Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

Oppenheimer this AM:

TSLA: 3Q:16 Preview; Focus Returning to Cash Flow
and Model 3
SUMMARY
With TSLA reporting earnings Wednesday after the close, we note the company
is active on multiple fronts including an expected change in how it reports nonGAAP
financials as it winds down its resale value guarantee (RVG). We are waiting
to introduce adjusted estimates until we see the final version of the new reporting
structure, but expect our non-GAAP EPS to move lower. Given that TSLA already
announced 3Q:16 deliveries, we believe investors will be focused on CFFO in 3Q:16,
manufacturing margins, Model 3 timing, capital needs, and an update on the SCTY
acquisition. Ultimately we believe the key driver for TSLA shares will be the company's
ability to facilitate widespread, ongoing adoption of the Model 3, which we believe is
the heart of the bull thesis TSLA preview @ OPCO

 

[Papafox]

Now looking like the mandatory morning dip was 10am-11am.

 

[MitchJi]

With Autopilot 2.0, Tesla has pulled a few years ahead of the competition. And this is going to help when Tesla releases their ride-sharing network, Tesla Network. I don't think it's going to be easy to take on Uber, but I think Tesla has a decent chance. If Tesla can get regulatory approval for driver-absent Level 5 autonomous driving up to 35mph (ie., let's say in 2018), then Tesla can effectively start scaling their ride-sharing network. Here's how. They can have cars (driver-absent) circle urban areas driving under 35mph. When they pick up a passenger, the passenger sits in the driver seat. If the passenger agrees to be the "backup driver" then the car can go faster than 35mph, and if there's a problem it can fall back to the passenger in the driver's seat who can take control of the car. If the passenger doesn't agree to be the "backup driver" then the car is limited to 35mph, which might be ok for certain urban areas.

They actually will require almost no regulatory approval for most of the features, because they can all be part of advanced AP. The regulatory approval will be required for making the big change to using those features without a driver.

But you'd have to concede that it would be hard to imagine a car taking part in the Tesla Network autonomous ride sharing program and as it is giving a passenger a ride this passenger can start turning the wheel or pressing the brakes?

Your analysis is missing some possibilities. Level 5 capability doesn't mean or imply that a car can't be driven manually.

 

[Johan]

Your analysis is missing some possibilities. Level 5 capability doesn't mean or imply that a car can't be driven manually.

Not sure who you're replying to, you quoted several posts. My point is a true level 5 car that can do autonomous ride sharing must be able to disconnect the steering wheel and pedal input.

 

[FluxCap]

At this point, it doesn't seem the availability of shares to short nor the interest paid has much correlation with the stock price anymore.

Level 4-5 discussions should be moved to its appropriate thread.

I agree with both of these statements.

Watching IV leading up to what promises to be one of the more interesting Tesla Earnings Reports in the last couple years.

Anyone else trading this ER event?

 

[Tenable]

I agree with both of these statements.

Watching IV leading up to what promises to be one of the more interesting Tesla Earnings Reports in the last couple years.

Anyone else trading this ER event?

I'm heavy in short term options. 202.5-220 calls exp on Oct 28-nov11. I purchased 50 lotto ticket options for nov 11 240 calls today. With the intent of selling in a few days on a big spike up.

Please do your DD w/ your own money. I've been burned several times this year, I am by no means someone to follow.

 

[geneclean55]

I agree with both of these statements.

Watching IV leading up to what promises to be one of the more interesting Tesla Earnings Reports in the last couple years.

Anyone else trading this ER event?

Bought some short-term calls Friday on the expectation that price will melt up through Wednesday afternoon. I will sell sometime between now and then. Hopefully pick up some additional TSLA stock with the proceeds before ER.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Google being up 1.5% for no reason on almost no volume might trigger some volatility today.

 

[FluxCap]

Bought some short-term calls Friday on the expectation that price will melt up through Wednesday afternoon. I will sell sometime between now and then. Hopefully pick up some additional TSLA stock with the proceeds before ER.

Not a bad plan at all.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm heavy in short term options. 202.5-220 calls exp on Oct 28-nov11. I purchased 50 lotto ticket options for nov 11 240 calls today. With the intent of selling in a few days on a big spike up.

Please do your DD w/ your own money. I've been burned several times this year, I am by no means someone to follow.

You sure you bought 50 November 11 $240 calls today? I'm only seeing volume of 6 calls traded today.

 

[AlMc]

[QUOTE="FluxCap,
Anyone else trading this ER event?[/QUOTE]

Yes. Will sell half my call positions if IV/price goes up prior to ER on Tues/Weds.
No puts this ER

 

[durkie]

I agree with both of these statements.

Watching IV leading up to what promises to be one of the more interesting Tesla Earnings Reports in the last couple years.

Anyone else trading this ER event?

I got assigned several puts worth of shares a few weeks ago at around $200. I'm selling covered calls in the $220 range so that I get the premium and maybe I get to cash out with a pleasant profit.

Lately I'm loving writing OTM options on a stock that I think is underpriced and that I want to own. I feel like there's no bad outcome: shares get assigned to me at a discount, that's cool. Shares get called at a profitable price, that's cool too. I get the premium either way.

 

[stealthology]

Fyi, probably was the reason for the 12:46 mini-spike down. Warning, I get this info from an overwhelmingly bearish Tesla (and pro-Trump, lol) source.

