Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

Has anyone here signed up for Powerwall2? I did. $500 deposit.

Trying to gauge if there's been a big response or not. Could have a material effect on the SP if tesla releases Preorders in the coming days/weeks (similar to Model3)

I didn't. I rent the house I live in right now, and it's in one of those townhouse condominium complexes where you can't just decide to install solar without the approval of the condo corp.

My suspicion is that powerwall2 will take a bit longer to achieve high adoption levels than model 3 did. It's a bit tougher to understand why it's a good idea than a car that's cheaper to run than any gas car. I hope I'm wrong on this line of thinking, though.

 

[racer26]

Another thought about 21-70 production at GF:

Perhaps they're using the early Powerpack2 customers (who are big companies and small delays wouldn't be a big deal) for the early part of the production ramp to prove the cell production before going whole hog with Powerwall2 customers.

 

[FredTMC]

I doubt they would do that since Elon already spoke of PowerWall 1 demand being "off the hook". They quietly cancelled one version and haven't given any delivery numbers on the other one.

Yes, power-wall 1 'expressed interest' was "off the hook" according to Elon.

Now, the vastly improved PW2 just launched and you can actually get in line for it... Telsa IS taking preorders. As a residential homeowner, if you have ANY interest in having any of the following then you should get in line:

- Solar with battery (incl going effectively 'off-the grid).
- backup power at home
- lower bills thru time-of-day shifting of your electricity usage

In my case, I'd save money on my utility bill, because I pay over $0.50 / KWh between noon and 6pm from my utility. That's right, I'm not making this up. 50 cents per KWh?! Crazy, right? And I'm on their "discounted" EV plan. Ha

 

[racer26]

Yes, power-wall 1 'expressed interest' was "off the hook" according to Elon.

Now, the vastly improved PW2 just launched and you can actually get in line for it... Telsa IS taking preorders. As a residential homeowner, if you have ANY interest in having any of the following then you should get in line:

- Solar with battery
- backup power at home
- lower bills thru time-of-day shifting of your electricity

In my case, I'd save money on my utility bill, because I pay over $0.50 / KWh between noon and 6pm from my utility. That's right, I'm not making this up. 50 cents per KWh?! Crazy, right? And I'm on their "discounted" EV plan. Ha

Holy crap. My on peak rate is only about CAD$0.18/kWh. Yep. You've got a no brainer on the value proposition of Powerwall there.

 

[TMSE]

Yes, power-wall 1 'expressed interest' was "off the hook" according to Elon.

Now, the vastly improved PW2 just launched and you can actually get in line for it... Telsa IS taking preorders. As a residential homeowner, if you have ANY interest in having any of the following then you should get in line:

- Solar with battery
- backup power at home
- lower bills thru time-of-day shifting of your electricity

In my case, I'd save money on my utility bill, because I pay over $0.50 / KWh between noon and 6pm from my utility. That's right, I'm not making this up. 50 cents per KWh?! Crazy, right? And I'm on their "discounted" EV plan. Ha

Did Tesla reveal actual number of reservations/queries when they spoke of off-the-hook demand for PW1?

Any guess on how many PW2 units can Tesla deliver in 2017?

 

[hobbes]

I keep wondering why there was no demo of power generation.

This event was announced over a month ago. Initially it was in San Francisco, likely in a real brand new housing development. There must have been some issues, regulatory or otherwise, which must have prevented them doing it over there. They must have shifted to demo in a studio setting after the San Francisco event plans fell apart.

What is most puzzling is Elon tweeting on Friday about pulling in the event for 5:30 pm instead of 7 pm for obvious reasons. What could be the obvious reason other than power generation demo? There can only be one explanation as to why the demo didn't happen:
1) there were last minute glitches, or
2) Elon was lying.

My belief is that there were last minute glitches, I hope I am right. If I were right, Tesla would setup a demo house with real power generation by the end of this year. It isn't really that hard. I have seen many school projects on sustainability with demo houses.

Well, I think the reason pulling it forward because in the daylight the roofs did look better than in the dark/artificial light. As for why there was no power generation, the answer was posted on the event thread - not what you wanted to hear though (neither what I wanted to hear):

I spoke to a Powerwall engineer and Solar City engineer at the event.
Solar City guy: Although these tiles have active solar cells, these are not yet interconnected. The specific approach is TBD. [...]

 

[FredTMC]

Did Tesla reveal actual number of reservations/queries when they spoke of off-the-hook demand for PW1?

Any guess on how many PW2 units can Tesla deliver in 2017?

I have no idea how many they can deliver in 2017... but I think investors would love to hear how many pre-orders they've got.

