Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

- they can understand a TV show, monetize it, model it. All they can do with the Model III is talk about how it can't be built, can't be profitable, won't be able to use autonomous driving.

To be fair, none of today's analysts has ever experienced rapid growth in a car company. It hasn't been done in decades. Any historical experience they have is car companies going bankrupt, merging and the like. None of them have experienced a car-tech-energy company either. You can't know what you've never been taught or experienced.

It's hard enough for some of us to wrap our heads around the gargantuan possibilities. Let's just reflect back to the day the Solar City merge was announced. The overwhelming response by longs was 'OMG, what has Elon done!!!!!' It only clicked for a handful of us, while others came around given time to ponder, and still others still don't see it for what it could and will be. There are literally dozens and dozens and dozens of such examples of various scale on this 'enthusiasts' forum filled with people who have nitpicked at this company for years. Analysts as a whole don't stand a chance of getting it right with Tesla.

I think Elon is pissed at his former supplier and his exchange with Jonas about being willing to share data with other car companies and to "wait for additional information that could be available at a product lunch (sic)," tips his hand at Tesla Tech as a product. This, goes along with his rhetoric about how preventing technology/autonomy from saving lives is morally reprehensible, then by extension of that logic, hoarding that technology is equllly reprehensible. Before the end of 2017, Tesla will announce a competitive driver assist/autonomous product, tested in the field, based on NVIDIA and their AI....and they will eat MBLY's lunch and should (but won't) suck up an additional $10 Billion market cap (MBLY's current valuation).

Think he's pissed?! LOL! Elon is predictable in many ways (as are we all). He's is for the good of all until you try and hurt him. It's a very bad idea to threaten his companies because he will make you pay one way or another. What MobileEye did was a threat. To add insult to injury, Elon originally took the high road when he tweeted about anything going wrong with AP was Tesla's fault and no one else's, and then MobileEye spit in Tesla's eye. That's going to come back to bite them in the butt.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, except for Baird, these analysts are mix of haters.

Sucks but we are back to needing Adam J from MS.
Next to Goldman, he's the most influential analyst.
He CAN really move the stock

Hopefully he doesn't stick it to EM and Tesla... I'm not optimistic.

You never know "which" version of Adam J you're gonna get... Dr Jeckel or Mr Hyde.

 

[MitchJi]

One more example. When Elon realized the challenge of scaling Model 3 manufacturing to 500K cars in less than 3 years, he didn't bring in experienced manufacturing consultants. Instead he turned to his CTO and his Product engineers to solve the problem from first principles, even though they likely have very little manufacturing experience.

I think that this was mostly based on what I call Elon's Production Epiphany, which happened during the time when he was sleeping on the assembly line working on the X production problems.

niedermeyer???? daily kanban???

You got the spelling wrong. That's Nutermeyer.

 

[Krugerrand]

well let's look at ford's Q3:

Let's not and say we did just for the fun of comparing apples to oranges, rather than for any valuable information.

 

[stealthology]

(07:16:28 AM): Tesla's Elon Musk announcing a future roadmap, noting Tesla car's going forward will use NVDA's Titan GPU away from the MBLY . Assuming all the ~90K cars/year that Tesla builds, it is ~$25M revenue incrementally for NVDA if Tesla outfits all cars. This underlines positive trend for NVDA's GPU implementation. As we have noted the need for fusion solutions drives competition to camera systems with NXPI's Bluebox, Intel's Xeon, XLNX Renesas R-Car among others, but also now raises the bar for other Auto OEMs to accelerate a roadmap to Level 4/5. - NVDA at Mizuho

Did 'Mizuho' just estimate a $277/unit revenue for each of the new 'Titan'/'Drive PX 2's that NVDA sells?

 

[Krugerrand]

this is a statement every bag holder has made... not wise.

You're really in no position to admonish bag holders right now. They've at least got something in those bags. You; not so much.

 

[SBenson]

Analyst reaction to ER

If we were to focus exclusively on big investment banks, here is what price targets look like

Firm Pre-ER Post-ER
------------------------------------------
Morgan Stanley 245 245
RBC 210 220
Goldman Sachs 185 190
JP Morgan 180 180
Barclay's 165 165

 

[FluxCap]

Well, except for Baird, these analysts are mix of haters.

Sucks but we are back to needing Adam J from MS.
Next to Goldman, he's the most influential analyst.
He CAN really move the stock

Hopefully he doesn't stick it to EM and Tesla... I'm not optimistic.

You never know "which" version of Adam J you're gonna get... Dr Jeckel or Mr Hyde.

Jonas released a small note this morning which was "milquetoast" for lack of a better word. He maintained his $245 PT without any real revenues from Tesla Energy or Tesla Mobility, but his "bull case" PT is $298 assuming some revenues for both.

