Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

@dha Please stop disliking almost all of my posts without providing any sort of comment. I'm making this a public post, because you have not responded to my messages and it's beginning to get annoying.

 

[Turing]

I believe that an HRC victory and the vote on the 17th could trigger a nice SP bump.

I think that TE showing a significant amount on the Q4 ER and or SCTY being even close to cash flow neutral after the merger could trigger a upward shift in the trading range. If that happens that could be the last time we see sub $200.

Any upside potential to the solarcity q3 CC?

 

[Turing]

@dha Please stop disliking almost all of my posts without providing any sort of comment. I'm making this a public post, because you have not responded to my messages and it's beginning to get annoying.

If you ignore someone I don't think they can dislike your posts...?

 

[dc_h]

Anybody find Ron Barron's comment about when he first investing in tesla car battery pack cost was 22k and now it is low teens and in 5 years it will be around 5k a car. Any new info here?

About 4 minutes into the interview.
Summary: Tesla started at 22,000 when he invested (22,000 for a P85 battery), versus low teens now, which implies they are already below 150 per KWh already. With no 2170 batteries going into cars yet, the implication is they are on track for closing in on 100 per KWh in the next 18 months. He states, 5000 for a pack in 5 years, so I extrapolate that to 50 per KWh, but I don't think we know that yet. If they are approaching $100 per KWh by end of 2017, Model 3 margins could be better than WS expects.

 

[Papafox]

The upturn at the end of regular trading hasn't stopped yet. TSLA currently trading at 191.20.as of 4:43pm. Opening on Monday could be fun if the macros and election news don't spoil it.

 

[brian45011]

Well, may be you can clarify what you mean, but if you are implying that he said that electrons are stored in the wire for a later use throughout the day, he did not. The quote in your post is not accurate.

Below is the transcription, starting at 3:20 mark. He described peak demand that need to be matched by the corresponding peak in power generation, not storage of electrons in the wires for use later in the day.

"So, there is a wire, and when you turn it on in the morning you have peak power. Peak power is because you are filling up that wire, that pipeline, with electrons. And then when you use the electrons, as you use it through the day, you are picking one or two electrons at a time. So initially a surge in power, surge in demand, then it goes down. The electric power plant, the grid is not being used at its full capacity. You have to have more than you need by about twice. So if you can level load in some way, then you can have twice as much power produced from the existing plants as you produce presently. Twice as much. So the reason this is such an interesting transaction for Tesla is that they are going to be massive producers of batteries at very low cost."

So what time in the morning do they fill up "that pipeline with electrons" Personally I try to use no more than several electrons each day ( I may sin on the week-ends).

Ronnie is over his head. He thinks the grid is akin to a fluid (liquid) system rather than an electrical circuit.

 

[dha]

If Tesla has secretly added transparent/glass Solar Panels on the Model 3, as Elon just hinted, Tesla basically just guaranteed the Model 3 is at least 5-10 years ahead of every other company.

Wouldn't this mean the Model 3 is capable of receiving a partial - full change without needing to be plugged in?

This would be amazing for many reasons.

1) Superchargers would be for 300-500 + mile trips, any vehicle included in the Tesla Fleet, or any vehicle that is regularly parked in a garage. They would also be for the 100,000-200,000 vehicles that won't have this feature.

a) This would be the answer to the question of Tesla plans to have enough Superchargers for millions of Tesla vehicles.

2) The Model 3, and future Tesla vehicles would basically have 300-500 + miles of range, without Tesla having to increase the size of the battery, since the vehicles can be charged while in use. Right?

Let's do some quick back-of-the-envelope math.

BMW 3 Series Footprint: 9 m^2, for comparison.

Best case, the entire surface is perpendicular to the sun's rays and 100% covered in solar glass. On average, the sun delivers about 1 kW of energy per m^2 of the earth's surface during peak hours. A place like Los Angeles gets the equivalent of around 6 peak hours per day, on average. So if parked outside all day long, that means 6 kWh of solar energy hits each m^2 our Model 3 * a cell efficiency of let's say 17% = about 1 kWh per day. It just doesn't make any sense. Best case, 3-5 miles of range per m^2 in exchange for leaving your car parked in direct sunlight during the hottest hours of the day?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

It seems like the way they designed the roof panels it could be applied with cars doesn't it?

Completely agree. Also, I don't see why this technology couldn't be sold to every other Automobile Manufacturer. The total addressable market is potentially infinite since it can likely be used in most vehicles, buildings, and devices.

 

[austinEV]

If Tesla has secretly added transparent/glass Solar Panels on the Model 3, as Elon just hinted, Tesla basically just guaranteed the Model 3 is at least 5-10 years ahead of every other company.

Wouldn't this mean the Model 3 is capable of receiving a partial - full change without needing to be plugged in?

This would be amazing for many reasons.

1) Superchargers would be for 300-500 + mile trips, any vehicle included in the Tesla Fleet, or any vehicle that is regularly parked in a garage. They would also be for the 100,000-200,000 vehicles that won't have this feature.

a) This would be the answer to the question of Tesla plans to have enough Superchargers for millions of Tesla vehicles.

2) The Model 3, and future Tesla vehicles would basically have 300-500 + miles of range, without Tesla having to increase the size of the battery, since the vehicles can be charged while in use. Right?

As @mmccord said you just don't gain much energy with a roof. Fred Lambert summarized it very well: Tesla Model 3 will probably have a solar roof option – maybe even ‘deployable’, says CEO Elon Musk

Basically a roof-sized panel gets you 1:1 hours:miles. So 5 hours of sun gets you about 5 miles of range. And that assumes you park your nice car in the blazing sun. In many climates that is a losing strategy.

