Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Some serious shorting is going on. There were 763,130 shares available for shorting yesterday after market close at Fidelity (1.5% interest). It plummeted by more than 284K shares to 478,745 by 10:13am, and then further down to 451,445 by 10:16am (interest rate went down to 1%).

So we are not seeing taking of profits (duh), these are shorting attacks trying to keep stock from breaking out of symmetrical triangle I posted couple of days ago.

Wow, apparently we can actually get to "no shares available to short"?!

This is amazing if true and the opposite from what I expected today. Expected SOME covering. Clearly some new short positions are being started. Fortunately, they'll run out of inventory shortly

 

[racer26]

Everything you said is accurate and reasonable, sorry if I came across otherwise. I simply disagree with your thinking on this, but admittedly this is me tea-leafing over Elon's thought process. I feel that I tend to have a decent read on his thinking and motivations and I think he will likely try to please the customer over the shareholders, therefore a lower split to Tesla.

Pretty immaterial now, and either way profit increases, but we will know for sure later.

You may be right in that it could be tiered down over time and production ramps up.

That's ultimately what I suspect will happen. TSLA's cut of TN will be bigger at first (while production limited) to help scale and build more gigafactories, and as the shift happens toward being demand limited, then the TSLA cut of TN will simply become yet another relatively high precision demand control lever to dial demand to match production. That's one thing TSLA has been quite good at, is utilizing the demand levers to dial demand in to match production. Too much demand, and you have unhappy customers, too little to fill production and you have unhappy shareholders. The optimal level for demand is to exactly match it to production capacity.

 

[Drax7]

Love you cult members
People versus Uber ---->>>>-- Neural network. ------>>>>. Buy
Dreadnaught version one point 0


The guy is tantalizing

 

[racer26]

Not even 90 minutes into the trading day yet, and we're already at 160% of the daily average volume.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some serious shorting is going on. There were 763,130 shares available for shorting yesterday after market close at Fidelity (1.5% interest). It plummeted by more than 284K shares to 478,745 by 10:13am, and then further down to 451,445 by 10:16am (interest rate went down to 1%).

So we are not seeing taking of profits (duh), these are shorting attacks trying to keep stock from breaking out of symmetrical triangle I posted couple of days ago.

At 10:49am shares available to short are down another 305K, to 146,445

 

[racer26]

At 10:49am shares available to short are down another 305K, to 146,445

Holy crap. Yeah. At that clip they'll run out of ammo before lunch.

Further to that thought: What the <BLEEP> are these people shorting into new positions today thinking? With a big product reveal tomorrow that might finally turn the tides on TE, and the leak that Powerwall 2.0 will be in stores by next week, and the SCTY merger all but locked up, AND flirting with technicals that could cause us to breakout?

 

[MitchJi]

Don't disagree at all. But epiphanies are no good unless you have the right people to realize your vision. And I can assure you from 30 years of personal experience that there are orders of magnitude difference between the best and the worst engineering teams. And without having one of the very best teams Tesla would have failed long ago. .

Agree. But the vision to hire and direct them is much more important.

Once again compare google's full autonomy program with Tesla's. It's the vision of the person or people in charge, not the quality of the engineers that is making the difference.

 

[techmaven]

Did 'Mizuho' just estimate a $277/unit revenue for each of the new 'Titan'/'Drive PX 2's that NVDA sells?

Since there are two GP102's, that means each GP102 is $138.50. I was hoping it was less than $500 each. Of course, that's not the full cost of the board + chips + mounting hardware, which likely Tesla makes or integrates itself.

 

[Johan]

Holy crap. Yeah. At that clip they'll run out of ammo before lunch.

Further to that thought: What the <BLEEP> are these people shorting into new positions today thinking? With a big product reveal tomorrow that might finally turn the tides on TE, and the leak that Powerwall 2.0 will be in stores by next week, and the SCTY merger all but locked up, AND flirting with technicals that could cause us to breakout?

The Nile is not just a river in Egypt.

Seriously, this is definitely a classic case of throwing good money after bad.

 

[esk8mw]

As I think about the weak ZEV credit mandate and its short term detriment to TSLA - taking a long term view - I think it will actually cement Tesla's position at the top.

If you really believe electric cars are the future, all this mandate does is put the other automakers further and further behind because they are solely focused on the short term and getting the 15k/car benefit. It finally clicked for me during the CC yesterday - there's no incentive for GM to commit to electric cars at this point from the ZEV mandate. So they won't build out a SpC network and they won't sell in non-ZEV states in any meaningful way and they won't build or partner in a GGF because that requires long-term thinking and CARB incentivizes the short term view right now.

Every day that the traditional automakers fail to commit to electric cars in a meaningful way is another day's lead for Tesla - and Tesla moves way faster than everyone else as it is. Building the Bolt doesn't position GM closer to the promised land in any way. The ZEV mandate will keep automakers busy gleefully trying to pluck the low hanging fruit while the Tesla bulldozer is bearing down on them.

For the sake of the environment (and Tesla's short term prospects) I hope the mandate is significantly strengthened, but if it doesn't - Tesla will still emerge as the winner when the smoke clears. Traditional automakers will be in line for another bailout soon enough (5-10 years).

