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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
For MS and MX it pretty much shuts down the CA rebate for every potential buyer
I'm pretty confident the vast majority of MS and model X buyers make over 150/300
Sucks for buyers, but it really won't hurt sales at all
Looks like all Model S 60s in inventory have been converted to 75s (at least in the US). 60s still available for custom order.
Model S 60 kWh Removed from Inventory
May be another indication that demand is exceeding production capacity. IMO, so far all signs seem to point to Q4 being even stronger than Q3 for the automotive business -- comparable or better sales and higher margins.
Model S 60 kWh Removed from Inventory
May be another indication that demand is exceeding production capacity. IMO, so far all signs seem to point to Q4 being even stronger than Q3 for the automotive business -- comparable or better sales and higher margins.
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i'm thinking you will never get this answer
you are missing an option:
3) they won't be delivering M3s until Q4 2017 so nearly all deliveries won't start until 2018.
my evidence would be that he is a CEO of a 10k+ employee company!
You say this as if these are the only 2 possibilities which is not the case. Could be a bunch of other things. Someone just finally gotten down to a work item to actually do it that wasn't high enough priority for a long time. They expect more publicity from the next announcements and wanted to make sure if a surge of reservations comes in people understand what they're getting into. They received feedback or maybe even angry cancellations from people who reserved and didn't realize how far out the potential delivery date is. I'm sure I can come up with a few more if I wanted.
Point being, not worth wasting brain cells on this crap. It can mean just about anything, not tradeable and not influencing long term holding.
Krugerrand
Meow
AND an engineer that spends 80% of his time at Tesla doing real life engineering. My evidence is that that info came right out of his mouth.
"Customers who have already booked a Model 3 will get the car in 2017 as per the company's original plan, spokeswoman Alexis Georgeson told Reuters."
so Elon clearly stated that July 2017 was an intentionally over ambitious goal... and it would be more like late 2017 when deliveries begin... and now we see the statement above.
so how are they going to go from 0 M3 deliveries to 378k in the second half when July 1 is just an "internal goal"?
my answer to this is the number of reservations has very significantly dropped... maybe back to the 100Ks
so Elon clearly stated that July 2017 was an intentionally over ambitious goal... and it would be more like late 2017 when deliveries begin... and now we see the statement above.
so how are they going to go from 0 M3 deliveries to 378k in the second half when July 1 is just an "internal goal"?
my answer to this is the number of reservations has very significantly dropped... maybe back to the 100Ks
do you believe everything that everyone says... or only CEOs of publicly traded companies?
Elon is not your friend... he's not your buddy... you may hold stock... but that's it... that's you're only connection. don't follow him like a puppy dog.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Moderators, anything we can do to reduce myusername's waste-of-time posts, such as the one above? At one point he offered some reasonable posts, but those were in the distant past. A visitor to this thread should not have to wade through pages of dribble when the myusername show is on the air. Thank you.
mmd
Active Member
We can do all these mumbo jumbo speculation. Or we can simply look at how it worked out for Model X.
32k worldwide reservations, with $5k to $40k deposits led to 15k worldwide deliveries in one year, after 1-2 years of delay in launching.
I won't be expecting more than 200k deliveries (most optimistic) of M3 in the first year. If the federal tax credit is not extended, then there will be a big price hike to customers after the first 80k-100k deliveries in US.
No new information but here's a another demonstration of Nvidia's technology applied to driving autonomously.
Tesla chip maker demonstrates self-driving technology built on AI
Tesla chip maker demonstrates self-driving technology built on AI
which part?
the part where Elon clearly stated that July wouldn't happen? the part where he said late 2017 for the beginning of deliveries? or are you agreeing that 375k deliveries are not possible on 2017 like I am?
these things are true.
Sure. Here are a few other data points:
- Model S delivery dates are being pushed out -- current delivery estimate in US for new orders is December, even for CA residents.
- Tesla dropped the X60 -- its lowest margin vehicle.
- Mathematically, this should automatically tend to lead to higher margins.
- IMO Tesla would not have dropped the X60 unless it could not keep up with demand for S and X.
- Prices on some options have also increased, which should boost margins a bit more.
- Increases in production capacity should also contribute to more efficient production and better margins.
- Tesla achieving production of 25,185 vehicles in Q3 shows that focus on manufacturing is paying dividends, and I would expect increasing production efficiency to continue.
- Reports from China are that Model S registrations in Q3 exceeded 2500. It is likely that demand for X is greater than S in China.
- So 5000+ vehicles delivered to China in Q4 seems plausible if Tesla can produce them fast enough to deliver them.
- I expect that high demand from China for both S and X, on top of strong US and European demand, is contributing to the delivery backlog.
- Q4 production will only be 11 weeks, but even if average production is a conservative 2200 vehicles/wk (versus guidance of finishing 2016 at 2400/wk) that would be enough to essentially match Q3 deliveries, and 5500 vehicles in transit to customers gives a nice cushion.
Margins are also extremely likely to be higher due to the factors above absent some unexpected event.
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racer26
Active Member
Rumours from Tesla employees, second hand via people who asked them.
Tesla said they wouldn't announce further changes to the number. This is easy to understand the logic behind. 373k is a big number (its approximately an entire year's sales of the entire segment that Model 3 will be a part of). Why keep telegraphing to your competitors exactly how screwed they are, and exactly how much they need to do right now to try to remain competitive. Better to keep them in the dark until you're actually shipping the product they can't compete with, or else they might decide to find a way to compete.
racer26
Active Member
Oh come on. They never said they would deliver all 373k reservations in 2017. They said deliveries would start in 2017. And they're now saying that if you order today, you shouldn't expect to see your car until mid 2018 at the earliest.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I was going to say that I am all for clear-headed analysis of where Tesla could go wrong, but it's devolved into unhelpful post spamming.
From a meta-analysis standpoint though, I get the sense that anti-TSLA parties, or at least the human ones, have to be nervous about the next month or so. If they truly believe that Tesla will fail, there should be no need for stunts like today's CNBC "story" and other FUD. This is somewhat like the situation we see with Donald Trump: the worse things get for him the more outrageous (and ineffective) his tactics become.
In a normal situation, a company like Tesla should have died in 2008 or 2009, but the exact opposite has happened. People are afraid, because it was never supposed to have played out like this.
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