Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[kenliles]

I do have faith, just not blind faith

Clapton is God...

 

[AudubonB]

I believe it is a typo. Another source shows that the price target is $338.

In any case, Baird is fun to read (and so is Cowen for bears). But firms like these have no sway in market what so ever in my view. If anything at all, big wall street investment banks may have some sway as they have relationships with big/institutional investors.

Here are the current ratings and price targets coming from big investment banks.

Firm.....Recommendation....Price Target

Morgan Stanley....Equalwt/Cautious....245
RBC.....................Sector Perform........220
Goldman Sachs...Neutral/cautious......190
J.P.Morgan..........Underweight............180
Barclays..............Underweight............165
UBS.....................Sell..........................160

Not a single Buy rating... hmmm....

That statement, even when couched as your view, is dangerous in its ignorance. Wall Street - that is, both the Buy and Sell sides - very much is aware that any number of the finest sector analysts reside either in second tier or in boutique firms, and those analysts' opinions are extremely valued. There are any number of reasons a top-ranked analyst has not, does not and never will work for Goldman or Morgan.

That said, the biggest powerhouses' overall stable of analysts is as impressive as are their own trading desks and their equity- and bond-raising abilities. But never, ever dismiss any single analyst's view solely because he or she doesn't work at Goldman, Morgan or the like. Or even in NYC as a location!

 

[Krugerrand]

I do have faith, just not blind faith

I've seen enough evidence that it's not blind faith to me.

 

[techmaven]

I suspect that today and the next few days is critical from a short term trading perspective on the narrative of the TSLA/SCTY merger. As a result, I expect some bear attacks. But also, if TSLA/SCTY holds, then we might see some short covering. I think we saw some yesterday.

 

[Krugerrand]

4) Did Elon say Model 3 production would begin in about 3 months?

No, he did not.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is a puzzling claim, since the primary cost of traditional permanent roofing is labor.

Okay. @SBenson, Your comment doesn't make sense. Price will vary based on which option you choose. What part of this do you not understand?

 

[Value Ev]

This is a puzzling claim, since the primary cost of traditional permanent roofing is labor.

Only puzzling if you miss the trend.
Car: build factory then build the machines that build the machines.
Roof: install manually then build the machines that build the installers.

It will all be automated.
Tesla Secret Plan Stage 3. Book it.

 

[SBenson]

That statement, even when couched as your view, is dangerous in its ignorance. Wall Street - that is, both the Buy and Sell sides - very much is aware that any number of the finest sector analysts reside either in second tier or in boutique firms, and those analysts' opinions are extremely valued. There are any number of reasons a top-ranked analyst has not, does not and never will work for Goldman or Morgan.

That said, the biggest powerhouses' overall stable of analysts is as impressive as are their own trading desks and their equity- and bond-raising abilities. But never, ever dismiss any single analyst's view solely because he or she doesn't work at Goldman, Morgan or the like. Or even in NYC as a location!

AudubonB, You seem to be referring to the quality of the research. I am referring to the access/influence of the research. Does Baird, Cowen, et all reach and influence big/institutional money? My impression was they don't. But willing to accept if you have evidence of such.

 

[Ovulation]

Definitely have to hire engineers to game the system.

Well we know they have already a very innovative software team

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

No, he did not.

You sure? Someone asked a question that was a little hard to understand about the Model 3 that sounded like when will production begin. Elon laughed, said it wasn't the right moment for the announcement, but said something about in 3 months.

 

[Kenypowa]

You sure? Someone asked a question that was a little hard to understand about the Model 3. Elon laughed, said it wasn't the right moment for the announcement, but said something about in 3 months.

He said the final unveil of Model 3 is coming in 3 or 4 months. That's when we will will know what the final interior will look like. Probably spaceship like

 

[FredTMC]

1) None of the lawsuits attempting to stop the merger have any merit.

2) Shareholders and leading independent firms overwhelmingly support the merger.

3) Shareholders had the opportunity to ask all the questions they could possibly have about the merger.

3) Elon's comment about Solar Roof costing the same as a non Solar Roof is huge.

4) Did Elon say Model 3 production would begin in about 3 months?

5) Even if Trump increases subsidies for Coal and new oil exploration, and eliminates subsidies for Solar, (a very unlikely scenario that would be extremely idiotic and probably illegal), demand for the Model 3, and SolarCity roofs won't be effected.

5a) If Trump cut incentives for EVs and Solar and increased incentives for oil, coal, etc. he would be killing all automobile manufacturers except for Tesla.

