Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[electracity]

Spot on!

I really badly hope AP is not productised and sold to others. That's like giving away 100s of billions of dollars per year future revenue.

I think the model X will enter an Uber-like car service when they have some spare production capacity. I haven't followed model X specific demand, so I don't know if that time is now.

Way too much second row design emphasis on both the X and the 3 from Musk to not be thinking in this direction.

Two small points in this direction: 1) No more MX 60, and 2) Panasonic. By leaking their intentions on Panasonic at the Buffalo factory now they could be heading off criticism of Tesla/Musk taking on too much.

I'm just guessing, but I like the idea of MX in a car service. Great marketing now and obviously leads into driverless taxi. I don't think Musk can tolerate not being in this game as a primary player. But whether alone or with a partner I don't know.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today in WSJ: Nevada Voters Weigh Deregulation of Electricity Market

The deregulation push is part of a larger wave of challenges hitting the U.S. utility industry, which include weak power demand and competition from new technologies such as rooftop solar panels, industry watchers say.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well, it did not take long - the totals of ZEV credit transfers are making it's way into the articles:

Don’t Expect California ZEV Credits to Go Away Any Time Soon, CARB Head Says - HybridCars.com

"While viewing the latest report on the Air Resources Board website, you can see which companies have been selling and buying the most credits for compliance since the program was launched in the 2009 model year. Tesla Motors has, by far, been the largest seller of credits, with 80,227 transfers recorded so far. Toyota has been second at 6,840 credits transferred and Nissan came in at third with 6,600 credits transferred. Tesla and Nissan earned credits through sales of its battery electric vehicles, while Toyota earned credits for sales of what the state defines as partial zero emission vehicles (PZEV), which has primarily been met by sales of Toyota and Lexus hybrid electric vehicles.

As for automakers buying the most credits, Fiat Chrysler has received transfers of the most credits at 37,450 purchased. Ford was number two at 35,000 transfers received."

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Huge tailwind folks. Oil should surge tomorrow and over next few weeks. Always good for us. I think we have one last oil renaissance ahead in the next few years. The last one.

 

[brian45011]

Also I think the revenue you're citing is not the ZEV revenue. ZEV revenue has been around 30-40M per quarter in 2015 (except for Q4, as they said in Q3 letter they intend to hoard it), and Q1 2016 it was 57M.

I explicitly stated what I was posting was reported GHG/CAFE revenue. The ZEV sale revenue reported for those same periods was:

1Q13 $67.9 million
2Q13 $51.5 million
3Q13 $10.5 million
4Q13 $0.0 million

1Q14 $0.0 million
2Q14 $10.0 million
3Q14 $76.0 million
4Q14 $66.0 million

1Q15 $51.0 million
2Q15 $14.0 million
3Q15 $39.0 million
4Q15 $12.7 million

1Q16 $57.0 million
2Q16 Not Reported
3Q16 ?????

Different types of low emission vehicles aside, the data indicate OEMs are sitting on 16% of ZEV, while the requirement is being slashed to 4.5%. How would different types of low emission vehicles impact this?

The point is that the minimum (floor) "pure" ZEV % requirement going forward is what establishes the market value of ZEV credits; if OEMs do not have the correct type of "total" ZEVs, they have to either produce or buy the correct type.

 

[vgrinshpun]

 

[aubreymcfato]

Yes, I knew they offer limited trading features. I am a long term "buy and hold", for that they have low costs.

However not allowing me to vote now frustrates me, and I would be interested to move to Fidelity or IB, also to profit from shorts borrowing my shares. If anybody has experience moving to them as a European shareholder, please PM me.

(also me, thanks ;-)

 

[Turing]

So Elon says first 12 months sold out, how many cars is that based on past estimates?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Meanwhile, 637,755 shares traded after hours. Pretty healthy volume so far. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

 

[FluxCap]

View attachment 199098

Get 'em, Elon!

 

[doctoxics]

Is this a new statement from Tesla regarding when Model 3 production begins? The quote from the Tesla Model 3 page now reads:

"Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in mid 2017."

We know that all of the supplier and production issues were to be resolved by July 1, but production was not expected to be ready to go at that time. Not sure of how much time between the start of production and the first deliveries. Perhaps only a month, with most of that for QC. We have been told all along that deliveries were not expected to begin until "late 2017". Are we to conclude that there is a new and earlier date for the delivery of the first Model 3s? Seems CNBC might have missed the real story.

In response to CNBC's erroneous statement, Elon tweeted the following: "This is because the first 12 months of production are sold out."

Since Tesla is now advising that new orders will be delivered mid 2018 at the earliest, this tweet confirms that mid 2017 is now the expected start time for Model 3 production.

Another interesting aspect of Elon's tweet is to figure out how many cars are expected to be produced in the first 12 months. Based on his tweet, this number should be the current number of reservations, 373,000 plus or minus. Sure would like to know the number of reservations at this time.

 

[racer26]

My reading:

We've known since... a while ago. June? that the number of reservations is 373k.

It's obviously not true that the number has been unchanged since then. The question is how much not true?

