We've discussed the ZEV topic some time ago. Guys, don't get over-excited about it.
While I believe each ZEV credit was worth $3-4k in the past until 2016 Q1, the current value of ZEV I believe is near zero. Yes, I mean it, near zero.
The reasons are two facts:
1. ZEV requirement for model years 2009 through 2011 was 11%, 2012 through 2014 was 12%, 2015 through 2017 was 14%.
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevregs/1962.1_Clean.pdf
This was the plan made several years ago. A clear uptrend. Many OEM can't meet the current requirement so they have been buying ZEV from others, Tesla being the biggest source. The price was good ($4k maybe), basically the net profit of their best profit making models. During this time frame, other OEMs also accumulated a surplus, in anticipation of increasing requirement.
2. But, in mid this year. CARB came out with the plan for 2018 and beyond. Guess what, the requirement for 2018 model is 4.5%. A 68% decrease. It will not be until 2022 when the requirement climbs back to 14.5%.
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevregs/1962.2_Clean.pdf
This suddenly changed everything. The surplus other OEMs sitting on is good enough for the next few years. The value of ZEV is near zero because there's no need for it. That's where the "penny on dollar" comment from Elon came from. Sure, Tesla can still sell the ZEV, but at a huge discount compared to the few k before. I think it is under $100 now.
And
@vgrinshpun I am aware that news you cite was written in September. But I don't believe it reflects this change in ZEV requirement.