6) Elon's comment about the supply chain for roofs being extremely inefficient is very interesting and almost guarantees SolarCity roofs will cost a lot less than anyone thinks.

Model 3 "Part 3" reveal in 3-4 months...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

He said the final unveil of Model 3 is coming in 3 or 4 months. That's when we will will know what the final interior will look like. Probably spaceship like

This means production is almost certainly ahead of schedule. Surprised no-one has mentioned this.

 

[AlMc]

I've seen enough evidence that it's not blind faith to me.

That goes back to a difference in our frame's of reference.

Yes, I am one of those longs that should stop the proverbial short attacks on the SP instead of sitting on cash/investing in other companies vs TM. I still have significant assets in TSLA but the last two years, while seeing wild swings, have seen the advancement in the SP stagnated especially compared with other FATMAN stocks.

From my frame of reference, as an investor, I have better opportunities elsewhere at the moment.

So, I have my train ticket and maybe the train leaves without me or I catch it just in time to make the caboose and I am left with less steak and a half glass or chilled red wine ( say it ain't )....Such is the risk in investing and trying to figure out the time frame between when you hear the sizzle and when you see the steak.

 

[Papafox]

I suspect that today and the next few days is critical from a short term trading perspective on the narrative of the TSLA/SCTY merger. As a result, I expect some bear attacks. But also, if TSLA/SCTY holds, then we might see some short covering. I think we saw some yesterday.

Yes, I think today is a day when the bears/shorts hope to induce some panic in the longs and send the SP down by selling enough to simulate longs who are disenchanted with the merger jumping ship. The problem is that the remaining longs don't panic. The weak longs have already departed and with the likelihood of a good Q4 and 2017, I just don't see a morning dip causing longs to push the sell button. Today is one of their last hopes for shorts in a while of getting a really nice dip so that they can use it to exit.So far, the fish don't seem to be biting and they're using up their ammo.

 

[MissAutobahn]

Part 3 might be NOT the final reveal. Final reveal could be number 5, or 6, after july next year

 

[kelevra]

What has changed between the shorts and TSLA now is that time is no longer on their side. When the Q3 delivery numbers were released and the Q3 ER came out, longs like myself were looking to take some profits before reducing exposure a bit because of the presidential election and the SCTY merger vote. Longs saw potential negatives ahead. Now, these factors are gone, and replaced with the very real likelihood that Q4 delivery numbers and Q4 ER could be very good. Tesla Energy is cranking up and Model 3 remains on schedule while drawing closer. Time is now working against the shorts. Further, there's no black cloud hanging over Tesla any more. At some point TSLA breaks out to the upside. It's only a matter of time.

don't you think we got the most risky combination (trump+ successful merger)? well markets didn't react that strong, but for the business itself this is the highest risk and it's not going away anytime soon.
i think the next year is a crucial period for tesla and wouldn't be surprised if the SP tanks at some point in time during that year.
could be quite soon when the merger is completed and former SCTY investors sell their stock or if there are some bad news in macro terms. furthermore i think and hope tesla is going raise capital (dilution or bonds) to derisk the business. This could also be negative for the SP if it's an equity raise or the bond conditions are not that favorable. I'm also not 100% satisfied with em's comments about the 30% tax break for solar. Sure the solar roof would be great but i think it would take some time to scale it (production, installation capacity, consumer education - some people want to see how good the roof is on other houses first, etc). Therefore the lions share will be the classic solarcity business for some time. Or am i wrong about this? Does anyone know how the production ratio: solar panel/solar roof in buffalo will be?

 

[Ulmo]

The conspiracy people think that Tesla (the guy) invented free energy and the government, which is of course, for them, a puppet of the fossil fuel industry hide the invention from us the people, So it's funny that after 100 years Tesla brings free energy to the market

No, not free. And, kind of dissimilar in a lot of ways that make it just sort of analogous, not predictive in any way; I find it just historically interesting, not predictive of future events.

Tesla's Tower of Power
Tesla's Big Mistake?
Speculations on Tesla's Power Transmission "World System" Wardenclyffe.

I fleshed out what I'm guessing your conspiracy theory was a bit more, and I don't see anything there at all about it being free. As far as anyone can tell, it was just a transmitter (of energy and information), although no one seems to claim to know for sure. Similarly, I don't see anything about Tesla Roof's products being free.

