Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Oh, lets just ignore that at 200 the market recognizes a 20x premium for Tesla's potential. Even some of the nastiest of the seekingalpha bloggers think Tesla should be at 100.

Good.
So we agree that the "market" was not up in arms since that clearly would have had a significant effect on the evaluaton of the potential of the stock.
It was noise in the grand scheme of things, not the market revolting against TSLA.

I picked 100 not because of anything on seekingalpha, but because it was dramatically different from 200. 125, 150, 72.32 were just as random of a number I could have thrown out.

 

[SBenson]

My comment was about the "market being up in arms" about all these issues.

So your assertion is that the market being "up in arms" about all those issues is what kept Tesla from being worth even more? That is what kept the longs from buying even more stock and Fidelity from upping their stake? Well okay then.

I disagree. There clearly was news on all this, but the market wasn't "up in arms'". You want to see up in arms? Look at Twitter, or Theranos or any number of other companies in which the market, public or private, turned against the company.

BTW, aren't those new panels BEAUTIFUL?!
The market seems to really LOVE them, the press has been really positive about them.
Many people here seem to really love how good they look, even though there is an efficiency hit.

And you thought people who dare agree with Elon on the importance of the aesthetics of solar panels were trolls. Why are you so negative on Elon's vision?

This thread is about short term price movements, weird that a you think discussing the valuation has no place here - doesn't the sp depend on people's view of the valuation? LOL.

The valuation issue has been discussed ad nauseam (to the point of nausea). What is new about it? You cleverly seem to interject it into the thread every now and then to keep driving the discussion that way.

Yes, the panels are beautiful. Yet, we all know that they won't have any material impact for an year or so. There is nothing "negative" about it. Except for your sarcasm which is on full display.

 

[roblab]

Very off topic but should be shared.

Before the Flood

Thank you.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think if the solar roofs were operational that Elon would have mentioned that and even showed the power generation. As is though, it seems these were early proof-of-concept roofs that show that solar roofs can look amazing. I think there's still a lot of work to get done.

Btw, I was at the event last night. Hanging with @FredTMC and his wife. Fun time. Great event with great food and not too crowded.

The roofs looked amazing! Even better in person. I couldn't tell that they were solar roofs before the presentation. Out of the 4 houses I speculated that maybe one or two of the houses might have solar roofs but "for sure" not all of them. When Elon said they were all solar roofs, people around me were in shock and disbelief. Guy next to me kept saying "holy sh**, they look amazing." He couldn't stop repeating himself.

The roofs looked better than normal roofs. Everyone at the event was impressed at how good the roofs looked.

I spent a lot of time talking to a Tesla engineer who was answering questions about the new powerwall. The Powerwall 2.0 looks like a hugely improved product over Powerwall 1.0. Looks like the inverter is a 5000 way DC to AC inverter so that battery power can be fed into house (or grid). However, of installing solar you'll still need an inverter for your solar panel system, I was told.

The Tesla engineer said that Powerwall 1.0 install costs we're roughly $7-8k, largely due to the need to install another inverter. So with the new Powerwall, install costs go down dramatically since the inverter is built-in the the Powerwall.

I was also told the solar roof was largely a Solarcity product, meaning development was largely done at Solarcity.

Dave, based on your conversation with Tesla engineer, does Powerwall 2 use new 2170 cells? It is my understanding that it is. If true, it is pretty significant, since PowerWall 2 has been shipping since September, which means that either GF already producing 2170 cells, or they are produced by Panasonic in Japan and shipped to GF.

 

[dennis]

I keep wondering why there was no demo of power generation.

This event was announced over a month ago. Initially it was in San Francisco, likely in a real brand new housing development. There must have been some issues, regulatory or otherwise, which must have prevented them doing it over there. They must have shifted to demo in a studio setting after the San Francisco event plans fell apart.

When San Francisco Bay Area was originally announced, I assumed it would be at Silevo's pilot manufacturing facility in Fremont. If so, maybe Elon decided to have a glitzier demo on the Desperate Housewives set and retrofitting 4 roofs took longer than expected. I do believe they planned to have at least one of the houses functioning.

 

[Value Ev]

What is most puzzling is Elon tweeting on Friday about pulling in the event for 5:30 pm instead of 7 pm for obvious reasons. What could be the obvious reason other than power generation demo? There can only be one explanation as to why the demo didn't happen:
1) there were last minute glitches, or
2) Elon was lying.

My belief is that there were last minute glitches, I hope I am right. If I were right, Tesla would setup a demo house with real power generation by the end of this year. It isn't really that hard. I have seen many school projects on sustainability with demo houses.

3) Didn't want people to miss the ending of Game 3 of the World Series.

What would they actually demo that would be significant beyond the look?
Showing the house seamlessly switching from solar to battery? That ain't new and in fact would take away from the presentation of how great they look.

I thought someone reported in another thread that the tiles were not connected. If that is true, then this was only meant as a demo of the beauty, not meant as a functional demo.

Elon had repeatedly spoke about that value proposition of the aesthetics, so my guess it was never intended to be functional at this point.

Heck, besides how good they looked, I was really impressed by the breakage part of the demo. If I were looking for a new roof, I would buy it just for that reason given all the issues I have had with my current roof tiles. Cleaning the solar panels is an exercise in gently dancing on the roof to prevent other tiles from breaking.

 

[SBenson]

Very off topic but should be shared.

Before the Flood

Very much on topic. Thank you for the link.

 

[Value Ev]

The valuation issue has been discussed ad nauseam (to the point of nausea). What is new about it? .

Weird that you complain about that, but didn't complain when someone recently posted a link in this thread about global warming.
I mean it isn't as if global warming hasn't been discussed "ad nauseam", nor is it as related to the SP as the valuation, and there are plenty of threads about that.