Clearly, how many they can deliver is dependent on production and the allocation between PowerPack and Powerwall. As Elon said, the vast majority of GWhs for TE will go to the PowerPack (for utility-sized installs and commercial installs). However, order-wise, the Powerwall will have far more "orders"

 

[Navin]

two quick questions (jump ball)
1) For the Nov 1 TSLA/SCTY - financial disclosure - what exactly are we expecting - pro-forma combined financial statements??
2) If someone puts a deposit down for model 3 - can they assign their deposit to someone else or do they have to take delivery and then sell on a secondary basis - I'm asking because if assignable - actual deposits are likely going to stay strong vs drop over time --

thanks in advance - pls only answer if you know the answer

 

[FredTMC]

Holy crap. My on peak rate is only about CAD$0.18/kWh. Yep. You've got a no brainer on the value proposition of Powerwall there.

Yep. Electricity is very expensive in Califonia as everyone knows.
It's a great market for adoption of solar and batteries

 

[hobbes]

I doubt they would do that since Elon already spoke of PowerWall 1 demand being "off the hook". They quietly cancelled one version and haven't given any delivery numbers on the other one.

For a non native english speaker - is demand being "off the hook" synonymous to "fish jumping boat" (a phrase Elon used to describe X demand in the earlier times)?!

 

[Papafox]

Has anyone here signed up for Powerwall2? I did. $500 deposit.

Trying to gauge if there's been a big response or not. Could have a material effect on the SP if tesla releases Preorders in the coming days/weeks (similar to Model3)

Holding off on Powerwall purchase for now because my utility and local PUC is still deciding whether adding a battery to my net-metering agreement is seen as a violation of that agreement and greatly reduces the credit I receive when I sell electricity back to the utility. I plan to eventually own 2 or 3 Powerwalls, though (have 11kw of solar on roof).

FWIW, my guess would be a backlog of 50,000-100,000 powerwalls going into quantity production, which translates into $25-$50 million in deposits.

 

[MitchJi]

Dave, based on your conversation with Tesla engineer, does Powerwall 2 use new 2170 cells? It is my understanding that it is. If true, it is pretty significant, since PowerWall 2 has been shipping since September, which means that either GF already producing 2170 cells, or they are produced by Panasonic in Japan and shipped to GF.

I asked that question to that engineer... "yes" was his answer. Powerwall2 uses the new 2170 cells. I didn't ask if they are Samsung cells or not. I should've asked.

The chemistry is not an issue. They have already stated that they can switch chemistries at the GF.

I believe that Panasonic is producing a relatively small number of 2170 cells, probably using modified 18650 equipment in Japan. I think they said on the ER-CC that they haven't started cell production at the GF yet.

 

[FredTMC]

The chemistry is not an issue. They have already stated that they can switch chemistries at the GF.

I believe that Panasonic is producing a relatively small number of 2170 cells, probably using modified 18650 equipment in Japan. I think they said on the ER-CC that they haven't started cell production at the GF yet.

Yes, switching chemistries is easy. Wasn't suggesting otherwise

 

[FredTMC]

Holding off on Powerwall purchase for now because my utility and local PUC is still deciding whether adding a battery to my net-metering agreement is seen as a violation of that agreement and greatly reduces the credit I receive when I sell electricity back to the utility. I plan to eventually own 2 or 3 Powerwalls, though (have 11kw of solar on roof).

FWIW, my guess would be a backlog of 50,000-100,000 powerwalls going into quantity production, which translates into $25-$50 million in deposits.

Yep, that's my guess... I think tesla will have 10s of thousands of Powerwall orders very quickly.

 

[MP3Mike]

Dave, based on your conversation with Tesla engineer, does Powerwall 2 use new 2170 cells? It is my understanding that it is. If true, it is pretty significant, since PowerWall 2 has been shipping since September, which means that either GF already producing 2170 cells, or they are produced by Panasonic in Japan and shipped to GF.

I suspect that the Powerwall 2 does use 2170s cells, but it doesn't start shipping until December at the earliest.

The Powerpak2 has started shipping in September, but we don't know if it is shipping with 18650s or 2170s. I assume 18650s otherwise Tesla would have said that cell production had already started in the Quarterly release instead of saying that they were still on track to start cell production at the Gigafactory "later this year".

 

[mmd]

Yes, power-wall 1 'expressed interest' was "off the hook" according to Elon.

