Chartered321
Member
Shares are changing ownership. I smell some big institutional selling, possibly instructed after a perfect 3Q16. I'd say this is healthy consolidation. Consensus want/hope for a 140 back again to get back. I bet it won't happen.
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Fidelity: 128,525 available as of 1:15pm, 1% interest rate.
Big product reveal event just 2 days after ER ?
That's a tight timing, only 2 days to take profits before the SP drops due to the new product announcement -- as it usually does in response to those
So what do we expect ?
+10% on positive ER, followed by -3% on product reveal ?
Mea Culpa!
I have soo overestimated the market's rationality.
+10% on beat ER ? What was I thinking...
Nope, it goes into the red instead :O
it just does not compute
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I personally don't give a hoot about what the analysts (who aren't putting their own money at risk) have to say about the CC and earnings report. I know that most of my concerns have been addressed, such as dilution and GF/3 progress, as well as SCTY cash vacuums. Bought SCTY on the dip
Market is a voting mechanism in the short-term, weighing in the long--Buffett or Munger?
Calm down folks, 3 more potentially significant catalysts in the next 3 trading days. Then 2 more in the next 10 trading days. Plus a giant macro potential of oil prices going up.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
So this guy on CNBC says payables as a percentage of COGS when from 15% to 36% (at 0:43). Anyone know what he's talking about?
Fichthorn: We're still short Tesla
Fichthorn: We're still short Tesla
I bought more Nov 4 calls when the SP was sitting at 202.50. This move is straight up irrational (just like the move up after a bad Q2 report), gap has filled and 2 more catalysts in my Nov 4 calls - SCTY announcement Oct 28 and financial news Nov 1. Feeling good about it.
TSLA is still in the penalty box. The analysts don't believe the cash flow is real because they don't believe Elon is telling the truth when he said that they need less capex than originally planned. The only way that gets sorted out is to deliver M3 by mid next year without a belatedly huge increase in capex.
And without analyst support, there aren't going to be a lot of new buyers for the stock, hence no big price jump.
It is more than just sour grapes on the analyst's part. Their customers (institutional buyers of Tesla stock) no doubt ripped them to shreds when SCTY was announced. That announcement tanked the stock price and made each fund that owned Tesla look bad. That directly resulted in poorer comps versus competition funds that didn't buy Tesla. Which directly impacted fund manager bonuses. If I were a fund manager, I'd be pissed too that I made $1M less this year due to Tesla (yeah, yeah, they can afford it, but ignoring that).
So the analysts are basically outdoing each other trying to find any little possible weakness in the financials because that's what their customers are demanding of them. They also jumped on the payables increasing as evidence of manipulation, when another answer is that the CFO was told to conserve cash (duh), so he negotiated better payables terms from suppliers, which is easier now to do than it was a year ago since they can dangle huge M3 volumes at them. This is what Elon partly meant when he said "operational efficiency", and that's not manipulation, but an effective way of using Tesla's new found strength to source other forms of capital.
Where's Andrea James when you need her? Other than waiting for mid next year when it'll be too late to jump on the TSLA bus, analysts should be doing their due diligence to figure out whether Elon is lying or not. I have yet to see evidence presented to indicate that anyone has done that. In other words, the current crop of analysts are hacks who can't do a proper job. Regardless, they do still influence the stock price.
And without analyst support, there aren't going to be a lot of new buyers for the stock, hence no big price jump.
It is more than just sour grapes on the analyst's part. Their customers (institutional buyers of Tesla stock) no doubt ripped them to shreds when SCTY was announced. That announcement tanked the stock price and made each fund that owned Tesla look bad. That directly resulted in poorer comps versus competition funds that didn't buy Tesla. Which directly impacted fund manager bonuses. If I were a fund manager, I'd be pissed too that I made $1M less this year due to Tesla (yeah, yeah, they can afford it, but ignoring that).
So the analysts are basically outdoing each other trying to find any little possible weakness in the financials because that's what their customers are demanding of them. They also jumped on the payables increasing as evidence of manipulation, when another answer is that the CFO was told to conserve cash (duh), so he negotiated better payables terms from suppliers, which is easier now to do than it was a year ago since they can dangle huge M3 volumes at them. This is what Elon partly meant when he said "operational efficiency", and that's not manipulation, but an effective way of using Tesla's new found strength to source other forms of capital.
Where's Andrea James when you need her? Other than waiting for mid next year when it'll be too late to jump on the TSLA bus, analysts should be doing their due diligence to figure out whether Elon is lying or not. I have yet to see evidence presented to indicate that anyone has done that. In other words, the current crop of analysts are hacks who can't do a proper job. Regardless, they do still influence the stock price.
I bet he's not comparing apples to apples as Tesla completely changed the way they report in Q3. Not an accounting expert, but I'm pretty sure Q2 COGS are not calculated in the same way as Q3 COGS thanks to all the different lease/RVG accounting.
With regard to my earlier post about nobody offering congrats and as it has been pointed out at times being rude on the call, I have to wonder when I see the GS and MS "notes", whether no Cap raise (in spite of them telling Elon he needed to) equals no easy pay day in the short term at least GS or MS and hence their inaction and meh reaction.
I can't help but think that if another easy pay day (some form of cap raise)for them is not heavily influencing their actions.