(12:45:10 PM):
TESLA MODEL S WINS BACK RECOMMENDATION; MODEL X FALLS SHORT
12:45:05 : *BUICK BECOMES FIRST U.S. BRAND TO CRACK CONSUMER REPORTS TOP 3
12:45:06 : *TOYOTA'S NAMESAKE BRAND, LEXUS LINE SCORE HIGHEST IN SURVEY
12:45:07 : *CONSUMER REPORTS RELEASES AUTO RELIABILITY SURVEY

(Bloomberg) -- Buick, the 117-year-old General Motors Co. brand seeking to
shake its geriatric image, became the first from the U.S. to crack the top three
in Consumer Reports� reliability rankings, trailing only Toyota Motor Corp.�s
Lexus and namesake marques.

Tesla Motors Inc.�s Model S sedan recovered its recommendation, after losing it
last year, in the annual survey of Consumer Reports readers. But its Model X
sport utility vehicle wasn�t recommended because of multiple issues, including
problems with the electronic controls on its 17-inch dashboard screen and
failures of its falcon-winged doors, said Jake Fisher, the magazine�s director of
automotive testing. The Tesla brand ranked 25th among the 29 rated.

The survey, a buying bible to car shoppers that has been dominated by
Japanese automakers, has more international representation this year. Besides
GM�s Buick, Volkswagen AG�s Audi luxury line ranked fourth and Kia Motors
Corp.�s namesake brand came in fifth. Sedans, selling poorly amid low fuel

Four of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV�s brands -- Dodge, Chrysler, Fiat and Ram -- were at the bottom of the list. The company�s Jeep line rose four places to 23rd, but remained among the �less reliable� brands. The Ram pickup line was the lowest rated in the survey. The Jeep Patriot, which ends production next year, was that brand�s most reliable model, while its new small Renegade SUV scored the lowest - more on the auto survey

 

[mrdoubleb]

Don't call me a party p**per guys, but I am hoping we don't go too high today. Managed to get some cash transfer accelerated and will get it tomorrow morning. I think it may still make sense to load up on SCTY and get TSLA at a discount, but will reevaluate tomorrow before i pull the trigger.

On a related note, I saw the latest SA headline today, took the bait and clicked through as it seemed like a surprisingly positive headline from a usual short. It said sg about how Tesla going to have a knockout ER. But as soon as read the article summary/main points it was clear it was a sarcastic take and the article was all about how Tesla /Elon are taking all of us for a fool, gaming the system and artificially producing GAAP profit this one time and how this is an unsustainable hoax, downright criminal.

Pathetic...

 

[Lump]

25th out of 29
Tesla, included in the survey for the first time, finished 25th. The low ranking was due largely to the company's new Model X, which was rated as the least reliable midsize luxury SUV.

"The Model X out of the gate is very problematic," Fisher said. "A lot of the problems have to do with the complex doors. The falcon wing doors are kind of an accident waiting to happen."

Consumer Reports Restores Recommendation for Tesla's Model S Sedan


American automaker breaks 35-year losing streak for domestic brands

 

[doctoxics]

[QUOTE="FluxCap,
Anyone else trading this ER event?

November 4 calls at 210. Not sure if I will sell before earnings or shoot the moon; potentially a big move up on Thursday.

 

[Tenable]

You sure you bought 50 November 11 $240 calls today? I'm only seeing volume of 6 calls traded today.

Lol, I purchased 5. I wanted to seem big time on .60 options. My apologies.

Edit: /sigh To be clear 50 was a typo.

 

[LoL Rick]

I haven't seen this posted. Hit piece from Zack's showed up in my account's news feed this morning. Cliff's notes: expect a loss of 0.64 per share.

Will Tesla (TSLA) Continue to Disappoint in Q3 Earnings?

 

[Papafox]

Don't call me a party p**per guys, but I am hoping we don't go too high today. Managed to get some cash transfer accelerated and will get it tomorrow morning. I think it may still make sense to load up on SCTY and get TSLA at a discount, but will reevaluate tomorrow before i pull the trigger.

On a related note, I saw the latest SA headline today, took the bait and clicked through as it seemed like a surprisingly positive headline from a usual short. It said sg about how Tesla going to have a knockout ER. But as soon as read the article summary/main points it was clear it was a sarcastic take and the article was all about how Tesla /Elon are taking all of us for a fool, gaming the system and artificially producing GAAP profit this one time and how this is an unsustainable hoax, downright criminal.

Pathetic...

Yeah, but Elon's defense will be a very positive projection for 4th quarter. With the necessary Model 3 and gigafactory spending, Q4 won't be cash flow positive, but it can be GAAP profitable again. In fact, Elon can speak of 4Q being more profitable than 3Q and say it with conviction. GM will be up in 4Q There's always the option of reducing the vehicles-in-transit number in 4Q, but you don't talk about that. Then Elon starts talking about how demand is strong, the auto side stays profitable until large hiring needed for Model 3 ramp, and Tesla Energy starts cranking out serious profits too. That ought to take care of the hoax theory.

 

[Turing]

25th out of 29
Tesla, included in the survey for the first time, finished 25th. The low ranking was due largely to the company's new Model X, which was rated as the least reliable midsize luxury SUV.

"The Model X out of the gate is very problematic," Fisher said. "A lot of the problems have to do with the complex doors. The falcon wing doors are kind of an accident waiting to happen."

Consumer Reports Restores Recommendation for Tesla's Model S Sedan


American automaker breaks 35-year losing streak for domestic brands

Nice that CS data shows model s with improved reliability. It seems like it is normal for brand new luxury car like the MX built on a entirely new platform to take a few quarters to get to higher reliability.