What it WOULD be useful for is to counteract vampire drain so you could park your car at the airport indefinitely without fear. (in the sun, not the expensive covered parking )

Edit: Didn't mean to pile on.

 

[hockeythug]

If Tesla has secretly added transparent/glass Solar Panels on the Model 3, as Elon just hinted, Tesla basically just guaranteed the Model 3 is at least 5-10 years ahead of every other company.

Wouldn't this mean the Model 3 is capable of receiving a partial - full change without needing to be plugged in?

This would be amazing for many reasons.

1) Superchargers would be for 300-500 + mile trips, any vehicle included in the Tesla Fleet, or any vehicle that is regularly parked in a garage. They would also be for the 100,000-200,000 vehicles that won't have this feature.

a) This would be the answer to the question of Tesla plans to have enough Superchargers for millions of Tesla vehicles.

2) The Model 3, and future Tesla vehicles would basically have 300-500 + miles of range, without Tesla having to increase the size of the battery, since the vehicles can be charged while in use. Right?

Try like 3-5 miles of range.

 

[Ulmo]

To save everyone a google search they are similar to ISS:
Glass Lewis - Wikipedia

What is the relative weight of Glass Lewis vs. I.S.S.? (Before today, I thought one was a window and the other was a space station.)

 

[vgrinshpun]

OK, on the chance you want to understand, I'll explain it differently.

The year over year increase in deliveries for the third quarter was an increase of 114%--24,821 in 2016 versus 11,603 in 2015. The Danish component in 3Q15 was 335 deliveries, so if Denmark kept proportionally apace in the third quarter one would expect 716 deliveries for 3Q16. However, because of a change in tax related subsidies, there has been a severe contraction in Danish demand, and only 28 were delivered in 3Q16, a shortfall of 688 equivalent to 2.8% of the world-wide deliveries (668/24,821)

The short fall becomes more severe in 4Q16 because of a stellar quarter in Denmark last year. If the 2016 average quarterly delivery holds for the fourth quarter, the expected shortfall is 2,624, nearly four times the third quarter short fall and a full 10.5% of fourth quarter guidance of 25,000.

It's too early to predict whether guidance can be achieved, but the demand contraction in Denmark means the rest of the markets have to do much better.

This is not what I could not understand. I explained in my post that I do not understand the relevance of this for the Q4 deliveries, if the same kind of situation with massive reduction of deliveries in Denmark did not keep Tesla from delivering 24,821 cars in Q3.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Let's do some quick back-of-the-envelope math.

BMW 3 Series Footprint: 9 m^2

Best case, the entire surface is perpendicular to the sun's rays and 100% covered in solar glass. On average, the sun delivers about 1 kW of energy per m^2 of the earth's surface during peak hours. A place like Los Angeles gets the equivalent of around 6 peak hours per day, on average. So if parked outside all day long, that means 6 kWh of solar energy hits our little car * a cell efficiency of let's say 17% = about 1 kWh per day. It just doesn't make any sense.

I suppose you think Elon is lying? His Tweet is very straight forward.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So what time in the morning do they fill up "that pipeline with electrons" Personally I try to use no more than several electrons each day ( I may sin on the week-ends).

They fill it more in the morning to match the morning surge in demand, less when demand falls later.

 

[Papafox]

So what time in the morning do they fill up "that pipeline with electrons" Personally I try to use no more than several electrons each day ( I may sin on the week-ends).

Baron was clearly making an oversimplification of how electricity works, but for many it was a useful oversimplification.

That said, both Brian45011 and vgrinshpun are undeniably intelligent contributors to this forum and the chances of determining who is the brightest by jousting over such an issue is just plain silly. Hoping you two call off the feud. You're both highly respected and we want to keep it that way.

 

[TMSE]

Let's do some quick back-of-the-envelope math.

BMW 3 Series Footprint: 9 m^2

Best case, the entire surface is perpendicular to the sun's rays and 100% covered in solar glass. On average, the sun delivers about 1 kW of energy per m^2 of the earth's surface during peak hours. A place like Los Angeles gets the equivalent of around 6 peak hours per day, on average. So if parked outside all day long, that means 6 kWh of solar energy hits our little car * a cell efficiency of let's say 17% = about 1 kWh per day. It just doesn't make any sense.

Good premise. But, let us change the numbers a little bit. Effective surface area of glass roof on M3, that gets exposed to sunlight is about 3 m^2. Cell efficiency of solar cells that Tesla uses is 22%. That is about 4kwh. At about 4 miles/kwh, you get about 16 miles of range, good enough for most daily commutes.

 

[trils0n]

Deployable solar shield, just like Dragon's solar panel array. I like Elon's sense of humor.

Either way, I'm sure Elon isn't claiming it would be useful for anything other than running cabin overheat protection (a fan) or trickle charging the 12v. There simply isn't enough area on a car roof to generate useful (for charging purposes) amounts of electricity.

 

[hockeythug]

More crap Musk keeps alluding will be on the Model 3. Hilarious. He really can't help himself. I hope zero resources are currently being spent on this solar car roof.

 

[RobStark]

If you ignore someone I don't think they can dislike your posts...?

Not only can they dislike your post but it shows up in your alerts. Very annoying.

 

[dha]

I suppose you think Elon is lying? His Tweet is very straight forward.

I don't know what's going on in his head. Maybe he's joking around or trolling or something. He did once tweet that he stays awake by doing "large amounts of crack". I do think he was lying about that!

"Pencils Down" on Model 3 design was supposed to be back in July. Do you think he was lying then, or is he really toying with the idea of adding exotic new features to the Model 3 with 1 year left to the beginning of production?

Just do the math. What kind of surface area would such a contraption need in order to supply useful range? How would you park it if the "canopy" extends well beyond your car's footprint?