Just amazing the bs level from Adam Jonas on this one, dude puts a $333 price target earlier this year based on tesla mobility and tesla energy, back when neither were that visible and really didn't warrant the upgrade at the time, now they are more tangible with AP 2.0 hardware shipping and Tesla signing some big contracts with TE and getting close to ramping GF with production and he refuses to adjust model to include TE and tesla mobility at this point. Just lol.
davecolene0606
Member
You mean a Tucker Carlson/Dick Cheney production right?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's awesome use of idle prisoner time.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Astounding. O'Leary:
"BMW has an equivalent product and it's getting better and better all the time". No, no other car manufacturer has an even remotely equivalent product. This is an indisputable fact.
"Gravity will hit eventually, Tesla makes one thing: a car". No, Tesla make home batteries, will soon make solar panels, will go in to ride sharing market. These are facts.
"This stock will crash and then Big Daddy will be right. If not, then all the things I've learned in decades of trading are wrong." He keeps slamming the "young guys, who all own the stock and want to own the car". Maybe he should listen to what he's actually saying? All the young people love the stock, the company and the product.
Great analysis esk8mw!
May I suggest the favorite metaphor of this forum's bulls rather than "plucking low hanging fruit?" They are plucking the fish flopping in the mud from rapidly receding coastal waters, failing to recognize that this is a sign of an impending tsunami triggered by the tectonic plate-shifting earthquake that is Tesla/EM. Oh, and the shorts are also out there in that mud thinking they're making easy money with each fat fish they pick up and stuff in their shirts.
I picked up another 25 units of TSLA this morning at 207.29 to finally reach a thousand shares! I'm now headed up to high ground to watch the fools in the mud who failed to heed the signs and the blaring tsunami warning sirens of the 2016Q3 ER!
Ulmo
Active Member
Ok! My purchases today are all in the green. Good start, so far ... got some SCTY long, and TSLA long, and a little protection earlier in the day.
Edit: 11:25PT (14:25ET): Still showing a 3.7% portfolio gain for the day, despite the SP afternoon drop.
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Looks like the last breath of fuming FUD:
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But, right now, it's probably a move to sort of say thank you for the grandfathering of solar regulation in Nevada to Berkshire-Hathaway. For all we know, this was part of the deal. If you want to save the planet, you have to host a fundraiser for Democrats. Just because someone's house has someone in it, does it mean they endorse them? I hope not.
This will manifest differently, and more maturely, in a combined Tesla company. I think this will be interesting to watch post-merger.
Just try out some of the FUD punches, post-merger:
"Coal powered": Nope. Solar powered.
"Not diverse": Nope. Diverse.
"Foreign made": Yes, and USA made, too: New York, Nevada, and California have factories.
"Taxpayer supported": Not compared to coal, oil, etc. How much did your oil wars cost? Who died supporting dirty energy and dirty cars?
Edit: 11:25PT (14:25ET): Still showing a 3.7% portfolio gain for the day, despite the SP afternoon drop.
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So, wait ... CARB is ... NOT EVIL? Huh. That's a twist. Here, I thought they were gaming the system by incentivizing ICE, but they're actually lulling the established brands into a sort of unawake coma long enough for Tesla to cement a position? At least the old companies got some experience with EV's, so when they do wake up, they can actually help save the planet.
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Looks like the last breath of fuming FUD:
They can still say that while Tesla Energy isn't visibly shipping in USA, and while Tesla Solar is still a shareholder vote issue. Within a year (possibly sooner), that all goes away. TE demand is somewhere between solid and frantic, and Solar demand, while a bit harder to quantify due to the capital nature of it, will become a part of the product lineup. I eagerly look forward to tomorrow evening's reveal.
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SCTY has been pretty consistent in cozying up to politicians. I think the regulatory landscape has a lot to do with that. I really hope Tesla doesn't pick sides and become a bean bag for Republicans to punch all the time. It will hurt the Republicans and Tesla, and won't do the country that much good, with the possible silver lining that people like me will respond and straighten out some of the FUD in broad media and it will serve as a type of advertising for Tesla. However, Solar City has been cozying up to politicians all along. Hopefully, under Elon Musk's leadership, their solar division gets more arm's length distance with the politicians.
But, right now, it's probably a move to sort of say thank you for the grandfathering of solar regulation in Nevada to Berkshire-Hathaway. For all we know, this was part of the deal. If you want to save the planet, you have to host a fundraiser for Democrats. Just because someone's house has someone in it, does it mean they endorse them? I hope not.
This will manifest differently, and more maturely, in a combined Tesla company. I think this will be interesting to watch post-merger.
Just try out some of the FUD punches, post-merger:
"Coal powered": Nope. Solar powered.
"Not diverse": Nope. Diverse.
"Foreign made": Yes, and USA made, too: New York, Nevada, and California have factories.
"Taxpayer supported": Not compared to coal, oil, etc. How much did your oil wars cost? Who died supporting dirty energy and dirty cars?
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I just hope the whole brain damage thing that Alex Jones pushes isn't true, otherwise she might forget the favor lol
Mike Smith
Active Member
Whoever was hoping to buy into Tesla's upcoming equity offering is probably buying up shares today instead, which means they're going into strong long hands. Over 10m shares traded so far.
You would think that an intelligent CEO would realize today's short attack on TSLA's excellent ER is entirely possible and would have scheduled additional events in the coming 10 days to redirect the story to a positive one. Oh, never mind ...
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