Now, the vastly improved PW2 just launched and you can actually get in line for it... Telsa IS taking preorders. As a residential homeowner, if you have ANY interest in having any of the following then you should get in line:

- Solar with battery (incl going effectively 'off-the grid).
- backup power at home
- lower bills thru time-of-day shifting of your electricity usage

In my case, I'd save money on my utility bill, because I pay over $0.50 / KWh between noon and 6pm from my utility. That's right, I'm not making this up. 50 cents per KWh?! Crazy, right? And I'm on their "discounted" EV plan. Ha

No, those were also quoted as "preorders" and "reservations" back then. $800M in preorders in just 7 days.
Barely a week after Tesla's Powerwall battery was announced, it's sold-out to mid-2016

For your own situation, please do some basic math. Discounted EV plan is not for 24 hour charging; read the terms of your rate plan
Install solar, and send back the excess solar power to grid during those peak hours, cut back on your high tier rates as your total consumption comes down. Why would you store that power in the battery at 90% efficiency, when your utility will pay you the most to supply them, at $0.50/kwh? Do some research on net metering.

And shouldn't you be at work during those hours of noon to 6 p.m. weekdays? May be, you stay home on weekdays or are retired. In that case, you should choose a flat rate plan, and cut the high tier rates with solar alone. Payoff should be in 6-7 years.

 

[FredTMC]

Please do some basic math. Install solar, and send back the excess solar power to grid during those peak hours, cut back on your high tier rates as your total consumption comes down. Why would you store that power in the battery at 90% efficiency, when your utility will pay you the most to supply them, at $0.50/kwh? Do some research on net metering.

And shouldn't you be at work during those hours of noon to 6 p.m. weekdays? May be, you stay home on weekdays or are retired. In that case, you should choose a flat rate plan, and cut the high tier rates with solar alone. Payoff should be in 6-7 years.

Yes, I know all about net metering. Thanks. Focus of my discussion was on Powerwall2, not solar.

Regarding solar, Once I install the new Tesla solar roof, I could benefit from net metering of course,,. But, I'd much rather store my excess in my batteries and go completely "off-grid". This is what I'll do.

However, even though I'll be effectively "Off- grid", I'll still maintain my connection to the grid. If my powerwalls are full and I have periods of excess power, I'll be happy to sell my power back to the utility. Hey, it's great for the grid.

BTW, my wife and I both work from home

 

[andrewt3000]

Hey guys... I recently correctly called a few things the media and analyst were getting wrong about autopilot.

Here is the latest I suspect they are getting wrong:

Did Tesla lose 200 million miles of data?


Here is the older article where I call it about the radar and more obvious autopilot changes

Tesla, MobileEye, and deep learning

 

[vgrinshpun]

I suspect that the Powerwall 2 does use 2170s cells, but it doesn't start shipping until December at the earliest.

The Powerpak2 has started shipping in September, but we don't know if it is shipping with 18650s or 2170s. I assume 18650s otherwise Tesla would have said that cell production had already started in the Quarterly release instead of saying that they were still on track to start cell production at the Gigafactory "later this year".

Yes, you are right, the PowerPack 2 not Powerwall 2 were shipping in September.

I, however, am very skeptical about being able to increase capacity of Powerwall 2 by just improving pack architecture similarly to P100D and increase in dimensions. That would also require different from PoweWall pods. I think that all indications are that Tesla started to receive 2170 cells from Panasonic's Japanese factories.

If they are indeed getting 2170 from Japan, it means that while GF 2170 cells will go to TE and then M3, perhaps Hapanese factories will be switching to 2170 cell for MS/MX as well.

 

[Papafox]

Can I get some help transcribing words in the 3Q ER, spoken by Elon at about the 34:17 mark?

Kallo: (Said how he was relieved to see Panasonic step in to the Buffalo factory). Can you tell me more about that. I also saw this slide deck yesterday about how their business model is changing from lease to more cash sales or loan sales ... what do you expect going forward from a cashflow basis? I know they said Q4 but can this be cash accretive (grow, add) to the business next year? Thanks.

34:15
Elon: I expect both ____ to be approximately cashflow neutral, all things considered, next year. It depends upon how fast we ramp up Buffalo (comment about cash cow when “cash vacuum” likely what you meant). We do think it’s important to have tight controls over the solar panels in order to have a beautiful solar roof product it’s important to iterate rapidly and have them exactly the way we want them so that you have very high efficiency cells at the lowest cost, that’s our objective. We’ve been able to do that with Panasonic on the battery front. We have to best cell at the best price. That’s a really good place to be.

I have two questions. When Elon said "both" was he speaking of both the lease side and the cash or purchaser-financed sales side of SCTY? If not, what did he mean by "both"?

Secondly, where I have entered "____", did Elon say "to do" or did he say something else?

For short-term trading, the answers to these questions are important because they will influence our expectations going into Tuesday evening's SolarCity discussion. If Elon is going to tell us that both the lease side (PPA) and the cash or purchaser-financed sides of SCTY should be approximately cashflow neutral in 2017, that is hugely positive. Please help me understand whether I have transcribed and interpreted the words correctly. Thx.