 

[FluxCap]

I can't say anything else than that Tesla has done everything right this quarter. They kept costs in check, did great cash management, sold a lot of cars are great margins, kept inventory while it was ballooning previously. There is no short story left for the automotive part of the business without going into severe speculation not backed by actual facts or even signs. It's really surprising to me that the stock price isn't moving higher, so I took advantage of buying back in after my reservations over the last months.

Indeed. I advised a few friends today that are much longer-term investors that this morning's disconnect between the media and analyst "malaise" and the actual company performance presents the first real opportunity in a while to profit from re-entering TSLA for a medium term gain.

I really like the effect Wheeler has had on the company even in the short time he has been with them.

If it wasn't for (unreasonably extreme) doubts about the SCTY merger that will be proven wrong soon, the stock would have been up $50 on the results last night, easily.

 

[Bgarret]

Well, except for Baird, these analysts are mix of haters.

Sucks but we are back to needing Adam J from MS.
Next to Goldman, he's the most influential analyst.
He CAN really move the stock

Hopefully he doesn't stick it to EM and Tesla... I'm not optimistic.

You never know "which" version of Adam J you're gonna get... Dr Jeckel or Mr Hyde.

Nice thought Fred...and I consider getting a "dislike" from one of my ignored members the equivalent of 10 "Loves"

 

[EnzoXYZ]

TSLA bought more
Filled at $210.72

You been pretty bullish. Why didn't you max out under 200? It's been screaming buy under 200 for couple of weeks especially if you believe any of the bulls here. I bought more under 200 because of you! Just curious.

 

[stealthology]

Can we get confirmation that Morgan Stanley has issued anything today so far? Outside of you know, 'The Country Caller', 'The Cerbat Gem', 'Community Financial News', 'News Is Money', and the likes..

 

[racer26]

As I think about the weak ZEV credit mandate and its short term detriment to TSLA - taking a long term view - I think it will actually cement Tesla's position at the top.

If you really believe electric cars are the future, all this mandate does is put the other automakers further and further behind because they are solely focused on the short term and getting the 15k/car benefit. It finally clicked for me during the CC yesterday - there's no incentive for GM to commit to electric cars at this point from the ZEV mandate. So they won't build out a SpC network and they won't sell in non-ZEV states in any meaningful way and they won't build or partner in a GGF because that requires long-term thinking and CARB incentivizes the short term view right now.

Every day that the traditional automakers fail to commit to electric cars in a meaningful way is another day's lead for Tesla - and Tesla moves way faster than everyone else as it is. Building the Bolt doesn't position GM closer to the promised land in any way. The ZEV mandate will keep automakers busy gleefully trying to pluck the low hanging fruit while the Tesla bulldozer is bearing down on them.

For the sake of the environment (and Tesla's short term prospects) I hope the mandate is significantly strengthened, but if it doesn't - Tesla will still emerge as the winner when the smoke clears. Traditional automakers will be in line for another bailout soon enough (5-10 years).

A little unfortunate that news of Quebec joining the ZEV mandate fray came today, as it will be buried under the noise of the ER.

Its funny. I tend to agree - a weaker ZEV mandate gives the automakers less incentive to change. Less incentive to change = less change, = TSLAs moat grows, because TSLA is the only one (really) moving. Back in the 90s when CARB's earlier ZEV mandates were strong, we got the EV1 out of GM. It was a technological marvel for its time, and the owners of them loved them. At the time, CARB was calling for something 100% ZEV penetration by the late 2000s, and the automakers were in panic mode. Eventually they convinced CARB to loosen up, and canned the EV1 program, and only now can we maybe see a day where 100% ZEV penetration happens, 10+ years out.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Holy crap. Yeah. At that clip they'll run out of ammo before lunch.

Further to that thought: What the <BLEEP> are these people shorting into new positions today thinking? With a big product reveal tomorrow that might finally turn the tides on TE, and the leak that Powerwall 2.0 will be in stores by next week, and the SCTY merger all but locked up, AND flirting with technicals that could cause us to breakout?

Could it be some of the longs calling back shares to profit?

 

[gaswalla]

Watch out...Bears are mounting a successful attack... Should be short lived

 

[racer26]

The ammo has to be running thin now. They've driven it back down to less than 3% over yesterday's close.

Also: TSLA and SCTY have been trading in lockstep at a 10:1 ratio, instead of the 11:1 merger value.

 

[esk8mw]

There was a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Just playing out the steep drop right now. SP will bounce soon I'm guessing.

 

[Ovulation]

I can't say anything else than that Tesla has done everything right this quarter. They kept costs in check, did great cash management, sold a lot of cars are great margins, kept inventory while it was ballooning previously. There is no short story left for the automotive part of the business without going into severe speculation not backed by actual facts or even signs. It's really surprising to me that the stock price isn't moving higher, so I took advantage of buying back in after my reservations over the last months.

When it becomes abvious that SolarCity is not a cash burning nightmare and the Powerwalls und PowerPacks get shipped in numbers, than the SP will go ballistic .. So when go in? before O4 conference call or Q1 2017 CC that's the million dollar question ... Hmmm