If you are going to complain every time someone posts something that is not new, you are going to be a very busy complainer.

Or do you only plan to complain with "ad nauseam" posts as long as it supports your position?

 

[FredTMC]

Dave, based on your conversation with Tesla engineer, does Powerwall 2 use new 2170 cells? It is my understanding that it is. If true, it is pretty significant, since PowerWall 2 has been shipping since September, which means that either GF already producing 2170 cells, or they are produced by Panasonic in Japan and shipped to GF.

I asked that question to that engineer... "yes" was his answer. Powerwall2 uses the new 2170 cells. I didn't ask if they are Samsung cells or not. I should've asked.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I asked that question to that engineer... "yes" was his answer. Powerwall2 uses the new 2170 cells. I didn't ask if they are Samsung cells or not. I should've asked.

Fred, why do you assume that cells are from Samsung? Seems to be very unlikely. Am I missing something?

 

[3Victoria]

The recent Samsung cells were for Roadster packs. I have not seen docs saying Panasonic make 21-70 cells elsewhere. Possibly early GF output?

 

[vgrinshpun]

The recent Samsung cells were for Roadster packs. I have not seen docs saying Panasonic make 21-70 cells elsewhere. Possibly early GF output?

That is what I think they are. If true it is very significant as it confirms that end of this year ramp is on track. My assumption is that if ramp started in September, by December they should produce significant volume of cells.

Another sign of this is very aggressive pricing on PowerWall, a little more aggressive than I expected at this time. Essentially, if we back out cost of the inverter, the list pricing for battery as a whole alone would be around $350/kWh. I believe they can cell a ton of TE products at this price.

 

[FredTMC]

Fred, why do you assume that cells are from Samsung? Seems to be very unlikely. Am I missing something?

Simply because their was news of some collaboration with Samsung and the chemistry in TE products is different than the auto batteries. The automotive batteries are NCA chemistry and the TE batteries are NMC (manganese - I think).

TE battery chemistry is optimized towards higher lifetime "cycles". TE batteries basically are cycled once per day. Automotive batteries are typically cycled far less like maybe one full equivalent cycle every few days.

I think the TE cells have a lifetime over 5,000 cycles. Far higher than the automotive cells.

I agree that the Powerwall cells are likely Panasonic made, but it would've been nice to get a definitive answer.

 

[FredTMC]

The recent Samsung cells were for Roadster packs. I have not seen docs saying Panasonic make 21-70 cells elsewhere. Possibly early GF output?

Ah... thx

 

[30seconds]

I think that overall funding needs / cash flow breakeven has been the primary drag on the stock. From an investor standpoint a $10B+ company with significant near-term growth is very very hard to find. For me there are three remaining issues:

1. Impact of SCTY merger: We will really need to see the Q4/ Q1 financials to determine if SCTY is a major drag or not. The solar roof is more of a longer term product, but Powerpack and Powerwall 2.0 may significantly shift the direction of the business in the next two quarters.

2. Cash investments needed for Model 3: Tesla has presented a big range in terms of timing and amounts over the previous 2-4 investor calls. The amount seems to be decreasing over time but still a major source of uncertainty. I expect resolution by end of Q1.

3. Timing of Model 3 launch: Due to the Model X issues there is major uncertainty with launch timing of the 3. Clarity by end of Q2

Overall I still see a 20% chance that the company stumbles over the next 6-7 months with regards SCTY financials and Model 3 launch timing. However if GF gets going the cash flow impact from powerpack and powerwall 2.0 may show the market that Tesla's financing risks have been reduced (maybe by end of Q1).

At least we aren't hearing much about how the Model S has very limited demand or how GM/ Mercedes/ BMW "Tesla killer" will put Tesla out of business

 

[andrewt3000]

Here is an article on BBC about how propaganda works... basically if you repeat a lie often enough, people believe it. It immediately made me think of the "Tesla loses money on every car they sell" meme in spite of positive gross margins.

It concludes by stating "If repetition was the only thing that influenced what we believed we'd be in trouble, but it isn't. We can all bring to bear more extensive powers of reasoning, but we need to recognise they are a limited resource. Our minds are prey to the illusion of truth effect because our instinct is to use short-cuts in judging how plausible something is. Often this works. Sometimes it is misleading."

How liars create the ‘illusion of truth’

I just want to say thanks to everyone on this board... if it weren't for you guys and fred and electreck... I'm not sure I would be able to maintain as large of a position as I do in Tesla. Repeated lies is powerful propaganda, and you guys are the social proof that I am not completely crazy and deluding myself.

 

[racer26]

Haven't seen anybody say it yet, but there is an investor event at GF in January.

Powerwalls are supposed to start shipping in volume in January (which I imagine means the ramp will be in the top part of the S curve on cell production)

Coincidence? Methinks no.

 

[FredTMC]

Has anyone here signed up for Powerwall2? I did. $500 deposit.

Trying to gauge if there's been a big response or not. Could have a material effect on the SP if tesla releases Preorders in the coming days/weeks (similar to Model3)

 

[dennis]

The recent Samsung cells were for Roadster packs. I have not seen docs saying Panasonic make 21-70 cells elsewhere. Possibly early GF output?

On the CC They spoke about cells from the GF in the future tense. My speculation is that Panasonic is doing early production of 21-70 cells in an existing facility while they prove out the manufacturing processes in the GF.

 

[dennis]

Has anyone here signed up for Powerwall2? I did. $500 deposit.

Trying to gauge if there's been a big response or not. Could have a material effect on the SP if tesla releases Preorders in the coming days/weeks (similar to Model3)

I doubt they would do that since Elon already spoke of PowerWall 1 demand being "off the hook". They quietly cancelled one version and haven't given any delivery numbers on the other one.