Yggdrasill]

That's the argument Musk has tried to make, but it will not be allowed IMO. Tesla will not be allowed to trade decreased highway fatalities for increased pedestrian deaths.

Like that's at all what Tesla is suggesting. The autonomous drive tech will be able to identify a "busy" area, and reduce speed as a precautionary measure. And if something jumps out in front of the car, the brakes will engage in something like 10 ms, whereas a human has a reaction time more in the area of 1-2 seconds. This will both mitigate the effects of accidents, and prevent accidents.

Tesla's announcement of a low speed bus likely signals that many companies are working on low speed point to point autonomous vehicles that will operate on a known route when conditions allow. If Tesla was a couple of years away from full autonomy there would be no reason to announce a low speed bus.

Why on earth would Tesla announce a low speed bus? I expect Tesla's autonomous bus to be capable of 75+ mph.

 

[Irishjugg]

The price range isn't what is relevant.
What is relevant is what other cars did people seriously consider before making their purchase, e.g. cross-shopping.
SInce the average premium over previous car was 80% and the Prius was the most common previous car, that is the relevant benchmark.

It is those cross-shopped cars that are losing sales to Telsa.

The numbers also show a large decline two years running in the sales of similar premium cars like the S class and 7 series, so clearly it's both. I know you are fully capable of seeing that so I won't argue if you respond in a way that pretends you don't.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's the argument Musk has tried to make, but it will not be allowed IMO. Tesla will not be allowed to trade decreased highway fatalities for increased pedestrian deaths. Tesla's current highway driving contributes nothing to learning about autonomous driving in complex off highway environments. Google and other companies have set the standard that will be necessary to allow autonomous driving without supervision.

I do think that Google will try to launch a limited autonomous taxi this decade. I also think that the subset of big trucks on highways can probably be allowed in the next ten years. Both are a long way from a private car operating without human supervision. The path forward is likely "baby steps". Tesla's 8.0 software update is a good example. Hardly a "wow" event.

Tesla's announcement of a low speed bus likely signals that many companies are working on low speed point to point autonomous vehicles that will operate on a known route when conditions allow. If Tesla was a couple of years away from full autonomy there would be no reason to announce a low speed bus.

Teslas collect data even when Autopilot isn't active. While it is not ready for prime time the neural net is learning every time a Tesla goes through traffic.

 

[Irishjugg]

Elon was asked during the 2Q15 ER call which level of automation the anticipated rollout of Autopilot would achieve... level 2 or 3... his response was "I'm not familiar with the levels".

the complexities and legalities of level 5 automation are being drastically underestimated by many... the worst offender of this is Adam Jonas (MS)... the realistic expectations for level 5 automations should be in the 10 to 20 year range and will probably require significant infrastructure modifications.

level 4 automation allows the driver to "check out" while the vehicle handles all situations... even this will probably not occur within any reasonably close timeframe... quite frankly... level 4 might get skipped over entirely as once you pull this off you've basically got 5 covered.

I think the auto industry is burning a lot of cash on these ideas... it's very interesting stuff... and would be very cool to live in a world where cars picked you up... but the way I see it... this is probably not going to be solved by a single company with an atomic system... you should probably not place bets on this occurring any time soon... no matter what anybody says... it's still in sci-fi infancy... but will continue to be bantered as "just around the corner" for the next decade.

Thanks for explaining your perspective here. Very helpful in understanding the other areas in your thesis that I disagree with.

Do you work in the tech industry or some different industry? For my part coming from tech I disagree with your timeframe projections very strongly, so just wondering. There will be no follow up "gotcha" post or anything.

 

[MitchJi]

Teslas collect data even when Autopilot isn't active. While it is not ready for prime time the neural net is learning every time a Tesla goes through traffic.

We'll find out on Monday if it's ready for prime time .

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm curious if there are any experienced engineers or software developers reading this thread who believe we will have full autonomy in five years. I bet not.

I'll add that I see no evidence of Tesla doing the hard work of interpreting human intention as it relates to autonomous driving such as Google is doing. The edge problems are extremely difficult, in particular understanding the intent of pedestrians and bicycle riders.

I'm an experienced software engineer. I think 5 years is too long and with high enough confidence to bet money on it. 3 years or less seems more likely to me. Feel free to dig this up if I end up wrong, but I'm pretty certain I'll be correct.

 

[MitchJi]

Residential Solar Sales Need to Enter 21st Century -- The Motley Fool

<Snip>
More efficiency is needed in solar
For an industry built on technology, solar hasn't been very advanced in using technology to make sales. The ability to get a computer-generated price quote online is still relatively new in the industry, and national installers still want a phone call or in-person touchpoint to get customers to sign on the dotted line.

The problem is, that strategy is expensive. In the second quarter, Sunrun spent $0.78 per watt installed on sales and marketing. If the average solar system was 7 kW, that means it spent $5,460 per installation on customer acquisition costs. Vivint Solar was more efficient with $0.56 per watt in sales and marketing costs, while SolarCity spent $0.71 per watt, but we're still talking about thousands of dollars per sale.
<Snip>
Hard transition to a modern solar market
One obstacle residential solar companies face today is that the needs of a mature solar market aren't the same as the needs of a nascent one. Customers require less education and want more choice, which works against the model these companies built over the past decade. But a transition to more online education and sales will help lower costs, making solar more affordable and expanding the market, which is good for the solar business overall. It's a catch-22 if you're a national solar installer.