I understand the impetus that a rich successful Nikola Tesla + Morgan Stanley could have used a successful energy transmission network to locate a high number of high energy collectors around the Earth and keep the cost of electricity relatively sensible. Back then, if you were to only harness a small portion of water gravity flow (dams, etc.), you would have more electricity than the whole of all humanity ever used. (That was soon realized, and many dams were made, and since then, we have found more uses for energy than even they can provide, so not at all free.) That might have seemed "inexpensive" to some because of the relative ease of implementation and relative lack of expense compared to wired networks, but hardly free. Morgan Stanley loved the idea of rapid communication, but didn't like the idea of his existing energy empires being toppled, especially when he realized that he might lose profit control once a Tesla Tower system was set up (due to lack of security against who uses the "wires" or who could offer energy that they had collected from gravity or other sources, taking away monopoly on both sides of the system).

So, in essence, it was not free, and furthermore, the fact that it was not free but had some theft concerns might have been a part of why it was scrapped, and furthermore, the possibility that it may have allowed lower cost cleaner alternatives to be used was another competitive threat for the financier, and finally, it had a completely different financial structure which threatened to destabilize Morgan Stanley's existing systems.

It also had the enormous risk that some suppliers could have used extremely dirty fuels, far away from users, and made a huge amount selling into the Tesla Tower Network at a huge detriment to Earth's inhabitants. We might have had global climate problems 100 years sooner because of Tesla Towers, and without the space race, it's anybody's guess when we would have invented solar panels; perhaps 50 years sooner, but too late, whereas perhaps we are not too late today. (We can hope.)

I find some similarities to today, though: your FUD that it was free (it's not free); Morgan Stanley not liking the idea of cleaner energy (it is better, therefore people want it, therefore it is a threat to dirty energy concerns, which interestingly causes a force to be applied to dirty energy that causes it to try to remain actually dirty and actually evil, so that there is never an incentive to stop using it in any way due to cleaner or less evil versions of it -- something we have started to break through already, thankfully, so once again, now a false analogy with Tesla Motors by far, but can easily explain a great proportion of the modern FUD); M.S. also not liking the idea that it had a different model, therefore changing the way things are done.

I found more use in JB Straubel's Mexico speech (recent Electrek article (

)) about innovation this month than I did reading about Nikola Tesla's Towers. I highly recommend his speech to anybody thinking of building a company. (Although, I did find Tesla Towers interesting in and of themselves, from a non-business perspective, or to understand existing and historical economic choices.)

 

[Ovulation]

That goes back to a difference in our frame's of reference.

Yes, I am one of those longs that should stop the proverbial short attacks on the SP instead of sitting on cash/investing in other companies vs TM. I still have significant assets in TSLA but the last two years, while seeing wild swings, have seen the advancement in the SP stagnated especially compared with other FATMAN stocks.

From my frame of reference, as an investor, I have better opportunities elsewhere at the moment.

So, I have my train ticket and maybe the train leaves without me or I catch it just in time to make the caboose and I am left with less steak and a half glass or chilled red wine ( say it ain't )....Such is the risk in investing and trying to figure out the time frame between when you hear the sizzle and when you see the steak.

I agree I only went in to play the SolarCity/Tesla merger game as suggested by Kallo otherwise I would have waited till it's becomes clear that SolarCity is not a cash burning nightmare and Tesla energy (Powerwall, Powerpack) becomes real (Goldman ignores TE) ... Q4 or Q1 earnings, hmmm hopefully Q4

Why It’s a Good Time to Play the Tesla-SolarCity Merger

 

[uselesslogin]

Sorry guys if this causes the stock to drop but I would argue that this is not poetry:

To the tune of Tubthumping by Chumbawamba:

It gets knocked down, but it goes up again
Shorts are never gonna keep it down
It gets knocked down, but it goes up again
Shorts are never gonna keep it down
It gets knocked down, but it goes up again
Shorts are never gonna keep it down
It gets knocked down, but it goes up again
Shorts are never gonna keep it down
It gets knocked down, but it goes up again
Shorts are never gonna keep it down

The shorts articulate, they can't prognosticate
See the plan's a bust, they say in gas we trust
We sing songs that remind us that it can improve
We sing songs that remind us that we better move
(Oh Elon Musk, Elon Musk, Elon Musk)

--refrain--

It gets knocked down, (we'll be buying)
but it goes up again (tossing the fud away)
You are never gonna keep it down (though you're trying)

------

Thanks for being part of my favorite cult.