 

[racer26]

Analyst reaction to ER

If we were to focus on exclusively big investment banks, here is what price targets look like

Firm Pre-ER Post-ER
------------------------------------------
Morgan Stanley 245 245
RBC 210 220
Goldman Sachs 185 190
JP Morgan 180 180
Barclay's 165 165

It's amazing to me that even in the wake of such an undeniable beat, they're still calling for 20-40% drops in SP.

 

[Ovulation]

You don't change culture overnight. Other automakers have been dead for the last 5 years. They just don't know it yet..

I agree and that's why Tesla had the change to become successful.

btw. Zetsche form Daimler talks quite a lot form changing the culture nowadays

btw2. I think there is some magic whith Elon, when you have a CEO who really pushes the bounderies of the technical possible you get the engineers really exited and probablie overachieving

 

[SBenson]

Analyst reaction to ER

If we were to focus on exclusively big investment banks, here is what price targets look like

Firm Pre-ER Post-ER
------------------------------------------
Morgan Stanley 245 245
RBC 210 220
Goldman Sachs 185 190
JP Morgan 180 180
Barclay's 165 165

Having said that, I believe they want to see consecutive good quarters to change their minds.

I also believe that good quarters are lined up quite well. At least next two.

This might be one of the best times to buy some LEAP calls.

 

[Irishjugg]

there is nothing in this ER or on the call about Tesla Energy... i actually find that disconcerting... all you have to go on with it is pure speculation.

I guess that means you didn't read the shareholder letter then.

 

[stealthology]

Having said that, I believe they want to see consecutive good quarters to change their minds

I believe they're a load of *sugar*, but that's just me.

 

[MitchJi]

Did 'Mizuho' just estimate a $277/unit revenue for each of the new 'Titan'/'Drive PX 2's that NVDA sells?

Looks correct to me.

Great catch!

 

[Gtoffo]

Some serious shorting is going on. There were 763,130 shares available for shorting yesterday after market close at Fidelity (1.5% interest). It plummeted by more than 284K shares to 478,745 by 10:13am, and then further down to 451,445 by 10:16am (interest rate went down to 1%).

So we are not seeing taking of profits (duh), these are shorting attacks trying to keep stock from breaking out of symmetrical triangle I posted couple of days ago.

Totally agree.... They know that if the stock crosses the SMA it is all over for them....but how long will they last? The stock is going up against the market which is sinking down.... a lot of buyers for those shorted shares.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Will SCTY sell, flat, or buy the news come Monday open?

We can see the anticipation level constrained by the ratio Friday?

(No, I'm not asking for our time travelers to tell me. I'm just contemplating this out loud.)

I think we'll see the gap in valuation between TSLA and SCTY to narrow substantially. That might mean that SCTY will climb, but it might also mean that TSLA will fall. I think the former is most likely.

 

[MitchJi]

This might be one of the best times to buy some LEAP calls.

Hoping to get a good deal on J19's in 4-16 weeks.

 

[dennis]

I think that this was mostly based on what I call Elon's Production Epiphany, which happened during the time when he was sleeping on the assembly line working on the X production problems.

Don't disagree at all. But epiphanies are no good unless you have the right people to realize your vision. And I can assure you from 30 years of personal experience that there are orders of magnitude difference between the best and the worst engineering teams. And without having one of the very best teams Tesla would have failed long ago.

Over and out as I realize this is OT.

 

[Irishjugg]

I think you are misunderstanding my point. My second scenario is already extremely compelling to customers. Customer satisfaction will already be ridiculously high. So high that Tesla will not be able to meet demand. Giving away $3.4B a year provides no benefit if customer satisfaction is already way higher than with any competing product and Tesla can't produce enough to meet the additional demand it may create. If anything customer satisfaction will be *worse* because fleets will buy up every single car available.

By the way, $3.4B of pure profit every year is a HUGE amount of money.... It's not about greed, it's about optimizing the growth of sustainable energy.

Everything you said is accurate and reasonable, sorry if I came across otherwise. I simply disagree with your thinking on this, but admittedly this is me tea-leafing over Elon's thought process. I feel that I tend to have a decent read on his thinking and motivations and I think he will likely try to please the customer over the shareholders, therefore a lower split to Tesla.

Pretty immaterial now, and either way profit increases, but we will know for sure later.

You may be right in that it could be tiered down over time and production ramps up.

 

[schonelucht]

I can't say anything else than that Tesla has done everything right this quarter. They kept costs in check, did great cash management, sold a lot of cars are great margins, kept inventory while it was ballooning previously. There is no short story left for the automotive part of the business without going into severe speculation not backed by actual facts or even signs. It's really surprising to me that the stock price isn't moving higher, so I took advantage of buying back in after my reservations over the last months.