Moving to more automated, online sales will be a tough transition, but those companies that can do it will have a big growth opportunity. This is a transition investors should watch closely over the next year, because not everyone will get it right.

 

[electracity]

Like that's at all what Tesla is suggesting. The autonomous drive tech will be able to identify a "busy" area, and reduce speed as a precautionary measure. And if something jumps out in front of the car, the brakes will engage in something like 10 ms, whereas a human has a reaction time more in the area of 1-2 seconds. This will both mitigate the effects of accidents, and prevent accidents.

........................

Why would regulators allow this crude level of autonomy when other companies like Google have developed safer technology?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why would regulators allow this crude level of autonomy when other companies like Google have developed safer technology?

They haven't.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon was asked during the 2Q15 ER call which level of automation the anticipated rollout of Autopilot would achieve... level 2 or 3... his response was "I'm not familiar with the levels".

First, I don't actually recall that response and since you didn't provide a link.....but let's pretend he said it: What's your point?

That's rhetorical. I know what your point is and this is yet another example of your passive aggressiveness. This is where you respond coyly.

But hey, indulge me a moment longer and let me pretend a little bit more that the people on this forum can't think their way out of a wet paper bag. What Elon Musk was or was not familiar with over a year ago is irrelevant to today. Indeed, it was probably irrelevant an hour after the question was asked.

I know you think you're 'up' on the man and the company because you've listened to 4/5 ERs. There are many on this forum that have listened to every single ER (close to two dozen), they've also watched every one of his interviews dating back over 10 years, read every article, subscribed to his Twitter account, read books and biographies about him, been to every shareholder meeting, taken factory tours, etc., etc., etc., You, Sir, know nothing in comparison about Elon Musk or his companies.

...you should probably not place bets on this occurring any time soon... no matter what anybody says... it's still in sci-fi infancy... but will continue to be bantered as "just around the corner" for the next decade.

Ahahahaha!

EDIT: I see you did provide the verbiage - awesome and thank you! But you took it out of context and actually changed the meaning.

He said, 'Yeah, I'm not too familiar with what the various levels mean, but I can tell you just what it will translate to in the initial Autopilot.'

So he WAS 'familiar' just not 'TOO familiar', which means he couldn't quote them verbatim but was aware they existed. He then went on to explain why the current definition of the levels at that point in time were irrelevant for what was specifically being discussed.

What was your point?

 

[myusername]

Remember....no systemic problem out there. This is Wall Street pulling back so they can load up on your shares for an election rally into year end. And a Santa Clause rally will be icing on the cake. Panic at your own peril. This ain't a ZeroHedge forum. I won't be selling.

nothing systemic except an 8 year bull run.

 

[Value Ev]

I would like to suggest that such posters (starting with myusername) create a new thread to bring their 'TSLA-issues' and bear cases forward.

Based on posts here, we can have people start multiple threads (you know who you are), such as:

- 'TSLA-issues' with bear cases" - forum
- TSLA is changing the world with bull cases for a 1T valuation" - forum
- TSLA is a company - with neutral cases" - forum
- "Complaining about other posters rather ignoring them" - forum
- "Telling people to ignore other people" - forum
- "The evil shorts are at it again, Halliburton!" forum
- "The stock will go up due to something happening" forum
- "People are saying something I disagree with and it makes me sad or angry" forum

Or we can all post about things related to short term price movements (the name of this forum) and scroll past things we don't want to read or put people on ignore if it is too hard to do so.

 

[Lump]

Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch
"In total, we expect the combined company needing ~$12.5B for capex through 2018"


We also believe Tesla and SolarCity will increasingly use asset-backed lines to support working capital and select capital equipment spending, but still see Tesla’s vehicle platform needing $2B+ in additional capital beyond ABLs through 2018 with SolarCity needing $5B-$8B+ depending on volume of leased systems.

We believe a combined entity will face cash needs in four key areas: stationary power capex (primarily solar), auto capex, working capital and operating lease obligations. In total, we expect the combined company needing ~$12.5B for capex through 2018 sourced from a combination of asset-based debt, system refinancing, tax equity and corporate debt…


Wait, Tesla Motors Will Need to Raise $12 Billion?!?!

 

[myusername]

Based on posts here, we can have people start multiple threads (you know who you are), such as:

- 'TSLA-issues' with bear cases" - forum
- TSLA is changing the world with bull cases for a 1T valuation" - forum
- TSLA is a company - with neutral cases" - forum
- "Complaining about other posters rather ignoring them" - forum
- "Telling people to ignore other people" - forum
- "The evil shorts are at it again, Halliburton!" forum
- "The stock will go up due to something happening" forum
- "People are saying something I disagree with and it makes me sad or angry" forum

Or we can all post about things related to short term price movements (the name of this forum) and scroll past things we don't want to read or put people on ignore if it is too hard to do so.

the topic last night was brought up by a long... not me... would you like them to leave the board too?