We've heard some rumours in the last week or so that the number is over 500k.

We know that expected annual production at Fremont was to be 500k, but that was before all this talk of expanding Fremont and the factory efficiency per unit volume advances found at GF1.

If they could instantly ramp to max-capacity-speed production (they can't, I promise you that) then 500k would represent the first year being sold out. Since they can't instantly ramp to full production, that leaves us with two options. Either the full-speed-ahead production at Fremont will be considerably larger than 500k/yr, AND Tesla anticipates being able to ramp to that speed aggressively, OR the number of reservations that represents the first 12 months being sold out is less than 500k.

I've been saying since we knew the 373k number that the first year or more of production approximately was sold out. Furthermore, I believe that reveal part 2, and possibly to a lesser extent an AP2.0 or Tesla Glass release could change the number of reservations dramatically. Never mind what will happen when the first deliveries start happening and people get a ride in their friend's Model 3. I believe that if you wait until you can actually see a Model 3 in a customer's driveway to place your order, you won't see your car until at least late 2019, and possibly into 2020.

For every person who is willing to drop a grand 2 years out, sight unseen, I am confident that there are between 3 and 20 more who will be willing to buy the car when they can actually see one, and even more still when I can buy one and get it in my driveway in less than 2 months. I don't anticipate you will be able to do that until at least GF2 and more likely GF3 is online.

 

[JRP3]

V2G??

That certainly would be unexpected by most since both Elon and JB have discussed why it's not a good idea and why they don't do it. Plus it could hurt sales of Powerwalls. I'm going to say it won't be a V2G announcement.

 

[3Victoria]

Changes to California rebates: California increases EV rebate by $500 for lower-income buyers, makes earners over $150k ineligible

 

[Turing]

Changes to California rebates: California increases EV rebate by $500 for lower-income buyers, makes earners over $150k ineligible

300k for joint filers, not bad.

 

[Fallenone]

Can you clarify what is your point here?

My point is, beginning some time in Q2 2016, the market price of ZEV plummeted due to change in regulation and surplus accumulated by other OEMs over the years. It could be closer to $4k per ZEV before that time, but dramatically dropped down after that time - I don't know to what extent but think it is far less than $3-4k, based on regulations, current OEM productions, OEM ZEV balance, and Elon's frustration. And unless the regulation changes soon, I don't think the market price for ZEV will go up. Therefore, we shouldn't expect ZEV revenue surprise in Q3 ER or any ER in the future.

 

[Fallenone]

I explicitly stated what I was posting was reported GHG/CAFE revenue. The ZEV sale revenue reported for those same periods was:

1Q13 $67.9 million
2Q13 $51.5 million
3Q13 $10.5 million
4Q13 $0.0 million

1Q14 $0.0 million
2Q14 $10.0 million
3Q14 $76.0 million
4Q14 $66.0 million

1Q15 $51.0 million
2Q15 $14.0 million
3Q15 $39.0 million
4Q15 $12.7 million

1Q16 $57.0 million
2Q16 Not Reported
3Q16 ?????



The point is that the minimum (floor) "pure" ZEV % requirement going forward is what establishes the market value of ZEV credits; if OEMs do not have the correct type of "total" ZEVs, they have to either produce or buy the correct type.

Yeh so I thought we were discussing ZEV so not sure what's the relevance of GHG/CAFE revenue?

And doesn't the number under column "ZEV" means the ZEV OEM needs to meet? NEV, AT PZEV, etc., are listed in separate columns. The number under ZEV is about 16% of the OEM production number. So OEMs should be good for the next 2 or 3 years.

 

[Fallenone]

Well, I would caution against relying too much on journalists interpretation when @Fallenone provided links to the primary source - actual CARB regulations. I think that nobody should be shocked that journalists can be terribly wrong some of the times...

That's exactly the reason why I'm doubtful of that September article's number. The reporter may got this number earlier this year. And didn't update it after the regulation change.

 

[Value Ev]

We've heard some rumours in the last week or so that the number is over 500k.

Rumors from who? Anonymous longs on this forum who are guessing or hoping or someone who has an inside track, like a supplier?
(similar to how there are usually high quality and correct rumors about the new iPhone release coming from suppliers)

I heard rumors that the number is about the same due to cancellations and the push to get people to move to the 60 and no subsequent updates from Tesla after the reveal. After all, why wouldn't a company who makes announcements about a planned announcement not make noise about 500k or 600k reservations?

 

[KLC13]

Tesla updating its M3 delivery dates at this point in time may mean either 1) they now have a grip on the number of Model 3's they can produce or 2) the number of reservations has increased significantly from the original number. Or its both 1) and 2)

The issue of number of M3 reservations has been raised by critics (aka shorts) a lot recently. Let alone an increase in reservations, even if TSLA comes out and confirms the original reservation number, that itself would be a big positive for the SP.

Edit: Btw, I personally dont even mind a drop from the original reservation number. The shorts dont realize that the reservation number does not represent the totality of the M3 demand, but only a very small fraction of it (and the amazing part being even the small fraction is so massive at 300k).